I went 7-9 against the spread last week.

I’m glad to be back with my regular NFL betting content. I had a physical issue during the cold stretch and my arms were numb due to my ongoing neck issues. I deal with intermittent numbness, but this was next level. I had very little coordination in my hands and it made typing a slow, typo-ridden experience.

This time of the year, you need to be knowledgeable about different playoff-clinching scenarios. There are a few teams that can clinch spots and it doesn’t look like any team will bulk rest their starters.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (+10) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 11-4 outright and 9-6 record against the spread. They are coming off a 40-34 home win over the Eagles. Dallas scored thirteen unanswered points to finish the game. They made some adjustments in the second-half and were able to pass the ball well. They needed QB Dak Prescott to step up since they had trouble running the ball.

The Titans are 7-8 outright and 8-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-14 home loss to the Texans. They have lost five-straight games and look like they are punting the rest of the season. Rookie QB Malik Willis isn’t ready and they are clearly limiting the playbook. The offense is just short passes and designed runs.

The Cowboys defense should have a lot of success against the Titans. If they force Willis into passing situations, they could get some turnovers. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 4-11 outright and 7-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-16 overtime home loss against the Buccaneers. They had to start QB Trace McSorley and he wasn’t a complete embarrassment. He’s a solid third-string quarterback, which isn’t a huge compliment. He’s athletic who can extend plays with his legs. The Cardinals offense needs a lot of help, but they can win games against bad teams.

The Falcons are 5-10 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-9 road loss to the Ravens. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is a tad more NFL-ready than Titans’ QB Malik Willis, but it isn’t huge difference. Atlanta needs a strong rushing performance to contend weekly.

This could be an ugly game. Cardinals have a chance to win outright if QB Colt McCoy (concussion) can get cleared. This is most likely a coin-flip game, so I have to take the points.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Bears are 3-12 outright and 5-9-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-13 home loss to the Bills. The Bears hung with the Bills in the first-half, but they were outscored 29-3 in the second-half. They couldn’t run the ball and they need a strong ground game to give QB Justin Fields a chance.

The Lions are 7-8 outright and 10-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-23 road loss to the Panthers. Detroit’s defense will give up points, but their run defense was shit. You can’t win games in the NFL if you give up 300+ rushing yards. It doesn’t matter how well your offense has been, it’s impossible to keep up with that production.

The Bears will try to replicate the Panthers rushing attack this week. I highly doubt they will have anywhere near that kind of production. The Lions still have some hope to earn a spot in the playoffs. They probably need to win both of their final games. I think Lions QB Jared Goff will put up solid numbers against the Bears pass defense. I’m taking the Lions to cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (+4.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 7-8 outright and 7-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-3 road win over the Jets. This time last month, the Jags season looked to be almost over. They have outright won four of their last five games. QB Trevor Lawrence has taken a big leap this month.

The Texans are 2-12-1 outright and 7-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-14 road win over the Titans. The Texans have covered three-straight games and the splitting time between quarterbacks Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel is paying off. They have an awful running game without RB Dameon Pierce, so they need solid production from their quarterbacks.

It’s really hard to bet against Jacksonville right now. The Texans have been keeping games close of late, but I think they are properly rated this week. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover on the road.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 4-11 outright and 6-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 51-14 road loss to the Rams. The loss was so bad that Denver fired first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. He was the worst NFL head coach since his Week 1 disaster. He was hired to be an offensive guru, but his offense has been dog water all season.

The Chiefs are 12-3 outright and 4-10-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 home win over the Seahawks. It was also their first cover since October 23rd. Their defense has been pretty rough and they haven’t been able to extend leads this year. It also doesn’t help that QB Patrick Mahomes chemistry with his receivers hasn’t been there this season. He has to lean on TE Travis Kelce when the game is on the line.

It’s really hard to bet on the Broncos with their track record, but teams have fared well in their first game after firing their head coach this year. The last time these two teams met, the Chiefs won 34-28. It was one of the few games QB Russell Wilson looked like his former self. I have to take the points in this game.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Dolphins are 8-7 outright and 7-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 26-20 home loss to the Packers. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions and played most of the game with an unnoticed concussion. He is now in concussion protocol and QB Teddy Bridgewater will most likely finish the regular season at quarterback.

The Patriots are 7-8 outright and 7-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-18 home loss to the Bengals. They have now outright lost four of their last five games. They now need a lot of help to make the playoffs.

The Patriots can help out their playoff situation if they win this game. The Dolphins can be in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card spot with a win, but they’ve been awful on the road. Miami needs their defense to help Bridgewater. I think the Patriots can move the ball and cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-5) – My pick is New York Giants

The Colts are 4-10-1 outright and 6-9 record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-3 loss to the Chargers on Monday Night Football. The offense was overall worse with QB Nick Foles. They could have started Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger and either replicated their offensive output, or performed better. It looks like they are playing for a draft slot.

The Giants are 8-6-1 outright and 11-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Vikings. They gave up the game in the fourth quarter, but they’ve covered four of their last five games. QB Daniel Jones was fantastic in the loss and has improved throughout the year.

I’m not saying that the Colts are a cupcake opponent, but the Giants should clinch a Wild Card spot with an outright win. I’m also taking the Giants to cover at home.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints are 6-9 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 win over the Browns. It was an awful game to watch and both teams deserved a loss. The Saints need a little tomfoolery to win games right now. I like how they are using Taysom Hill lately.

The Eagles are 13-2 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 40-34 road loss to the Cowboys. They’ve performed well with backup QB Gardner Minshew, but his defense failed him. Minshew isn’t totally in the clear as he threw two picks in the loss.

The Eagles are in a unique position this week, as they can help their draft position with a win. Philadelphia own the Saints first round pick and they really want to win this game. It appears that the Eagles are starting Minshew again this week and I think he will have success. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are 6-9 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-23 home win over the Lions. They ran the ball with great success and amassed 320 yards on the ground. They have been a solid team since QB Sam Darnold took over as starter. He’s been smart with the ball and isn’t turning the ball over like previous Panthers quarterbacks.

The Bucs are 7-8 outright and 3-11-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-16 overtime road win over the Cardinals. It was way too close of a game and many lost money with that outcome. It’s pretty crazy that a Tom Brady-led team was forced into overtime by Trace freakin’ McSorley. Tampa Bay hasn’t covered a game since November 13th.

The Panthers will ride or die with their running game. The Bucs have struggled stopping the run this season. Carolina’s two-man rushing attack has had a couple stinkers against the Steelers and Ravens, but they’ve dominated against bad defense. I have to take the points in this game.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-2) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are 6-9 outright and 7-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 home loss to the Saints. QB Deshaun Watson hasn’t been good since taking over for Jacoby Brissett. I would guess that they would have earned a playoff spot had they just kept Brissett as the starter.

The Commanders are 7-7-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 37-20 road loss to the Niners. They’ve ran into a buzzsaw and were spanked. The Niners are arguably the best team in the league, so the outcome was predictable. Also, it appears that Washington is going with QB Carson Wentz as the starter for the rest of the year.

It’s really difficult to even put a penny on a Carson Wentz-led team. I think I have PTSD from last season. This could be an ugly game to watch and I have to take the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders (+6) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 11-4 outright and 10-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-20 home win over the Commanders. They had a strong second-half and rookie QB Brock Purdy leaned on TE George Kittle. They have now covered six-straight games.

The Raiders are 6-9 outright and 7-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-10 road loss to the Steelers. QB Derek Carr had an awful performance with three interceptions and just 174 yards. The Steelers defense has been very good of late, but they shot themselves in the foot.

The Niners are the best team in the NFL, so it’s hard to bet against them. Purdy has been great in his role and RB Christian McCaffrey is a game-changing back. I have to take the Niners to cover on the road.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are 7-8 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-3 home loss to the Jaguars. They got awful output from their quarterback position. QB Zach Wilson was awful and was benched for QB Chris Streveler, which shocked everyone. They won’t have to worry about either quarterback this week, as QB Mike White was cleared from his rib injury.

The Seahawks are 7-8 outright and 6-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 road loss to the Chiefs. Seattle has been pretty bad in the second-half of the year. RB Kenneth Walker III fell back down the Earth and Seattle’s own run defense has hit a rough stretch.

The Jets have a slight chance of still making the playoffs and Mike White gives them their best shot. They need a lot of help and I think they take care of business against Seattle and cover.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Vikings are 12-3 outright and 6-8-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Giants. They only need one more win to secure homefield advantage in the playoffs, but the Packers might be a bad opponent. They know each other so well, so throw out the records, it will be a battle.

The Packers are 7-8 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 26-20 road win over the Dolphins. Their defense played really well and secured their third-straight outright win. Had one of their earlier games went their way, they’d be a team to watch in the postseason.

This should be a fun game to watch. The Packers have a hot hand and they could play spoiler this week. I still think the Vikings will get homefield advantage because they face the Bears next week. I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 5-10 outright and 6-8-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 51-14 home win over the Broncos. Their defense made big plays and put their offense in a great position. QB Baker Mayfield has been great since taking over as the starter.

The Chargers are 9-6 outright and 9-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-3 road win over the Colts. It was a fairly easy since for the Chargers and they secured a spot in the playoffs. There isn’t much I can say about it other than the Colt are awful right now.

The Rams are hot right now and the Chargers can’t help their playoff position. I have to go with the Rams for the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 7-8 outright and 8-6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 13-10 home win over the Raiders. Pittsburgh’s defense has been outstanding of late and they have a shot at winning every week.

The Ravens are 10-5 outright and 6-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-9 home win over the Falcons. Baltimore is limping into the playoffs and haven’t scored more than 17 points since November 27th. Their offense is a struggle without QB Lamar Jackson.

The Steelers defense is one of the better squads in the league and should do well against the Ravens. It’s unknown if Lamar Jackson will suit up this week, but I think head coach John Harbaugh will wait another week. I’m taking the points in this game.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills are 12-3 outright and 7-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-13 road win over the Bears. Buffalo’s defense had some rough games in the middle of the season, but they’ve been able to regain their early season form. They are in a battle with the Chiefs to secure homefield advantage in the AFC.

The Bengals are 11-4 outright and 12-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-18 road win over the Patriots. They have outright won and covered seven-straight games. QB Joe Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league during this stretch.

This could be an AFC Championship preview. Cincinnati is on fire and the Bills secondary will need to be perfect on Monday night. It’s hard to bet against Burrow and I have to take the points in this game.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 119-113-8

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob