I went 6-9 against the spread last week.

I’ve been hovering around .500 for the entire month of November and I start December with a stinker. I hope to break my steak of mediocrity with a strong finish to the regular season.

This will be our last week with byes and we will have full slate of sixteen games after this week. I love having more opportunities every week, especially now that the college football regular season is over.

Can the Cowboys cover a huge point spread against the Texans?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 5-7 outright and 6-6 record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-20 road win over the Chargers. QB Derek Carr wasn’t very accurate in the win, but the Chargers didn’t have an answer for WR Devante Adams or RB Josh Jacobs. The Raiders run defense stepped up in the win as well.

The Rams are 3-9 outright and 4-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-23 home loss to the Seahawks. It was their sixth outright loss in-a-row (2-3-1 ATS). Their running game made enough plays to keep them close, but QB John Wolford turned the ball over too many times.

The Rams are close to packing it in for the season. They claimed QB Baker Mayfield off waivers and he may even start in place of Wolford (neck). I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams went with QB Bryce Perkins since it’s a short week. The Raiders running game should help extend a lead late in this game. I’m taking the Raiders to cover on the road.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are 8-4 outright and 4-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 10-9 home win over the Broncos. As a viewer, I’ve came to the conclusion that ever Broncos game will be awful to watch this season. Denver’s defense is pretty darn good, but their offense is dog water. QB Tyler Huntley scored a late touchdown to get the win.

The Steelers are 5-7 outright and 6-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-16 road win over the Falcons. They have outright won three of their last four games. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett isn’t forcing throws anymore and he’s getting a lot of helped some his running backs the last few games.

The quarterback play will be key in this game. It appears that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is week-to-week and could miss this game. Huntley is good enough to keep the Ravens playing at a high level. Pickett will need to be patient this week since the Ravens secondary is loaded with ball hawks. They will make it difficult for Pickett on Sunday, so I’m taking the points.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns are 5-7 outright and 6-6 against the spread this season. They are coming of a 27-14 road win over the Texans. QB Deshaun Watson started his first game in nearly two full years, but his performance was subpar. They didn’t score an offensive touchdown in the win. Watson should give the defense some Rolexes for bailing him out.

The Bengals are 8-4 outright and 9-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Chiefs. They scored ten unanswered points to close out the game. The return of WR Ja’Marr Chase really enhanced the play of QB Joe Burrow. They should get RB Joe Mixon back soon, but RB Samaje Perine has been pretty damn good in relief.

The Browns offense should go back to the same offense Jacoby Brissett ran this season. Watson didn’t look comfortable last week, but he may just needs reps for the game to slow down for him. I like the Bengals right now and I’m taking them to cover at home.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are 7-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-22 road loss to the Vikings. The Jets were down 20-3 in the second quarter and White was good enough to make it a one-score game in the fourth quarter. I think the Jets have the right guy at quarterback right now.

The Bills are 9-3 outright and 6-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 road win over the Patriots. New England’s offense was never consistent. They had a lot of quick, uneventful drives and the Bills just drained the clock. Buffalo nearly had a 2:1 ratio in time of possession.

The Bills announced that during LB Von Miller’s knee procedure, they found that he tore his ACL, thus ending his season. He has been such an MVP for their defense and will be missed. The Jets are still an underrated team and I think this betting line is a little too bloated, so I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars are 4-8 outright and 4-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 40-14 road loss to the Lions. The Jags offense has been pretty good of late, but they struggled against the Lions. Detroit was able to run the ball and choke the clock. It was clear that the Lions watched tape and focused on eliminating WR Zay Jones, who they only allowed two receptions on seven targets for 16 yards.

The Titans are 7-5 outright and 8-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-10 road loss to the Eagles. The Titans running game was nonexistent and they couldn’t stop Eagles WR A.J. Brown. It was so bad that the Titans fired their general manager after the game, the guy who traded Brown to the Eagles.

Last week’s loss, was the first non-competitive game the Titans have played since Week 2. I want to chalk up Titans RB Derrick Henry’s poor performance up to the Eagles getting rookie DT Jordan Davis back from injury. I think the Titans will bounce-back this week and cover at home.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Texans are 1-10-1 outright and 4-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-14 home loss to the Browns. They just made too many mistakes on offense and allowed a punt return touchdown. The Browns basically scored in every non-offensive manner in the win. The Texans really should have won that game.

The Cowboys are 9-3 outright and 8-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 54-19 home win over the Colts. It was a close game until the fourth quarter, then the Cowboys absolutely unloaded on the Colts. They scored 33 unanswered points in one of the most lopsided quarters in recent history. The Cowboys running backs were railroading the Colts late in the game.

The Texans are consistently losing by double-digits right now. It’s probable that it will happen again this weekend, since the Cowboys could be the best team in the entire league right now. This point spread is a bit crazy, but the talent gap between these teams is just as large. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 11-1 outright and 7-5 record against the spread. They are coming off a 35-10 home win over the Titans. The return of rookie DT Jordan Davis fix all of the Eagles run defense issues. They limited Titans RB Derrick Henry to less than three yards per carry. The Eagles looked like a Super Bowl contender again.

The Giants are 7-4-1 outright and 9-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-20 tie against the Commanders. It was an exciting game, but too many drives ended in field goal attempts. Both teams had multiples shots at points in the overtime session, but it didn’t work out. Both teams’ quarterbacks impressed me in the tie.

The Giants need their running game to have a lot of success to stay competitive. As I said before, the Eagles run defense is a scary animal with Davis healthy. The Giants are missing too many receivers to win a game if they are forced into a one-dimensional, passing gameplan. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 10-2 outright and 6-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-22 home win over the Jets. The Vikings defense did a lot of bending in the game, but they only allowed field goals until late in the fourth quarter. The Jets were able to take away WR Justin Jefferson’s big-play ability. He only gained 45 yards on seven receptions in the win.

The Lions are 5-7 outright and 8-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 40-14 home win over the Jaguars. Detroit’s offense had one hell of a November. Everything is working for them right now. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is putting together a Pro Bowl-caliber year and their running game has been fantastic in the red zone. Also, QB Jared Goff is winning over fans in Detroit and many now see him as a long-term option.

This might be the best game of the weekend. If the Vikings defense can limit the Lions to some field goals, they can keep this within the spread. The Lions defense don’t have a similar weapon to stop WR Justin Jefferson. I’m taking the points in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+9.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Chiefs are 9-3 outright and 3-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Chiefs. It was the first top-tier opponent the Chiefs have faced since late-October. They’ve been playing down to their opponents and they came into the game a bit dull. The Bengals were the better team in the fourth quarter and pulled away.

The Broncos are 3-9 outright and 4-8 against the spread. Denver might be one of the most unwatchable teams of all-time. They have some legit talent on defense, but watching their offense is like pulling teeth. They are not a well-coached team and QB Russell Wilson has a lot of issues right now.

It’s really hard to put a single penny on the Broncos, but their defense should be able to keep it within double-digits. The Chiefs are often overrated in point spreads and this line should probably be +7.5. I’m taking the points in this game.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Panthers are 4-8 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Broncos 23-10 at home. They’ve been riding their running backs of late. They have covered in five of their last six games, but have been awful on the road.

The Seahawks are 7-5 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-23 road win over the Rams. QB Geno Smith had a big game, but he isn’t getting much out of his backfield lately. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III came out of the gate on fire, but teams have bottled him up. The Seahawks are on a three-game losing streak against the spread.

The Panthers are 0-5 outright on the road and the Seahawks should be able to pass on the Panthers. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Buccaneers are 6-6 outright and 3-8-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-16 home win over the Saints. They needed a superhuman comeback performance from QB Tom Brady. It was the first time Brady looked like his former self all season. He can’t do it all the time, but he still has some magic left.

The 49ers are 8-4 outright and 7-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins. They lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a foot injury and rookie QB Brock Purdy stepped in and kept the board afloat. He was pretty darn good at Iowa State, so I don’t think there is a huge talent drop. The Niners have a lot of talent on offense and they can step up to help out the rookie quarterback.

This is a big of a coin flip game, but I think the NIners are a bit underrated due to Jimmy G’s injury. I’m expecting running backs Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell will get a lot of touches. I’m taking the Niners to cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (+3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 8-4 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-17 loss to the Niners. Miami turned the ball over too many times and Niners backup QB Brock Purdy did a phenomenal job in relief. I was surprised that the Dolphins didn’t have much success on the ground.

The Chargers are 6-6 outright and 7-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Raiders. They couldn’t get their running game going and they couldn’t stop Raiders RB Josh Jacobs. They have now outright lost four of their last six games.

I like the Dolphins and I think they just had a bad outing against the Niners. I wish this spread was a point or two smaller, but I still think the Dolphins can cover this field goal spread on the road.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Patriots are 6-6 outright and 6-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-10 loss to the Bills. Their offense just stuttered on offense and the Bills running game kept the Patriots defense on the field. It wasn’t a good performance and the Bills showed they were a tier above the Patriots in the AFC.

The Cardinals are 4-8 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Chargers 25-24. They have outright lost four of their last five games. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is getting red hot in Arizona.

This is a coin-flip game. I think these talent-levels of these teams are near-equal. The Cardinals haven’t been a consistent cover of late and I think this spread has swayed enough in their favor that they are a good play this week. I’m taking the points at home,

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 98-90-7

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob