I went 10-6 against the spread last week. 

COVID-19 is running rampant in NFL locker rooms right now. I had to delay my betting picks by a day last week just due to the flood of names coming in. I had to delay it again this week due to games being pushed back to Tuesday night.

I fully expect some more game-changing names to land in COVID protocols by this weekend. I fear it will be like this until the Super Bowl.

Will the Buccaneers bounce-back from a shut-out loss?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season.

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 8-6 outright and 7-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-13 home win over the Falcons. They are on a nice roll winning five of their last six games outright (5-1 ATS). Their rotating group of repeatedly-injured running backs is doing the job. The Titans are 9-5 outright and 8-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-13 road loss to the Steelers. They are still struggling on offense and they are running roughly the same number of running plays with their current group of running backs. If a team goes up by double-digits the Titans aren’t going to score in a hurry. The Niners are the better team right now and the Titans will continue their fall out of the playoff picture.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Browns are 7-7 outright and 6-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. They were decimated by a COVID outbreak that took out a number of players and forced third-string QB Nick Mullens to start his first game for the team. He wasn’t awful and he led a late scoring drive, but the Raiders were able to hit a field goal as time expired to win the game. The Packers are 11-3 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a close 31-30 road win over the Ravens. Baltimore scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter and tried to go ahead with a two-point try, but failed. The Packers defense have allowed more than 28 points in each of their last four games, which is a bit troubling. The Browns are expected to have head coach Kevin Stefanski and QB Baker Mayfield back for this game, but there are a few key players on defense that will most likely miss another game (i.e. DE Jadeveon Clowney). The Packers offense has been very good of late and I don’t see the Browns being able to keep up on the scoreboard, so I’m taking Green Bay to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are 8-6 outright and 9-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 home win over the Patriots. They were carried by RB Jonathan Taylor as he ran for 170 yards on 29 attempts. Colts QB Carson Wentz only had to throw the ball twelve times and only had 57 yards through the air. The Cardinals are 10-4 outright and 9-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off an unexpected 30-12 road loss to the Lions. Detroit has been better than their record for most of the season, but they really played well against Arizona. The Cardinals allowed Lions RB Craig Reynolds to rush for 112 yards in the loss. If they can’t stop Reynolds, they may be in trouble against arguably the best running back in the league right now. I’m taking the points in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-2.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 2-12 outright and 4-10 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-16 home loss to the Texans. It was their first game without fired head coach Urban Meyer. They used RB James Robinson more, but there is no magic pill to fix QB Trevor Lawrence. He has been inaccurate and his completion percentage hovers around 50% in losses. The Jets are 3-11 outright and 4-10 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-24 road loss to the Dolphins. They got out to an early lead, but their offense just fell flat in the second-half. The Jets defense also made Dolphins RB Duke Johnson look like he should be starting in this league. I think the Jets will have a hard time stopping Jaguars RB James Robinson on Sunday. This could be an overall ugly game and I won’t be watching this one live. I’m taking the points in this one.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-10) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants are 4-10 outright and 6-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 21-6 home loss to the Cowboys. Giants backup QB Mike Glennon was awful and threw three interceptions and third-string QB Jake Fromm completed just six of his twelve attempts. The offense barely cracked 300 total offensive yards in the loss. The Eagles are 7-7 outright and 7-6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-17 home win over Washington. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts played great in his return from injury scoring three touchdowns in the win. The Giants have relied on their defense to keep them alive against the spread this season, but they have failed to cover in three-straight games. The Eagles offense looked great last week and I expect them to fare well against the Giants. I’m taking Philly to cover at home.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 10-4 outright and 7-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-10 home win against the Seahawks. They had one of the worst COVID outbreaks in the league and they delayed the game until Tuesday, which helped them get a few guys back for the game. The Rams pounded the ball with RB Sony Michel and spammed the ball through the air to WR Cooper Kupp. The Vikings are 7-7 outright and 8-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-9 road win against the Bears. The Vikings had control of the game for most of the contest, but they still had to stop a late-charge from the Bears. Chicago’s defense had better-than-expected performance, as they limited Vikings WR Justin Jefferson to just four receptions for 47 yards. I expect the Rams will get a few more players off the COVID list and should perform well on offense against the below-average Vikings defense…and Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is on the COVID list. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Lions are 2-11-1 outright and 9-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-12 home in over the Cardinals. Lions QB Jared Goff threw three touchdowns and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had one of his better games of the season. The Lions suffered a blow the following day when Goff landed on the COVID list, so it looks like backup QB Tim Boyle will get the start against Atlanta. The Falcons are 6-8 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-13 road loss to the Niners. Falcons WR Russell Gage had a big game, but the rest of the offense wasn’t up to the challenge. Their running game was abysmal against the Niners. If Goff was healthy, the Lions may have been a pick’em in this game. There is a steep drop-off from the average Goff to his backup Boyle. He was awful in his lone start of the year and I don’t see him putting many points on the board. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Bills are 8-6 outright and 7-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-14 home win over the Panthers. Their defense made Panthers QB Cam Newton look like he didn’t belong in the league for most of the game. Their defense started the year off great, but injuries have made them look below average the last few games. The Patriots are 9-5 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-17 road loss to the Colts. New England has had trouble stopping good running backs all season and it was an expected result. The Patriots won’t have to worry about a running game in this one as the Bills backfield has been bit players in the offense. These two teams faced each other on December 6th, but the wind was so crazy that Patriots QB Mac Jones only attempted a few passes on the way to a win. I think the Patriots will try once again to focus on the run and will have success with that strategy. I’m taking the Patriots to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+10.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are 10-4 outright and 7-7 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 9-0 shutout loss to the Saints. Both teams just struggled on offense, but QB Tom Brady’s late fumble basically sealed the loss. Tampa Bay was also dealt some blows due to injuries with WR Mike Evans (hamstring), RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) and WR Chris Godwin (ACL) all suffered injuries that will keep them out for awhile. The Panthers are 5-9 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-14 road loss to the Bills. Panthers QB Cam Newton struggled again and didn’t even complete 50% of his passes. Even though the Bucs lost some key players on offense, they will get WR Antonio Brown back from suspension. There’s no way Tom Brady gets embarrassed in back-to-back games. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens are 8-6 outright and 7-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-30 home loss to the Packers. Backup QB Tyler Huntley spammed the ball to TE Mark Andrews all game and the Packers struggled to stop him. Baltimore tried for a two-point conversion that would have put them up late, but Huntley’s pass was tipped and missed Andrews. Huntley has been solid in place of injured QB Lamar Jackson (ankle). The Bengals are 8-6 outright and 7-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 15-10 road win over the Broncos. It was a hard-fought win against an underrated Broncos defense. Cincinnati had trouble on third down, but their defense stepped up with some big plays. It’s currently unknown if the Ravens will decide to push for Lamar Jackson to play at less-than 100%. This is a huge game for both teams as they hope to win the AFC North. The Ravens secondary is banged-up and have been among the league’s worst in pass defense. I expect the Bengals will exploit that and will cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+9.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 8-6 outright and 7-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-28 overtime loss to the Chiefs. The back-and-forth action in the fourth quarter was a real treat to watch. Chargers QB Justin Herbert didn’t have a great game, but his backfield helped bail him out a few times. After the game, a handful of Chargers landed on the NFL COVID list and key players DE Joey Bosa, C Corey Linsley and others are expected to miss the upcoming game. The Texans are 3-11 outright and 6-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-16 road win over the Jaguars. Texans WR Brandin Cooks continues to be the one of the best players on a bad team this season as he had two touchdown receptions in the win (Cooks is now on the COVID list). The Texans also saw a handful of defensive lineman land on the COVID list after their game. This one is a tough one to handicap, but the Texans struggle against solid running teams. If the Chargers backfield can avoid landing on the outbreak list, they should cover this one on the road.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are 4-10 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 17-9 home loss to the Vikings. Chicago’s offense was stagnant early, but Bears rookie QB Justin Fields had a solid second-half, but it wasn’t enough. The Bears defense did play better than expected as they held a lot of the Vikings offensive studs to below average games. The Seahawks are 5-9 outright and 7-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-10 road loss to the Rams. It was a tight game until the fourth quarter, but there were a few non-calls late that could have shifted the outcome. The Seahawks don’t have a strong enough offense to cover near-touchdown point spreads with any consistency. This one could be close late and I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 7-6-1 outright and 6-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-13 home win over the Titans. Tennessee’s offense is just broken without RB Derrick Henry, so the Steelers were able to get the outright win. They didn’t play well on offense, but they extended drives into field goal range. The Chiefs are 10-4 outright and 7-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-28 overtime win over the Chargers. They got some bad news in the following days as TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill, and eight other players landed on the COVID list. The Chiefs have some talented players on offense, but taking Kelce and Hill away really kneecaps them. I think that could be enough for the Steelers to keep it close, so I’m taking the points.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Broncos are 7-7 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 15-10 home loss against the Bengals. Broncos starting QB Teddy Bridgewater was hit in the back as he was diving and hit his head on the ground, knocking him out. He spent the night in the hospital and is currently in concussion protocol, so it could be a week or two until he plays again. Broncos backup QB Drew Lock threw a touchdown and also coughed up a costly fumble when he was deep in the red zone. The Raiders are 7-7 outright and 5-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-14 road win over the shorthanded Browns. It wasn’t a pretty game for either team. I expect another ugly game this week as this one could be a low-scoring, tight game. This is a huge game as both teams are battling for a Wild Card spot. If the Raiders can get TE Darren Waller (knee) back from injury, it could swing it in their favor. I expect that he will suit up and I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-10) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

Washington is 6-8 outright and 5-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 road loss against the Eagles. The Footballers couldn’t stop Eagles QB Jalen Hurts or Philly’s backfield. Washington starting QB Taylor Heinicke was placed on the COVID list late last week and third-string QB Garrett Gilbert had to start against Philly. It’s currently unknown if Heinicke will be able to clear protocol to play against Dallas. The Cowboys are 10-4 outright and 11-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 21-6 road win over the Giants. The Cowboys were able to clamp up on defense and didn’t have to break much of a sweat on offense to get the win. Washington and Dallas met just two weeks ago and the Cowboys won 27-20. If Heinicke isn’t cleared, I’d have to take the Cowboys to cover. 

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 7-7 outright and 7-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-24 home win over the Jets. Miami rushed for 183 yards in the win and RB Duke Johnson ran for two scores. The Dolphins are on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS). The Saints are 7-7 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 9-0 road win over the Buccaneers. It was an ugly game to watch and neither offense played great. If Tampa Bay didn’t suffer so many injuries in that game, the outcome would have been different. The Saints have been an awful home team this season (1-4 outright). It also looks like they will need to start rookie QB Ian Book at quarterback after quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both landed on the COVID list. The Dolphins are playing their best football right now and I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 121-93-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob