I went 4-4 against the spread last week (and over/under picks).
Last week’s slate of playoff games will go down as one of the best playoff weekends in recent memory. All four games were competitive and each game got better. The finale of Bills/Chiefs was just epic. I really can’t put into words how damn great that game was, you just need to go out of your way to watch the fourth quarter.
The Bengals have a lot of swagger coming into this game. They are clearly playing with house money as no one expected them to be in this spot. You could say the same about the Niners. Will either of the underdogs win outright and earn a spot in the Super Bowl?
We pick both NFL Conference Championship games against the spread and over/under point totals.
Since there are only two games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) – over/under (54.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals and UNDER
The Bengals are 12-7 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 19-16 road win over the Titans. It was clear that RB Derrick Henry wasn’t ready to come back yet. He only rushed for 62 yards on 20 carries and Tannehill was forced to make some bad throws. Cincy wasn’t dominant on either side of the ball, but they made some smart plays in the fourth quarter to seal the win. The Chiefs are 14-5 outright and 10-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 42-36 overtime win over the Bills. It was an insane game and a must-watch. People will be talking about that one for years. We all know the Chiefs offense is great, but their defense really shit the bed in the second-half of that game. Had the Bills won the coin toss, Buffalo would be playing this week. The Bengals beat the Chiefs 34-31 in early January and rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase torched the Chiefs secondary. I’m not saying that the Bengals will win this game outright, but they should keep it within a touchdown. I’m taking the points and the over/under total of 54.5 is a few points too high, so I’ll go with the UNDER.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) – over/under (46) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams and UNDER
The Niners are 12-7 outright and 11-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-10 road win over the Packers. San Francisco trailed the entire game until they kicked a field goal to take the lead with time expired. The turning point was when the Niners blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown. The Rams are 14-5 outright and 10-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-27 road win over the Buccaneers. They had a sizeable lead at the half, but they made some mistakes in the fourth quarter that nearly cost them the game. They were able to get a lot of pressure on Bucs QB Tom Brady and I expect them to get a lot of pressure this week. The Niners swept the season series against the Rams this year, but I just like the way the Rams are playing right now. It took a couple games for Rams LB Von Miller to find his role, but he’s been fantastic over his last six games. I’m taking the Rams to cover and the UNDER in this game.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 152-128-6
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob