Last week, I went 14-11 against the spread during Week 3 of the college football season.
We continued the long streak of futility by putting a Will Rogers up on last week’s post. When player’s photo is featured on my college football picks, their team either loses or they get injured. I need to apologize in advance to Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman.
How will Florida fare against a great Tennessee team?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 4 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (September 24th, 2022).
Clemson at Wake Forest (+7.5) – My pick is Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Clemson (1-2 ATS) got their offense going in their 48-20 home win over Louisiana Tech. They would have covered the -33.5 point spread, but they allowed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. I’m still not sold on Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei against good teams right now. He looked out-matched last year and he has only slightly improved. Wake Forest (2-1 ATS) survived a close 37-36 game against Liberty. Had Liberty’s late two-point conversion been successful, Wake Forest may have lost. The Demon Deacons allowed too many yards on the ground, which could be a problem against top-50 teams this season. Clemson may outright win this game, but QB Sam Hartman should be able to move the ball in this game. This game should be close, so I’m taking the points.
Florida at Tennessee (-10.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
Florida (1-2 ATS) didn’t rebound well following their home loss to Kentucky. They edged out South Florida 31-28 by scoring a touchdown with five minutes left. Florida QB Anthony Richardson continued his inconsistent play by throwing two picks. The Gators run game was strong and was the reason for the outright win. Tennessee (3-0 ATS) smoked Akron 63-6 in a warm-up game. The Volunteers have been able to beat up on bad MAC teams and took care of business in overtime against Pitt. This will be a test for this squad. I love Vols QB Hendon Hooker this season. He’s improved so much since he played for Virginia Tech. He has yet to throw a pick this season. It’s hard to cover double-digit spreads in the SEC, but I think this year’s Tennessee team can do it over Florida.
Iowa at Rutgers (+7.5) – My pick is Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Iowa (1-2 ATS) finally put up some points last week in their 27-0 win over Nevada. I’m still not sold on QB Spencer Petras as their defense and running game is the reason they 3-0 outright. I could see the Hawkeyes getting smoked by some of the elite teams in the Big Ten this season. If they fall behind by double-digits, they don’t have an offense that can make a comeback. Rutgers (2-1 ATS) won a close game at Temple 16-14. They stymied Temple’s running game as they only gained 49 yards on 30 attempts. This Rutgers squad is much better than some of the cupcake rosters of recent years. I think they will keep this close and will be a low-scoring game, so I’m taking the points.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M (-2) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas (2-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-27 win over Missouri State. It was a much better overall performance than in their previous game against South Carolina. I like Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson early in the season, but he tends to disappear once SEC teams appear on his schedule. Maybe this year could be different with RB Raheim Sanders in the starting role. Texas A&M (1-2 ATS) won a close 17-9 game over Miami (FL). It was a big improvement over their two previous games against smaller schools. A&M switched quarterbacks and Max Johnson, whose upside is intriguing, only completed half of his attempts for 140 yards in the win. I am curious how he will fare against SEC teams. I don’t see him being able to rack up yards against Arkansas, so I’m taking the points.
Wisconsin at Ohio State (-18.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
Wisconsin (2-1 ATS) has been able to blowout small schools, but lost their only game (Washington State) against a Power 5 conference opponent. Their man issue is the erratic play from QB Graham Mertz. He fell apart last season once the Big Ten schedule began. I worry it may happen again. Ohio State (1-2 ATS) hasn’t been a good betting team, but they nearly doubled their -31 point spread against Toledo. There isn’t much to glean from the win as it was lopsided with the starters leaving early in the second-half. Ohio State and Wisconsin have historically played close, but Ohio State have beaten then a combined 97-7 in their last two games in Columbus. I don’t trust Mertz against the Buckeyes, so I’m taking Ohio State to cover.
USC at Oregon State (+5.5) – My pick is USC Trojans
USC (3-0 ATS) is enjoying the Lincoln Riley Era. They are perfect outright and against the spread through three games. They haven’t been covering against gimme opponents as they’ve already beaten two Pac-12 teams. Oklahoma-transfer QB Caleb Williams is playing really well and he has a pair of running backs that should make the Trojans a tough opponent for any team in the country. Oregon State (3-0 ATS) is also perfect outright and against the spread. When the Beavers are able to run the ball, they are a solid Pac-12 team. They should get a good bowl game, but USC is just playing too well for them to hang. I’m taking the Trojans to cover on the road.
Indiana at Cincinnati (-16.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
Indiana (1-2 ATS) are in a rebuild at the moment and will struggle against ranked opponents. IU QB Connor Bazelak had his best game of the year in their overtime win over Western Kentucky. The Missouri-transfer has struggled with interceptions in the past and that could be an troubling issue this year. Cincinnati (1-2 ATS) had a high bar to clear after a great 2021 season. They may have came into the season a little overrated, but they are still a very good team. Cincy QB Ben Bryant is a much better quarterback than he was during his first tenure with the team. He learned a lot at Eastern Michigan in his one year as the starter. He takes care of the ball and makes smart throws. I don’t trust Indiana’s pass defense this week, so I’m taking Cincinnati to cover at home.
Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Baylor (2-1 ATS) will live and die with their running game. I don’t see Baylor giving QB Blake Shapen the green light to air it out. They have a handful of guys in the backfield that can rotate for fresh legs. Their run defense is another huge advantage they have in most games. Iowa State (2-1 ATS) rebound from their ugly game at Iowa with a 43-10 home win against Ohio. Iowa State QB Hunter Dekkers as been great against the two bad teams he’s faced, but his offense just came to a stop in the 10-7 Iowa win. The Cyclones need to win the running game battle to get the win in this game. Whichever team gains the most yards on the ground should win this one. I think Baylor can move to ball better, so I’m taking the points.
Duke at Kansas (-7) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks
Duke (2-1 ATS) has purposely scheduled some easy opponents early this season. They aren’t a very good team as they are rebuilding from the David Cutcliffe Era. They will lean heavily on the running game this season and should get blown-out against the top teams in the ACC. Kansas (3-0 ATS) has been one of the surprise teams this year. They have wins over West Virginia and Houston in back-to-back weeks. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is the best quarterback the Jayhawks have had in well over a decade. He’s a dual threat quarterback and should rack up a lot of stats against bad teams…like Duke. I’m taking Kansas to cover at home.
Ball State at Georgia Southern (-9.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game. Ball State (1-2 ATS) struggled in their opener as they were squashed 59-10 by Tennessee. I think they learned something in the loss as their defense hasn’t been as bad as expected. They suffered a seven-point loss to Western Michigan and took care of business 31-0 over FCS opponent Murray State. I think they should be able to hang with most MAC-level talent. Georgia Southern (2-1 ATS) has played a tough schedule so far with games against Nebraska and UAB. They actually upset Nebraska 45-42, which cost Scott Frost his head coaching job. I think Ball State should be able to corral Georgia Southern’s running game, at least enough to keep this game within the spread, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Navy at East Carolina (-17) – My pick is Navy
Utah at Arizona State (+14.5) – My pick is Utah
Western Michigan at San Jose State (-7) – My pick is Western Michigan
Virginia at Syracuse (-9.5) – My pick is Syracuse
Maryland at Michigan (-17) – My pick is Maryland
Kent State at Georgia (-44.5) – My pick is Georgia
TCU at SMU (+2.5) – My pick is TCU
Buffalo at Eastern Michigan (-6.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Notre Dame at North Carolina (-2.5) – My pick is Notre Dame
Minnesota at Michigan State (+3) – My pick is Minnesota
BONUS PICKS!
Toledo at San Diego State (+3) – My pick is San Diego State
Georgia Tech at UCF (-20.5) – My pick is UCF
Arizona at California (-3) – My pick is California
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama (-13.5) – My pick is Louisiana Tech
Boston College at Florida State (-17.5) – My pick is Boston College
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 42-31-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.