Last week, I went 12-12-1 against the spread during Week 11 of the college football season.
I’ve had three-straight weeks of near-.500 results, so I need to snap this streak of averageness.
We are in the ‘rivalry game’ section of the year. Schools often have more than just one rival, so the next two weeks are big games for most schools, regardless of their records.
Can USC head coach Lincoln Riley get his first rivalry win against UCLA?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 12 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (November 19th, 2022).
Illinois at Michigan (-18) – My pick is Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illinois Fighting Illini are 7-3 outright and 6-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-24 home loss to Purdue. It wasn’t a good showing on either side of the ball. I have a feeling that they may have been looking past the Boilermakers. Purdue finished strong and Illinois ran out of time.
The Michigan Wolverines are 10-0 outright and 6-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-3 home win with RB Blake Corum gaining another 162 yards on the ground. I don’t know if he will win the Heisman Trophy, but he will most likely be invited to New York for the presentation. A lot of the Heisman stuff will probably be settled next week when he faces Ohio State.
I’m not sure how much Michigan will be focused on Illinois, knowing that next week’s Ohio State game could determine a CFP spot. The Fighting Illini are a good team and could sneak up on a team. I don’t think Illinois will win, but they could keep it close for most of the game. I’m taking the points on Saturday.
TCU at Baylor (+2.5) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU Horned Frogs are 10-0 outright and 8-1-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-10 road win over Texas. Their defense was too much for Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers to handle. Hell, they even stopped RB Bijan Robinson in his tracks.
The Baylor Bears are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off an embarrassing 31-3 home loss to Kansas State. KSU is a good team, but that was an unexpected outcome. QB Blake Shapen threw two picks and wasn’t himself that game.
If Shapen played that poorly against Kansas State, he will have trouble against TCU. Even if he comes into this game at his peak, he could have issues against TCU. I’m taking TCU to cover on the road.
Georgia at Kentucky (+22.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs are 10-0 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-19 road win over Mississippi State. They easily covered the 16.5 spread, as Mississippi State tends to get taken to the cleaners by the best SEC teams. They just couldn’t pass on Georgia’s stellar defense.
The Kentucky Wildcats are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 24-21 home loss to Vanderbilt. It was Vandy’s first SEC win in a handful of years. The Wildcats haven’t been playing great since Levis went down with an injury in early October. Levis has been back for a few games, but they’ve been in first or second gear since he returned.
Kentucky can hang with the mid-tier SEC teams, but they are often smoked by teams like Georgia and Alabama. Kentucky’s offense could struggle, so I’m taking Georgia to cover at home.
Texas at Kansas (+9.5) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks
The Texas Longhorns are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 home loss to TCU. QB Quinn Ewers completed less than half of his attempts and RB Bijan Robinson only gained 29 yards on twelve attempts. TCU’s defense can make an offense look like they don’t belong.
The Kansas Jayhawks are 6-4 outright and 7-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 43-28 road loss to Texas Tech. They have a pair of solid quarterbacks, but QB Jalon Daniels is back on the injury report after injuring his shoulder. Backup QB Jason Bean has more than held his own and would be a hot commodity if he decides to transfer next season.
Texas should be able to run on Kansas on Saturday, but the Jayhawks have some studs in the passing game. I don’t see Texas winning by more than double-digits in this game, so I’m taking the points.
Miami (FL) at Clemson (-19.5) – My pick is Miami (FL) Hurricanes
The Miami Hurricanes are 5-5 outright and just 2-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-14 road win over Georgia Tech. It was a huge improvement for the Canes as it was their first cover against the spread since Week 1. Backup QB Jacurri Brown played really well and could get the start this week due to his play against the Yellow Jackets.
The Clemson Tigers are 9-1 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-16 home win over Louisville. They limited QB D.J. Uiagalelei’s workload and focused on running the ball. That’s probably the best plan for Clemson’s offense. They have some talent in their backfield and I don’t trust Uiagalelei’s arm beyond ten yards.
Clemson will most likely win this game, but I don’t see them racking up a lot of points. The Hurricanes are a good team when they take care of the ball. I like what I saw from Brown last week and think he should get the start over Tyler Van Dyke. I’m taking the points in this game.
Tennessee at South Carolina (+21.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
The Tennessee Volunteers are 9-1 outright and 8-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 66-24 home win over Missouri. Tennessee bounced-back from last week’s loss to Georgia. QB Hendon Hooker threw three touchdowns and took a seat when the game got out of hand.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are 6-4 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-6 road loss to Florida. QB Spencer Rattler has been a below-average quarterback for South Carolina. He came into college as a blue chip prospect, but he’s been pretty awful considering his fanfare. South Carolina and Vanderbilt are the two worst teams in the SEC.
I have a feeling that Hooker could be sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter again. I don’t think this game will be close, so I’m taking Tennessee to cover on the road.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-7.5) – My pick is Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 7-3 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-14 home win over Iowa State. It was a nice outcome considering they suffered lopsided defeats in their two previous games. Their defense stepped up and only allowed 155 total yards.
The Oklahoma Sooners are 5-5 outright and 3-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 road loss to West Virginia. I feel like the bettors aren’t realizing that this year’s Sooners team is nowhere close to last year’s squad. Oklahoma is 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games.
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma rivalry are usually tight. Both of these teams are struggling to some extent. I don’t see a huge advantage for either team, so I’m taking the points.
USC at UCLA (+1.5) – My pick is USC Trojans
The USC Trojans are 9-1 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 55-17 home win over Colorado. It was their first double-digit win since early October, so it was a big improvement for USC against a bad Colorado squad. USC is among the best teams in the Pac 12, but there are a few teams all packed together in their tier.
The UCLA Bruins are 8-2 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-28 home loss to Arizona. It was a big upset as UCLA was a 20-point favorite heading into the game. They may have been caught sleeping and fell in a trap game.
I like both of these teams, but the Pac 12 has been really inconsistent this year. Top teams fall to each other every week. I think USC might be the better team, but it’s by a small margin. This is USC head coach Lincoln Riley’s first UCLA rivalry game. I think the Trojans step up and covers this week.
Syracuse at Wake Forest (-10) – My pick is Syracuse Orange
The Syracuse Orange are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-3 blowout loss at home to Florida State. The Seminoles got out to a big halftime lead and Syracuse barely got their shoes tied. QB Garrett Shrader only completed six passes for 65 yards in the loss.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 6-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 36-34 home loss to North Carolina. QB Sam Hartman threw four touchdowns and only one interception in the loss. He has struggled with interceptions in recent weeks, so even though they lost, it was a big improvement for Hartman.
Syracuse’s pass defense is top-ten in the country and could force Harman into some bad passes. Wake Forest may get the outright win, but I don’t think they will cover, so I’m taking the points.
Texas-San Antonio at Rice (+12.5) – My pick is UTSA Roadrunners
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The UTSA Roadrunners are 8-2 outright and 5-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 51-7 home win over Louisiana Tech. They got out to a 34-7 lead at halftime and coasted to the big win. They rushed for 258 yards and their defense only allowed 259 total yards. It was a statement win for the Roadrunners.
The Rice Owls are 5-5 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-10 road loss to Western Kentucky. Rice controlled the clock in the game, but they couldn’t do anything with that time. Actually, Western Kentucky was able to score so darn fast, so the time of possession battle was a non-factor.
Rice has one of the worst defenses in the country. They allow 34.4 points per game and Texas-San Antonio should be able to score at will. It doesn’t help Rice that their quarterbacks are interception machines. I’m taking UTSA to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
UConn at Army (-10.5) – My pick is UConn
Virginia Tech at Liberty (-10) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Florida at Vanderbilt (+14) – My pick is
Indiana at Michigan State (-10.5) – My pick is Indiana
Duke at Northwestern (-7.5) – My pick is Duke
Northwestern at Purdue (-18.5) – My pick is Northwestern
Kansas State at West Virginia (+7.5) – My pick is Kansas State
Houston at East Carolina (-5.5) – My pick is East Carolina
Boston College at Notre Dame (-20.5) – My pick is Notre Dame
NC State at Louisville (-3.5) – My pick is Louisville
BONUS PICKS!
UMass at Texas A&M (-34) – My pick is UMass
South Alabama at Southern Miss (+7.5) – My pick is South Alabama
San Jose State at Utah State (+1) – My pick is San Jose State
Colorado State at Air Force (-21.5) – My pick is Air Force
Marshall at Georgia Southern (+4.5) – My pick is Marshall
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 149-122-4
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.