I went 5-9-2 against the spread last week.
Due to kidney stone issues, I had to forego my weekly fantasy football sit/start content. If you have any specific sit/start questions, feel free to send an email to BobbyMcRib@gmail.com.
I usually write around 3,000 words in my weekly NFL betting picks column, but this week will be abbreviated due to my overall discomfort.
The final week of the NFL season is always a gamble as teams play coy about the playing status of their key players.
Which team will win home-field advantage in the AFC, Titans or Chiefs?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+10) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs need to win and the Titans to lose to secure home-field advantage and a bye. The Broncos are a bad team with QB Drew Lock under center. The Chiefs will cover on Saturday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and are playing for positioning. The Eagles still have clinched a playoff berth and could slightly improve their seeding with a win. I like how the Eagles have played down the stretch and they should be able to run on the Cowboys. I’m taking the points.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+15.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts always seem to have trouble winning games in Jacksonville, but I think they will snap their losing streak in Duval County this week. They need to win in hopes to avoid playing the Chiefs or Titans next week. They have a better shot if they win and secure a playoff spot against the Bengals or Bills. I expect a lot of Colts RB Jonathan Taylor in this game and the Colts to cover.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Bengals really have nothing to win here and will most likely rest all of their key players. The Browns have a strong running game and should cover this one at home.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Vikings and Bears are both eliminated from playoff contention and are just playing for pride. It would be a real ‘Bears Move’ to win this game and ruin their draft position and I think it could happen. I’m taking the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens are eliminated from playoff contention, but the Steelers still have an outside shot at a playoff spot. They need a lot of help and the Ravens pass defense is garbage. I could see the Steelers sending Big Ben out with a bang with a pass-happy offensive attack. I’m taking the points in this game.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+10) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
All the Titans need to do is win and they will get home-field advantage and a bye. The Texans got the upset win early this season, but the Titans should take care of business on Sunday. Houston’s run defense is piss-poor and Titans RB D’Onta Foreman has been pretty darn good in relief.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (+7) – My pick is Washington Football Team
Both of these teams are just playing for pride on Sunday. The Giants have a horrid offense and their defense is the only reason why they have won a single game all year. Washington is a better overall team and should cover on the road.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+2.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers have nothing to win here as they’ve already clinched home-field advantage and a bye in the NFC. I’m taking them here because I fear Lions backup QB Tim Boyle could get the start. The Packers should cover on the road.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+6.5) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Patriots and Bills are playing for the AFC East title. The Bills own the tiebreakers and both teams are playing at the same time. New England will need to play their starters and have been covering games with consistency.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-16.5) – My pick is New York Jets
The Bills will win the AFC East with a win or a Patriots loss. If they get out to a lead against the Jets, I could see them taking their foot off the gas pedal in the second-half. The Jets could get a garbage-time score to win against the spread.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals and Rams are playing for the NFC West title. If the Cardinals win and the Rams lose, Arizona wins the division. They are playing at the same time, so they will be looking at the scoreboard on Sunday. I’m taking Arizona to cover at home.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+4) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
There is a shot that the Saints could sneak into the playoffs. They need a win and the Niners to lose. The Falcons could be without TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) and the Saints defense have been playing great the last month. I’m taking New Orleans to cover on the road.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angles Rams (-4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Rams need to win to secure the #2 seed in the NFC and the Niners need to win (or a Saints loss) to secure a Wild Card spot. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable (thumb) and it looks like rookie QB Trey Lance will most likely get the start. The Rams defense will be too difficult to crack, so I’m taking L.A. to cover.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have clinched the NFC South and are just playing for seeding. Tampa Bay could rest their starters at some point in the game. The Panthers offense is in rough shape and could have trouble scoring points against the Bucs second unit.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers and Raiders are both fighting for the last Wild Card spot in the AFC. Theoretically, if the Colts lose and the Chargers/Raiders game ends in a tie, the Colts would be out of the playoffs. The Raiders looks like they were going to be eliminated from playoff contention back in early-December, but they’ve won their last three games. They’ve won those games by a total of nine points, so they’ve all been close. It could be another close one if the Raiders can run on the Chargers. I’m banking on Chargers QB Justin Herbert connecting on a few balls in this game. I’m taking the Chargers to cover and secure a Wild Card spot.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 135-109-6
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob