Last week, I went 15-10 against the spread during Week 13 of the college football season.
Conference Championship Week is here!
I like this year’s slate of championship games. I expect most of these games will be tight and the point spreads reflect that. There are a couple double-digit point spreads, but you expected larger point spreads in the Purdue/Michigan and LSU/Georgia games.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick every college football game against the spread during the Conference Championship Weekend of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (December 3rd, 2022).
Utah vs USC (-2.5) – My pick is USC Trojans
The Utah Utes are 9-3 outright and 7-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 63-21 road win over a bad Colorado squad. Utah had a 42-0 lead at halftime and they rested their starters early in the second-half. There isn’t much you can glean from the win other than they are among the best teams in the Pac 12.
The USC Trojans are 11-1 outright and 8-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-27 home win over rival Notre Dame. It was an important win since beating Notre Dame in his first season is a huge feather in the cap for head coach Lincoln Riley.
This should be a fun game to watch. I’m expecting a high-scoring affair similar to their meeting in October. The Trojans got the 43-42 win in Utah that saw USC QB Caleb Williams throw five touchdown passes. This should be another close one, but I think USC wins this by a few more points and gets the cover in Las Vegas.
Kansas State vs TCU (-2.5) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
The Kansas State Wildcats are 9-3 outright and 8-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 47-27 home win over Kansas. That wouldn’t normally be a nice win, but the Jayhawks have a strong offense this season. The Wildcats are a better team with QB Will Howard under center, which has been a huge surprise after QB Adrian Martinez went down with his last injury a few games ago.
The TCU Horned Frogs are 12-0 outright and 9-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 62-14 home win over Iowa State. It was a big statement win against a good team. They’ve been ‘surviving’ games lately, so it was nice to get their first blowout win in months.
Even though I like both of these starting quarterbacks, this game will be won on the ground. If TCU can stop Kansas State’s running game, they should win by double-digits, but the game could be turned around if KSU can break some big runs. I expect this will be another tight game, but I think TCU will cover by a small margin.
UCF at Tulane (-3.5) – My pick is UCF Knights
The UCF Knights are 9-3 outright and 7-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 46-39 road win over South Florida. They barely survived the game and scored the go-ahead touchdown in the final seconds of the game. They’ve impressed me with their quarterback depth since QB John Rhys Plumlee has been dogged by an injury the last month. QB Mikey Keene has been pretty damn good in relief.
The Tulane Green Wave are 10-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 road win over Cincinnati. They’ve really turned it on of late and finished the year winning seven of their last eight games. RB Tyjae Spears is one of the best running backs in the conference.
In their meeting in mid-November, UCF beat Tulane 38-31. Plumlee didn’t have a great day passing, but UCF were outstanding on the ground. They gained 336 rushing yards, which was the most given up by Tulane all year. Tulane may very well win this game outright, but I like UCF. I think they can keep it close, so I’m taking the points in this game.
LSU vs Georgia (-18.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
The LSU Tigers are 9-3 outright and 7-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-23 road loss against Texas A&M. I worried that LSU were vulnerable for an upset since their spot in the SEC Championship game was already locked. QB Jayden Daniels didn’t play great and he injured his ankle in the loss. He is expected to play in this weekend’s game.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 12-0 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-14 home win over Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs have been able to spank bad teams, but covers have been difficult against other top teams in the SEC. Their best cover was against Tennessee, but they failed to cover against Florida and Kentucky.
Georgia is arguably the best team in the nation, but this point spread is advantageous. It would take a near-perfect game to cover this large of a spread against LSU. I know Daniels has a foot injury, but I just don’t see Georgia covering, so I’m taking the points.
Clemson vs North Carolina (+7.5) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
The Clemson Tigers are 10-2 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-30 loss to South Carolina. It was rough timing since they ran into a quarterback (Spencer Rattler) who caught fire at the end of November. The loss may keep them out of the College Football Playoff field.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 9-3 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-27 overtime loss to NC State. They ended the season with back-to-back outright losses. QB Drake Maye had two of his worst performances to end of the year. Their running game needs to help the young signal caller.
I’m probably not going to watch this game on Saturday. These two teams are good on paper, but they are flawed. The ACC has been the weakest Power 5 conference and the winner will be a fitting champion. I’m taking the points in this game.
Purdue vs Michigan (-16.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
The Purdue Boilermakers are 8-4 outright and 5-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-16 road win over Indiana. QB Aidan O’Connell ended the year strong with three-straight outright win. He had some struggles in late-October, but recent success is the reason Purdue is appearing in the Big Ten Championship game.
The Michigan Wolverines are 12-0 outright and 7-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off an impressive 45-23 road win over Ohio State. They were able to blow out the Buckeyes with RB Blake Corum only receiving two carries. His knee injury just wouldn’t hold up and was pulled. Corum is getting surgery on it this week. RB Donovan Edwards busted two long touchdown runs. His breakaway speed will be a problem in the coming years.
The Boilermakers have struggled against the best Big Ten defenses this year. They only put up three points against Iowa in early November. Also, they’ve allowed some big rushing totals in conference play (Indiana had 215 rushing yards last week). Michigan will just be too much for Purdue on both sides of the ball. I’m taking Michigan to cover in Indianapolis.
Toledo vs Ohio (+2.5) – My pick is Ohio Bobcats
The Toledo Rockets are 7-5 outright and 4-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-14 road loss to Western Michigan. It was their second outright loss in-a-row and they have failed to cover in five-straight games. The loss of QB DeQuan Finn nearly derailed the season. He returned last week, but he didn’t play at a high level.
The Ohio Bobcats are 9-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 38-14 home win over Bowling Green. Ohio’s defense is a bend, but don’t break crew. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, but they don’t allow that many points per game (compared to other MAC teams).
I feel like Ohio is underrated right now. You will have heart palpitations while watching this game, but I think their defense does enough to keep it tight, so I’m taking the points in Detroit.
QUICK HITS
Akron at Buffalo (-11.5) – My pick is Akron
Coastal Carolina at Troy (-8) – My pick is Troy
Fresno State at Boise State (-3) – My pick is Boise State
North Texas vs Texas-San Antonio (-9) – My pick is North Texas
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 177-143-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.