College Football season is here, guys!
This year feels a little more like college football is officially back from the ‘Pandemic Era.’ I could be speaking a little early, but we aren’t inundated with player news surrounding testing results. It feels nice and I can’t wait to watch so many of these games.
We once again saw a ton of quarterbacks change teams thanks to the transfer portal. You may want to research who will be quarterbacking your team this season, because it could have changed. Quarterbacks like JT Daniels (West Virginia) and Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) could be game-changing additions.
Will Ohio State cover against Notre Dame?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 1 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (September 3rd, 2022).
Ball State at Tennessee (-35) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee finished last season with a 7-6 (5-8 ATS) record. Last season, they found a star in transfer QB Hendon Hooker and the Vols offense found their groove in the second-half of the season. Head coach Josh Heupel impressed in his first season in Knoxville and I expect a few more wins in 2022. Ball State went 6-6 (4-8 ATS) last season. They started the year looking like a potential MAC contender, but struggled down the stretch. They find themselves trying to replace longtime QB Drew Plitt, but the Cardinals do return RB Carson Steele and WRs Yo’Heinz Tyler and Jayshon Jackson. They need their offense to carry the load as they could struggle against the pass, as they have an inexperienced group of talent in the secondary. I look for the Volunteers to exploit that and Hooker will start the year with a big game. I look for Tennessee to be a real player in the SEC this season. I’m taking them to win against this large point spread.
Penn State at Purdue (+3.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Last season, Penn State finished with a 7-6 (7-6 ATS) record last season. They started the season playing really well, but never really rebounded after close, midseason losses to Iowa and Illinois. Quarterback Sean Clifford returns and the Nittany Lions have an aggressive group on defense. Purdue finished last season with a 9-4 (8-5 ATS) and finally found their quarterback with QB Aiden O’Connell after flirting with QB Jack Plummer for a couple seasons. They have an easier schedule this season and I could see them racking up more wins this year. They lost a few key players on an underrated defensive squad, so that could be an issue at some point. Penn State could force some turnovers on defense, but O’Connell was so damn good last late season. He doesn’t have the same sure-handed receivers on the team, but I think he could push the ball down the field. Will Purdue win this game outright? Probably not, but they should keep it within the spread, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Ohio State (-17.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Last season, Notre Dame finished the season with a 11-2 (9-4 ATS) record. They were very good betting team, which is rare for a big public team like the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame named Tyler Buchner as their starting quarterback, which doesn’t come as much of a surprise. He had some opportunities last season, as he was more mobile than then-QB Jack Coan. I can’t say I was overly impressed with his arm, but did run the offense similar to former QB Ian Book. I also can’t forget to mention that the Irish promoted Marcus Freeman to head coach after Brian Kelly left for the LSU job. Ohio State went 11-2 (6-6-1) ATS last season. Superstar QB C.J. Stroud returns, but he lost a couple of his favorite targets to the NFL. The Buckeyes are deep at receiver, so there should be much of a drop-off. They gave up a little too many points late in the season and they failed to cover double-digit spreads against Penn State and Nebraska. The Buckeyes will most likely win this game, but I think the Irish will keep it within seventeen points.
Florida State vs LSU (-3) – My pick is LSU Tigers
This is a neutral site game being played at Caesers Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Florida State is coming off a 47-7 home win over Duquesne. FSU QB Jordan Travis relied on his running game to get out to a 26-0 by halftime and he was pulled late in the game to give his backups some reps. The Seminoles failed to cover the lofty 42-point spread because they laid off the gas in the fourth quarter. Last season, LSU finished with a 6-7 (5-7-1) against the spread. They hired former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly to right the ship in Baton Rouge. They saw many in their quarterback room transfer away and they have a three-man race for the job. Kelly said that he has chosen the starter, but is keeping it secret until gameday. Most assume Arizona State-transfer Jayden Daniels is the frontrunner. LSU may not be a title contender right now, but Kelly is a strong recruiter and landed some key guys in the transfer portal. They are a better team and should cover in nearby New Orleans.
Clemson at Georgia Tech (+21.5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
This is a neutral site game being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Last season, Clemson finished with a 10-3 (5-8 ATS), but struggled moving the ball against good teams. They luckily faced some weak teams in November and their record was much more respectable. QB DJ Uiagalelei just didn’t show the same passing skills he put on display in relief of former QB Trevor Lawrence in 2020. He only completed 54.7% of his passes and finished with only 13 total touchdowns and added nine interceptions. He will need to get off to a great start to keep his job as Clemson has championship hopes this year. Georgia Tech is coming off a 3-9 (4-8 ATS) record a year ago. They don’t have many starters back this year and head coach Geoff Collins could be on the hot seat very soon. I knew it would take him a few seasons to get the kind of players to fit a traditional offensive scheme, but we are now at a point where he should be winning games. I’m not a huge fan of Clemson this season as they are often overrated against the spread, but I really dislike Georgia Tech right now. I’m taking Clemson to cover, but it’s more about how bad I expect Georgia Tech will be this year.
Boise State at Oregon State (-2.5) – My pick is Boise State Broncos
Last season, Boise State had a record of 7-5 (7-5 ATS). They will be in a battle this season as the Mountain West should be a three-team race. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier returns, but he isn’t as surrounded with talent this year. They will need some life out of their offensive line if they hope to keep up with Utah State and Air Force in their conference. Oregon State is coming off a 7-6 (7-6 ATS) last year. OSU has a lot of talent back this year, but their defense needed a little more attention in recruiting and the transfer portal. The Beavers should be able to run the ball behind their solid offensive line, but they will give up a lot of points. This could be a very close, high-scoring game. I’m taking the points in this contest.
West Virginia at Pitt (-7.5) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers are coming off a 6-7 (6-7 ATS) last season. WVU head coach Neal Brown needs to see more success this season or his job could be in jeopardy. His offense should be better with USC/Georgia-transfer QB JT Daniels joining the team. He will have a familiar face calling his plays as Graham Harrell was hired as the team’s offensive coordinator. He called the plays at USC when Daniels was there. West Virginia’s biggest issue this season could be defense as they only return three starters from a year ago. Last season, Pittsburgh finished with a 11-3 (10-4 ATS) record. They lost QB Kenny Pickett to the NFL and replaced him with USC-transfer QB Keon Slovis. Pitt would have an easier time with the transition had WR Jordan Addison didn’t transfer out of town. I expect the same pass-friendly offense from the Panthers and Slovis did shine in a few games when he was given the green light to throw 40+ times in a game. West Virginia should have a pretty good scouting report on Slovis as Harrell was at USC with him. The Mountaineers will be prepared for him, but I do worry about their personnel on defense. I think WVU’s defense shows up enough to keep this within a touchdown, so I’m taking the points.
Virginia Tech at Old Dominion (+7.5) – My pick is Old Dominion Monarchs
Last season, Virginia Tech had a record of 6-7 (5-8 ATS). The Hokies hired new head coach Brent Pry this offseason. He is the former defensive coordinator at Penn State, but he doesn’t have the kind of personnel to have much success on defense this season. His offense could be a bit rough as well, but he did name Marshall-transfer QB Grant Wells as his starting quarterback. He had success with Marshall, but he will face tougher competition this season. Old Dominion is coming off a 6-7 (9-4 ATS) season. They started the last year only winning one of their first seven games, but finished off their regular season schedule with five-straight wins to earn a bowl game berth. ODU named QB Hayden Wolff as the starting quarterback once again. They had an open battle for the job and Wolff was named the starter for Week 1. I’m going with a possible upset here. Old Dominion was better than their record last year and I’m not sold on the overall talent of Virginia Tech. ODU may not win this game outright, but they will keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
Illinois at Indiana (-3) – My pick is Illinois Fighting Illini
Last season, the Fighting Illini were 5-7 (7-4-1 ATS) on the year. Illinois head coach Bret Bielema’s overall record wasn’t great in his first season in Champaign, but he did have big wins over Penn State and Minnesota. He was able to nab Syracuse-transfer QB Tommy DeVito out of the transfer portal and he hired a strong run-first offensive coordinator from Texas-San Antonio. Bielema is known for recruiting some great offensive line talent, but he has a lot of work to do in that area. Indiana is coming off a 2-10 (2-10 ATS) season. They lost QB Michael Penix Jr. to injury early in the season and the just packed it in by early-October. They were losing by 30 points a game by November. The Hoosiers have a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. Penix transferred to Washington and Missouri-transfer QB Connor Bazelak is the new starting quarterback in Bloomington. Head coach Tom Allen hit the transfer portal hard and he hopes the Hoosiers can turn the team around fast. He can’t afford another 2-10 season or he could be out of town. I don’t think the Hoosiers improved their defense enough and it could be another long season. I’m taking the points in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me if Illinois wins this game outright.
Rutgers at Boston College (-7) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
Rutgers is coming off a 5-8 (6-7 ATS) in 2021. Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano has improved this team a lot in a short amount of time. They were almost a guaranteed 30-point loss in Big Ten play before Schiano returned to the program. The Scarlet Knights have yet to name a starting quarterback, but it appears that freshman Gavin Wimsatt is the front-runner for the job. Schiano lost a lot of talent on defense to graduation, but he still has a couple of studs in the secondary that should help a lot. Last season, Boston College had a record of 6-6 (6-6 ATS). They lost QB Phil Jurkovec early in the season. He returned late in the year, but he was a shell of himself. He comes into this season fully healthy, but BC has some offensive line issues, which is a bit concerning for the senior quarterback. I think Boston College will focus on the run in this game and RB Pat Garwo III should have a solid outing. I’m taking Boston College to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
North Carolina at Appalachian State (+1.5) – My pick is App State
NC State at East Carolina (+11.5) – My pick is NC State
Houston at UTSA (+4) – My pick is Houston
Oregon at Georgia (-16.5) – My pick is Georgia
Troy at Ole Miss (-21.5) – My pick is Ole Miss
Florida Atlantic at Ohio (+4) – My pick is FAU
Rice at USC (-32.5) – My pick is USC
Utah at Florida (+2.5) – My pick is Florida
Memphis at Mississippi State (-15) – My pick is Mississippi State
Louisville at Syracuse (+4) – My pick is Louisville
BONUS PICKS!
Miami (OH) at Kentucky (-16) – My pick is Kentucky
Army at Coastal Carolina (-2.5) – My pick is Army
Liberty at Southern Miss (+3.5) – My pick is Liberty
Western Kentucky at Hawaii (+16.5) – My pick is Western Kentucky
TCU at Colorado (+13.5) – My pick is TCU
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 0-0-0
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.