Last week, I went 13-12 against the spread during Week 9 of the college football season.
The biggest game of the week could be the most important game of the entire season. Tennessee travels to Georgia this week and the winner will be in the driver’s seat for the SEC East spot in the conference championship game.
Can Oklahoma State rebound after getting shutout by Kansas State last weekend?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 10 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (November 5th, 2022).
Florida at Texas A&M (-3.5) – My pick is Florida Gators
The Florida Gators are 4-4 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 42-20 loss to Georgia. Thanks to a strong third quarter, they inched a cover by 1.5 points. QB Anthony Richardson is always going to struggle when faced with a double-digit deficit. He’s isn’t accurate when needing to throw deeper down the field.
The Texas A&M Aggies are 3-5 outright and 3-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-28 home loss over Ole Miss. The Aggies have outright lost four in-a-row and 1-2-1 ATS in those games. They’ve been struggling against the run during their losing streak. Backup QB Conner Weigman played great in last week’s loss, but QB Haynes King should be ready to start this week.
I’ve been down on A&M for awhile. Their season is treading in the wrong direction and recent suspensions for breaking team rules kills seasons. Florida is a little underrated after last week’s loss to Georgia. They are better than A&M and I’m taking the points.
Maryland at Wisconsin (-4.5) – My pick is Maryland Terrapins
The Maryland Terrapins are 6-2 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous week, they beat Northwestern 31-24. Maryland backup QB Billy Edwards Jr. filled in and did better than expected. I understand he was facing a bad Northwestern team, but the offense didn’t miss a beat.
The Wisconsin Badgers are 4-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Purdue 35-24. It was the first time Wisconsin has ‘shown up’ against a potential bowl team since their early season loss to Washington State.
Maryland’s offense should get QB Taulia Tagovailoa back for this game. He’s an underrated quarterback that can carry his team to wins. This game should be close, so I’m taking the points.
Kentucky at Missouri (+2) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
The Kentucky Wildcats are 5-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 44-6 road loss to Tennessee. It’s hard to glean a lot from the game since the Vols are such a great team. You almost need to just skip that game when trying to handicap this game. QB Will Levis will never had another game that bad, ever.
The Missouri Tigers are 4-4 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-10 road win over South Carolina. They’ve been pretty good against the spread against SEC teams this season. Their defense is a huge part of that success, since a lot of bettors don’t put as much weight in defense.
I don’t expect this game to be a shoot-out and could be very close. I think Levis will rebound from his worst game ever and remind everyone why he’s an NFL prospect. I think the Wildcats will cover on the road.
Penn State at Indiana (+14) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
The Penn State Nittany Lions are 6-2 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 44-31 home loss to Ohio State. They got the win against the spread thanks to a touchdown in the final two minutes of the game. The game was tight until a crazy fourth quarter that saw a combined 45 total points. If Penn State had taken care of the ball better, they could have gotten the outright win.
The Indiana Hoosiers are 3-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 24-17 at Rutgers. IU started out with a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but their offense was stagnant the rest of the game. A fourth quarter pick-six was the nail in the coffin.
Indiana will have a difficult time dealing with Penn State’s running game. I could see the Nittany Lions running away with this game early. I’m taking Penn State to cover on the road.
Oklahoma State at Kansas (+2.5) – My pick is Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 6-2 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-0 road loss to Kansas State. There are no other words to say about the game than Oklahoma State got their asses beat at every facet of the game. It was a letdown game after they beat Texas the week before. The Cowboys defense is not very good, but their offense is usually robust. I don’t expect their offense to shit the bed like that again this year.
The Kansas Jayhawks are 5-3 outright and 6-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 35-23 at Baylor. Backup QB Jason Bean has been pretty darn good taking over for injured QB Jalon Daniels. He has lost all three games he’s started, but he’s 1-1-1 against the spread. The Jayhawks run defense has been a big weakness over their last two games.
I fully expect that Oklahoma State will bounce-back from last week’s shutout loss. Kansas doesn’t have a good defense and I expect a potential shoot-out. I’m taking Oklahoma State to cover on the road.
Tennessee at Georgia (-8.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
The Tennessee Volunteers are 8-0 outright and 7-1 against the spread. They are coming off an impressive 44-6 home win over Kentucky. It was a dangerous game as Kentucky is a good SEC team and the Vols could have been caught overlooking them towards Georgia. Tennessee’s defense really clamped down on Kentucky and forced turnovers. They had the benefit of laying off the gas in the second-half to coast to the big win.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 8-0 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a neutral site 42-20 win over Florida. Their running game made some big plays and made up for some rough moments from QB Stetson Bennett. Georgia’s running game will always be such a mismatch every week.
Tennessee has been such an overachieving team this year. They’ve been covering games with ease and beating spreads by double-digits. I know Georgia is the ‘sexier’ team, but Tennessee is really damn good. I have to take the points in this game. I have a feeling we could see these two teams meet again later this year.
Alabama at LSU (+13) – My pick is LSU Tigers
The Alabama Crimson Tide are 7-1 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Mississippi State 30-6. The Tide have owned the Bulldogs since Mike Leach took over. It was a nice palate cleanser after their tight loss to Tennessee.
The LSU Tigers are 6-2 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Ole Miss 45-20. The Tigers have outperformed Vegas as they’ve cleared the spread by double-digits in back-to-back games. QB Jayden Daniels has turned into a top-tier college quarterback.
Alabama will most likely win outright, but SEC games are usually close this time of year. I don’t think the Tide should be double-digit favorites in this contest. I’m taking the points on Saturday.
Texas at Kansas State (+2.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns are 5-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off their big week, and in their previous game, they lost at Oklahoma 41-34. QB Quinn Ewers had a rough outing as he only complete 19 of 49 attempts and threw three picks. It was a surprising outcome as the Cowboys defense is among the worst in the Big 12.
The Kansas State Wildcats are 6-2 outright and 5-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-0 home win over Oklahoma State. Backup QB Will Howard had his best game of his career as he threw four touchdowns and no interceptions. They could have QB Adrian Martinez back this week, but it will be hard to bench Howard after that game.
I’m sure the majority of bettors will hit on Kansas State this week, but I have to pivot here. I expect Texas will come with a better gameplan after their bye week. It’s a given that Kansas State will be overrated this week after such a huge shutout win. I was shocked that they weren’t favored this week, but they could be by kick-off. I’m taking the Longhorns to cover on the road.
Clemson at Notre Dame (+3.5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
The Clemson Tigers are 8-0 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Syracuse 27-21 at home. Clemson benched QB D.J. Uiagalelei in the second-half and backup Cade Klubnik led the team to the outright win. Head coach Dabo Swinney said Uiagalelei is still the starter, but you’d expect that he could have a short leash.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 5-3 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-24 road win over Syracuse. Their running game was money as they rushed for 246 yards on 55 attempts. They need their backfield to carry the team as QB Drew Pyne is very limited under center. He can hit short throws, but anything deeper than ten yards is a struggle.
I haven’t been high on Clemson this year, but this is a manageable point spread. They aren’t getting the double-digit point spreads like they were earlier this season. I think they should be able to cover in South Bend.
Georgia State at Southern Miss (-2) – My pick is Southern Miss Golden Eagles
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Georgia State Panthers are 3-5 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-17 home win over Old Dominion. QB Darren Grainger is an under-the-radar athlete. He’s on a bad team in a small conference, so it’s understandable. He would be known by more people if they had a better defense. They allow 32.4 points per game.
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are 5-3 outright and 6-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 39-24 home win over Lafayette. They’ve been able to beat up on bad teams. They don’t have a great offense, but they can move the ball against bad defenses.
Southern Miss should win this game outright, but if Grainger can make a few plays, it could be tight. I’m going with the devil I know better and I’m going with Southern Miss.
QUICK HITS
Duke at Boston College (+9.5) – My pick is Duke
Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-3.5) – My pick is Syracuse
Houston at SMU (-3.5) – My pick is Houston
Air Force at Army (+7) – My pick is Army
North Carolina at Virginia (+7.5) – My pick is North Carolina
Iowa at Purdue (-4.5) – My pick is Purdue
Texas Tech at TCU (-9.5) – My pick is TCU
UNLV at San Diego State (-6) – My pick is San Diego State
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+6.5) – My pick is South Carolina
James Madison at Louisville (-7) – My pick is Louisville
BONUS PICKS!
Marshall at Old Dominion (+2.5) – My pick is Marshall
Florida International at North Texas (-21) – My pick is FIU
UCF at Memphis (+3) – My pick is UCF
Texas-San Antonio at UAB (-1.5) – My pick is UTSA
South Alabama at Georgia Southern (+3.5) – My pick is South Alabama
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 124-98-3
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.