I went 10-5 against the spread last week.
I had a shot at an eleven-win week again, but the Bengals failed to show up against the Browns.
After this week, I feel like we will have a better idea which teams are contenders and which teams just benefited from an easier early season schedule. The Bills/Jets and Titans/Chiefs games are two examples of those contests.
There are three double-digit point spreads this week. Will any of them cover?
Can the Packers turn their season around with a cover in Detroit?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season.
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (+13) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are 7-0 outright and 5-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-13 home win over the Steelers. They were able to cover the -11 betting line against Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett. The combo of QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown were too much for Pittsburgh to handle.
The Texans are 1-5-1 outright and 3-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-10 home loss to the Titans. Houston couldn’t stop the run as the Titans ran for 314 yards. Rookie QB Malik Willis only attempted ten passes in the win. The Texans were able to save a little face with a rushing touchdown in the final minute to close to gap to seven points.
I’ve always been hesitant to bet on double-digit points in the NFL. I only do it when I feel like the underdog team has a glaring weakness to exploit. The Texans have a few weak spots, but the biggest being their weak run defense. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+12.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
This Bills are 6-1 outright and 4-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 home win over the Packers. They came up a half-point short in covering the -10.5 spread. Green Bay is a decent team dealing with some young players in key positions. It would have been difficult to cover a double-digit spread against QB Aaron Rodgers.
The Jets are 5-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 22-17 home loss to the Patriots. They couldn’t do much on the ground without injured RB Breece Hall. Newly-acquired RB James Robinson may be a factor later in the year, but he struggled alongside RB Michael Carter. Wilson doesn’t do well when he has to carry the offense. He threw three interceptions in the loss.
The Jets are a young team with a lot of promise, but the Bills are a team built to win this season. I expect the Bills to replicate the Patriots gameplan of stopping the run and forcing Wilson to pass. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders (+3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 6-1 outright and 3-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-26 home win over the Cardinals. They were able to get their running game going for the first time in a few games. The Vikings have a great passing game, but QB Kirk Cousins is best when he doesn’t have to carry the entire offense.
The Commanders are 4-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 17-16 road win over the Colts. QB Taylor Heinicke have led Washington to wins in back-to-back starts. He has a good arm and is an underrated when he tucks the ball and runs. Their offense was shaky at times, but they were able to finish the game on a 10-0 run to get the win.
The Vikings are a tough team to keep pace with on offense. If Minnesota scores 20+ points, I don’t have much faith in Washington’s offense to catch up on the scoreboard. I know the Vikings have allowed some big games to opposing quarterbacks, so the risk is there, but I’m going to take the Vikings to cover on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 3-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 road loss to the Bills. They had some penalties at the absolute worst times and QB Aaron Rodgers is dealing with growing pains with his young receivers. The silver lining was that the Packers were able to run the ball well for the first time since early-October.
The Lions are 1-6 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-27 home loss to the Dolphins. They had a 21-7 lead over Miami early in the second quarter, but the Dolphins dominated the second-half. The Lions had a couple chances in the fourth quarter to take the lead, but third downs killed them.
It doesn’t matter how bad the Packers are playing, Rodgers usually handles business against the Lions. Green Bay’s secondary should be able to make some plays that leads to points. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (+3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Chargers are 4-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Seahawks 37-23. They are really banged up right now and the bye week came at the right time. There’s a chance that they could get WR Kennan Allen back, but they will still be missing a lot of talent.
The Falcons are 4-4 outright and 6-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-34 overtime home win over the Panthers. They were gifted an overtime opportunity after WR D.J. Moore’s bonehead celebration penalty that led to a missed long extra-point attempt. QB Marcus Mariota came up big in the second-half and overtime.
The Chargers will need a Herculean effort to make up for their injuries. The Falcons have the opposite fortune as there’s a chance that RB Cordarrelle Patterson could come off the IR. Wins like the Falcons had last week can breathe life into a team. I’m going with the points in this one.
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (+4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are 5-3 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-27 road win over the Lions. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked like his old self, pre-concussions, and led the Dolphins to the comeback win. He threw for 382 yards and passed for three scores.
The Bears are 3-5 outright and 3-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 49-29 road loss to the Cowboys. They were facing a 28-7 deficit by the middle of the second quarter. Chicago’s offense isn’t built to come back from a double-digit debt. They closed the lead down to five points in the third quarter, but the Cowboys dominated from the middle of the third quarter until the end.
The Bears have been sellers at the trade deadline. They shipped star LB Roquan Smith the Ravens, and since I’m writing this early Tuesday, they may have made more moves at today’s 4pm trade deadline. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball well against the Roquan-less Bears defense. I’m taking Miami to cover on the road.
Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are 2-5 outright and 3-4 record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-0 road loss to the Saints. It was a poor outing all around for the Raiders. They have lost their way on offense. They only connected with WR Davante Adams just once on five targets. The Saints have an underrated pass defense, but a lot of the Raiders problems were self-inflicted.
The Jaguars are 2-6 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 21-17 loss to the Broncos in London, England. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence had another below-average outing. The team had to lean on RB Travis Etienne Jr. for a large share of their offense. The Jaguars defense played pretty well, but they couldn’t make up for offense’s turnovers.
Neither of these teams are playing well right now. The Jaguars have a disadvantage as they didn’t receive a bye week after playing in England. If their run defense struggles early against Raiders RB Josh Jacobs, it could get out of hand. I have a feeling Jacobs will get a lot of work this week. I’m taking the Raiders to cover in this one.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 3-4-1 outright and 3-5 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 17-16 home loss to the Commanders. Colts handed the starting job to QB Sam Ehlinger and he played better than many expected. The outcome of the game may have been different had WR Michael Pittman Jr. not drop a pass late in the fourth quarter. The Colts fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady after the loss.
The Patriots are 4-4 outright and 4-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-17 road win over the Jets. Their defense forced the Jets into passing the ball and QB Zach Wilson turned the ball over a few times in the loss. Patriots QB Mac Jones played better than he did in the previous game. He bounced back from getting the early hook against the Bears.
New England will most likely replicate last week’s defensive gameplan against the Colts. They will crowd the box to stop RB Jonathan Taylor and force Ehlinger to pass the ball. The Patriots will probably win this game outright, but I like when teams change offensive coordinators mid-season. It usually leads to instant improvement the following week. I’m taking the points.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are 2-6 outright and 3-5 against the spread this season. They are coming of a 37-34 overtime loss to the Falcons. Carolina would have most likely won outright had WR D.J. Moore not take his helmet off to celebrate after he caught a final-second Hail Mary. They got a penalty and their kicker missed the extra-point attempt, leading to overtime. The Panthers did a lot of good things in the loss, so they can’t beat themselves up too much.
The Bengals are 4-4 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 32-13 road loss to the Browns. It was a pretty savage beating as the Browns had a 25-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter. They bailed on the running game and Cleveland choked the clock with their own running game. It was also very noticeable that the Bengals miss the injured WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip).
The Panthers are doing a lot of things well, especially when it comes to their running game. Backup RB D’Onta Foreman did a great job against the Falcons and they could get Chuba Hubbard back for this game. The Bengals may win this game outright, but I think the Panthers should keep it within a score, so I’m taking the points.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks are 5-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 home win over the Giants. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III had a less-than-stellar performance, but his recent numbers were hard to match. The Giants defense is underrated, so it wasn’t a disappointing effort. QB Geno Smith was able to finish the game on a 14-0 run in the fourth quarter.
The Cardinals are 3-5 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-26 road loss to the Vikings. They had trouble stopping Vikings RB Dalvin Cook in the loss. One positive thing is that Arizona’s passing game has improved greatly since the return of DeAndre Hopkins from suspension. Also, the addition of a healthy WR Rondale Moore helps as well.
The Cardinals and Seahawks tend to split the season meetings. Seattle just beat Arizona 19-9 back in Week 6. The Cardinals were without Hopkins, and that could make a big difference. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 3-4 outright and 2-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers. The Niners were able to move the ball down the field on a few unique plays drawn up by head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Rams were out-coached and they didn’t have an answer. Their offense was vanilla compared to what their defense saw last week.
The Buccaneers are 3-5 outright and 2-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-22 home loss to the Ravens. This game was won and lost on the ground. The Ravens ran all over the Bucs and Tampa Bay abandoned their running game early in the same. The Bucs have outright lost five of their last six games and have failed to cover in their last six games.
Neither of these teams are playing their best football. They both struggle running the ball and will need their quarterbacks to carry the offenses. The Rams secondary needs to step up this week. I’m taking the points in this game.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Titans are 5-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-10 road win over the Texans. They ran the ball for 314 yards and rookie QB Malik Willis barely had to use his arm in the win. The Titans defense has been pretty damn good this season. They haven’t allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 3.
The Chiefs are 5-2 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Niners 44-23. It was a close game until the Chiefs pulled away in the second-half. It was their first cover since Week 4.
The Chiefs are a very good team and could easily be undefeated as their two losses were by a total of seven points. That being said, they’ve been a tad overrated this year. They aren’t covering spread easily, especially at home. Even though I don’t currently know which Titans QB will start this game, I’m taking the points.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are 5-3 outright and 3-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-22 road win over the Bucs. They dominated on the ground and their defense stepped up to stymy a fourth quarter comeback attempt. QB Lamar Jackson took care of the ball and was great in the win.
The Saints are 3-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-0 home win over the Raiders. RB Alvin Kamara carried the team on his back with 158 total yards and three touchdowns. QB Andy Dalton was accurate and didn’t turn the ball over.
The trade deadline is today at 4pm and Kamara is a name that has been swirling in the trade rumors for a couple weeks. The Saints don’t have a running back that they can easily plug into his role. They will have a gaping hole in their offense. I also have a hard time having faith in Dalton. He tends to have a complete flop of a game every three starts. I’m taking the Ravens to cover on Monday Night Football.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 66-54-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob