I went 7-6-1 against the spread last week.
I need a big week after back-to-back 7-6-1 weeks. I’ve traditionally been very strong on Thanksgiving, but we will see. One of these years I’ll go back and figure out my Thanksgiving record. I’m writing this up late-Wednesday night, so there isn’t time to do that this year.
We are starting to see more double-digit point spreads, which happens more and more from late-November through the end of the season.
Can the Chiefs cover a 15-point spread over the Rams?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (+9.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 7-3 outright and 5-4-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 31-23 home win over the Browns. They’ve been able to run the ball much better in recent weeks. It’s great timing since it will take some time before QB Josh Allen’s throwing elbow can take 40+ passing attempts. I do worry a little about their pass defense of late, so that’s something to keep an eye on going forward.
The Lions are 4-6 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-18 road win over the Giants. They ran the ball well and it’s something they should focus on right now. The Lions passing game is WR Amon-Ra St. Brown or nothing. They are on a three game winning streak (3-0 ATS) heading into this game.
The Lions winning streak has been quite flukey, so I can see why the betting line is near-double-digit the night before kick-off. The Bills should be able to run on the Lions front-seven and their defense could turn the Lions offense into a one-dimensional attack. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) – My pick is New York Giants
The Giants are 7-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 31-18 home loss to the Lions. QB Daniel Jones put up some big numbers through the air because RB Saquon Barkley could barely make it across the line of scrimmage. The Giants offense is dealing with a lot of injuries and they lost WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) for the rest of the year. They still have a defense that can keep them in games.
The Cowboys are 7-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off an impressive 40-3 road win over the Vikings. It was a bloodbath from the second quarter onward. RB Tony Pollard had one of his best games as a pro and their defense just locked down the Vikings passing offense.
An argument can be made that the Cowboys are overrated heading into this game. It’s not surprising as they just destroyed one of the best teams in the entire league. The Cowboys will most likely win this game, but I think the Giants can keep it within double-digits, so I’m taking the points.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Patriots are 6-4 outright and 6-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off an ugly 10-3 home win over the Jets. Their offense was awful against the stout Jets defense. They needed a miraculous late-minute punt return touchdown to keep it from going into overtime. The Patriots defense (and Zach Wilson’s inaccuracy) bailed them out.
The Vikings are 8-2 outright and 4-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a brutal 40-3 home loss to the Cowboys. The game got out of hard before halftime and they even subbed out QB Kirk Cousins late in the game. It’s hard to pinpoint what went wrong since it was a catastrophic collapse. I doubt we will see another outcome like that from the Vikings.
Minnesota will not look like the team that showed up against Dallas. The Patriots are a flawed team and I trust the Vikings passing offense a lot. The Vikings will give up some big plays through the air, but I still think they should cover at home.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 3-7 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 22-16 overtime home loss to the Raiders. It was a pretty rough game to watch as a whole. Too many drives ended prematurely, especially in the second-half. Both teams should have gotten the L after that one. The Raiders should have won that game by double-digits.
The Panthers are 3-8 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-3 road loss to the Ravens. This was another rough game to watch. They were neck-and-neck until late in the fourth quarter. The Panthers couldn’t move the ball and QB Baker Mayfield threw two picks. The Panthers have some young talent on defense, but their offense lost this game.
This will most likely be an awful game to watch. It will be ugly football as a whole. I like the Broncos offense more with RB Melvin Gordon out of the way. I expect RB Chase Edmonds will move into his former role and have more success. I’m taking the Broncos to cover this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Buccaneers 5-5 outright and 3-6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Seahawks 21-16. They laid off the gas a little too earlier and Seattle nearly fought their way back It was nice to see the Bucs be able to run the ball again, but I doubt it will be consistent.
The Browns are 3-7 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-23 loss to Buffalo that was played in Detroit due to a blizzard. They couldn’t run the ball well, but was surprised that QB Jacoby Brissett threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns.
Browns will have QB Deshaun Watson under center soon and Brissett is playing for his next job. He’s been pretty darn good of late, and if he gets some help from his backfield, should rack up some positive stats against the Buccaneers. I’m taking the points in this game.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are 7-3 outright and 4-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 13-3 home win over the Panthers. They played down to their opponent’s talent level. They turned it on in the fourth quarter to seal the win. The Ravens backfield injuries have taken its toll on the offense. They will be better when they can get running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins back.
The Jaguars are 3-7 outright and 3-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 27-17 to the Chiefs. It was a push against the spread and needed a late touchdown to pull it within that total. The Jaguars passing offense is starting to look more like the squad that started the year off hot. WR Christian Kirk needs to be the focus of the offense if RB Travis Etienne gets bottled.
The Jaguars will give a bettor some glimpses of hope one week, then shit the bed by beaten by below average teams like the Texans and Broncos. The Ravens have won four-straight outright (2-2 ATS) and are a little underrated in this game. I’m taking the Ravens to cover on the road.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-12.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Texans are 1-8-1 outright and 4-5-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 23-10 home loss to the Commanders. They were down 20-0 at the half and QB Davis Mills failed when the offense was on his shoulders to come back. RB Dameon Pierce only got 12 total touches, and that’s a huge reason for their defeat.
The Dolphins are 7-3 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Browns 39-17. Their offense has been dynamite since acquiring RB Jeff Wilson Jr. and QB Tua Tagovailoa is playing as well as he did before suffering those nasty concussions.
The Texans announced they are starting QB Kyle Allen in place of Mills this week. It’s a questionable move as Allen hasn’t lit up the win column as a starter in the NFL. Mills did show some signs of a possible franchise leader over the course of the last season and a half, but the Texans just don’t have the talent to do much on offense. The Dolphins should cover this double-digit spread on Sunday.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-6) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Bears are 3-8 outright and 4-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Falcons. The Bears were able to run the ball well in the first-half, but their offense hit a wall. Fields even suffered an injury to his AC joint in his shoulder late in the game. He’s currently listed as questionable for this game. We would see QB Trevor Siemian if Fields is unable to play this week.
The Jets are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a cataclysmic 10-3 loss to the Patriots. They lost the game when the Patriots ran a punt return back for a touchdown in the final minute of the game. QB Zach Wilson was awful on the field and was a dumb ass in the post-game press conference. The Jets announced that QB Mike White will be starting this week against the Bears.
The Jets would probably have a better record had QB Joe Flacco kept the starting job. Wilson has been a negative to the team on offense and White is probably an improvement. The Jets defense is amazing and their offense doesn’t need to score 30+ a week to win games. I’m taking the Jets to bounce-back this week and cover at home.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Bengals are 6-4 outright and 7-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-30 road win over the Steelers. QB Joe Burrow threw for 355 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. He is prone to throwing picks when he the offense can’t run the ball. He has some Brett Favre-like gunslinger moments of trying to make too much happen. He should get his favorite weapon WR Ja’Marr Chase back for this week’s game.
The Titans are 7-3 outright and 8-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-17 road win over the Packers. Rookie WR Treylon Burks is becoming a legit weapon for Tennessee in the passing game. He is turning into the player they thought they had when they signed WR Robert Woods. If they can consistently keep the opposing team’s safeties back, that would open up some big gains for RB Derrick Henry.
This should be a close game as I like both teams right now. The addition of Chase back into the offense makes taking the Bengals enticing, but the Titans are a scary team when they can be a little less predictable on offense. I am taking the points in this game.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4) – My pick is Washington Commanders
The Falcons are 5-6 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Bears. They leaned on the running game in the win. It will most likely be their gameplan moving forward since TE Kyle Pitts went down with knee injury that could cost him most, if not all, of the regular season. QB Marcus Mariota hasn’t been the impact player I thought he would be for the Falcons.
The Commanders are 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-10 road win over the Texans. it wasn’t a pretty game for the Commanders offense, but their defense came up big in the win. They have improved throughout the year and were helped when they won’t have to deal with QB Carson Wentz turning the ball over with back field position.
The Commanders have outright won five of their last six games (5-0-1 ATS) and are sticking with QB Taylor Heinicke as their starting quarterback. They are a tough team to run on and Mariota would need a strong passing attack to score points. I’m taking the Commanders to cover at home.
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are 5-5 outright and 7-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-27 home loss to the Chiefs. The Chargers played better than expected in that game. They had the lead for most of the game, but the fourth quarter saw a back-and-forth tilt. They couldn’t stop Chiefs TE Travis Kelce late in the game.
The Cardinals are 4-7 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-10 loss to the Niners in Mexico City. Backup QB Colt McCoy starting another game, but he was not effective against the Niners. Arizona’s secondary was torched and gave up four passing touchdowns. It appears that QB Kyler Murray will be healthy enough to start this week.
The Cardinals secondary will have a hard time against Chargers QB Justin Herbert. This wide receivers are getting healthy again and will be hard for any team to cover, let alone the subpar Cardinals. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
The Raiders are 3-7 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-16 road win over the Broncos. It was a game the Raiders should have won by double-digits, but they failed a few too many times on third down. It’s hard to explain how they didn’t put up more than 16 points in regulation when QB Derek Carr racked up over 300 passing yards and Josh Jacobs was over 100 yards on the ground.
The Seahawks are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Bucs 21-16 in Germany. They snapped a four-game outright winning streak (4-0 ATS) with that loss. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III had his worst game as a pro and was a non-factor in the running game. QB Geno Smith was pretty darn good, but he got no help on the ground.
The Seahawks are a good team and they very well could be a sneaky team in the postseason. Their playoff berth is not a given and needs to rack up some wins to keep up with the Niners. The Raiders have shit the bed against good teams this year. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.
Los Angeles Rams at Kanas City Chiefs (-15) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 3-7 outright and 2-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Saints. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game since September 18th. Their offense is even worse without QB Matthew Stafford, who hasn’t been good either. They released RB Darrell Henderson Jr. after the loss. The Rams might be completing packing it in with another loss or two.
The Chiefs are 8-2 outright and 3-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-27 road win over the Chargers. They turned it on late in the fourth quarter. QB Patrick Mahomes connected with TE Travis Kelce for two touchdowns in the period. Rookie RB Isiah Pacheco is playing very well in the increased role.
The Rams announced that QB Bryce Perkins will start against the Chiefs. He doesn’t have the passing ability of Stafford, but he is an athletic talent. I think that extra wrinkle in his game could turn the Rams offense up a few levels. The Chiefs will most likely win this game by more than a touchdown, but this spread is inflated by a few points. I’m taking the points in this game.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The Saints are 4-7 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Rams. It was a nice bounce-back win and cover after two-straight stinkers. QB Andy Dalton threw three touchdown passes and threw a beautiful deep pass to WR Chris Olave in the third quarter.
The Niners are 6-4 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-10 win over the Cardinals in Mexico City. Their offense has been insane with RB Christian McCaffrey and the addition of once-injured talents like RB Elijah Mitchell and TE George Kittle. They might be one of the best teams in the entire league right now.
This betting line is a little tough, but it’s hard to bet against the Niners this week. The Saints have been pretty bad on the road and Dalton tends to have an underwhelming game after a game like he had against the Rams. I’m taking the Niners to cover at home.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Packers are 4-7 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off 27-17 home loss to the Titans. The Packers pass defense has regressed since the start of the season. Their offense has been able to score enough points and they abandon their run game too early. Green Bay are falling into the ‘bad team’ category.
The Eagles are 9-1 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-16 road win over the Colts. This is the third-straight game game that they failed to cover. They are definitely overrated right now due to winning so much in the first-half of the year. They are still a very good team and should be able to cover against bad teams.
I just don’t like what I’ve been seeing from the Packers. It wouldn’t surprise me if they start benching starters soon. I think the Eagles cover this game big on Sunday Night Football.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers are 3-7 outright and 4-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-30 home loss to the Bengals. It was the best performance from the offense this season. Their defense didn’t fare as well. That’s the situation they will be battling all season. The Steelers need to score 30+ points to keep them competitive.
The Colts are 4-6-1 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles. The Colts had a ten-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, but they allowed QB Jalen Hurts to make too many big plays in the fourth quarter. The Colts defense did have a good game overall, but they need to play all four quarters.
This isn’t the best Monday Night Football matchup, but we will see how rookie QB Kenny Pickett will perform on a big stage. The Colts are a better team with QB Matt Ryan under center and will keep them in this game. The Steelers are tough against the run, so Ryan will need a good game. I think the Colts will cover a close one at home.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 83-74-7
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob