I went 12-13 against the spread last week.
We’ve made it to Rivalry Week. This is the final week with a full slate of games.
This weekend, Ohio State and Michigan meet for the 117th time.. Both teams are coming off blowout wins and Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud could leapfrog a few Heisman contenders with big performance in a marquee game.
Can Oklahoma State cover against rival Oklahoma on Saturday?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 13 of the 2021-22 NCAA Football season (November 27th, 2021).
Ohio State at Michigan (+8.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is 10-1 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off an impressive 56-7 home win over Michigan State. OSU QB C.J. Stroud owned the Spartans throwing six touchdowns and 432 yards in the win. It was 49-0 at the half, so the Buckeyes laid off the gas in the second-half. Michigan is 10-1 outright and 9-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 59-18 road win over Maryland. The Wolverines had a 24-3 lead at halftime and then stretched out the lead in the third with a kickoff return touchdown and a pick-six. Michigan improved greatly after a disappointing 2020 season. They haven’t beaten Ohio State since 2011 and have lost eight-straight games (4-4 ATS). It’s really hard to bet on Ohio State after last week’s showing. If this spread creeps towards double-digits, I may change my mind, but as the line currently sits, I’m taking Ohio State to cover on the road.
Wake Forest at Boston College (+4.5) – My pick is Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest is 9-2 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-27 road loss to Clemson. It was a surprising loss since Clemson’s offense has been rather rough this season. The Tigers were able to run the ball against Wake Forest. It wasn’t the first time Wake Forest has allowed a big game on the ground as North Carolina, Army and Syracuse all had big games against the Demon Deacons. Boston College is 6-5 outright and against the spread against the spread. They are coming off a 26-23 home loss to Florida State. FSU QB Jordan Travis had a banner day against the Eagles. I expect Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to have a similar performance. I’m taking Wake Forest to cover on the road.
Texas Tech at Baylor (-14) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Texas Tech is 6-5 outright ad 5-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-0 home loss to Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders struggled without QB Tyler Shough (collarbone). Backup QB Donovan Smith struggled against the Cowboys. He only completed nine of 29 attempts for 83 yards. The offense just couldn’t get going without Shough. Baylor is 9-2 outright and 8-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-10 road win over Kansas State. Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon injured his hamstring in the loss and he is currently listed as questionable for this contest. Backup QB Blake Shapen was pretty darn good in relief and should have a solid game if needed. I’m taking Baylor to cover against Shough-less Texas Tech.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State (-1) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi is 9-2 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-17 home win against Vanderbilt. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral didn’t have a huge game against the Commodores. The Rebels were expected to beat Vandy by a lot more. Mississippi State is 7-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 55-10 home win against Tennessee State. The Bulldogs have covered five-straight games heading into this contest. I expect this game to be won through the air. Will Rogers and Corral are both talented and will be playing on Sunday in the coming years. Ole Miss has a rough pass defense and Rogers should have an easier time moving the ball. I’m taking MSU to cover against their rivals.
Penn State at Michigan State (+1) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is 7-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-0 home win over Rutgers. PSU backup QB Christian Veilleux had a big game in relief of starter Sean Clifford. He threw three touchdowns and didn’t turn the ball over. Clifford is now healthy and will start against Michigan State this week. Michigan State is 9-2 outright and 7-2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 56-7 road loss against Ohio State. It was the first time this season that RB Kenneth Walker III looked like a mere mortal and QB Payton Thorne only completed 39% of his passes. It’s really hard to forget a reality check like that. I feel that Penn State is underrated at this point and should be a field goal favorite in this game. I’m taking the Nittany Lions to cover.
Alabama at Auburn (+19.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is 10-1 outright and 6-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 42-35 home win against Arkansas. The game had a trap game feel, but Alabama QB Bryce Young pressed on and had 559 yards and five touchdowns. They needed this win to stay in the CFP race. Auburn is 6-5 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 21-17 road loss to South Carolina. They miss QB Bo Nix, who hasn’t been the most consistent quarterback at the school, but he has pulled out some big performances in his career. I expect Young will have another big game on his way to winning the Heisman…I’m taking Bama to cover on the road.
Indiana at Purdue (-15) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Indiana is 2-9 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 35-14 home loss to Minnesota. The Hoosiers offense is very bad and they get next to nothing from their quarterbacks. I believe they have started four different ones this year. Purdue is 7-4 outright and 6-5 against the spread. Purdue is coming off a 32-14 win over Northwestern at Wrigley Field. Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell had another big outing and is shooting up the rankings in a thin quarterback class in this year’s NFL Draft. The Boilermakers should cover at home.
Kentucky at Louisville (-3) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 8-3 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 56-16 home win over New Mexico State. The Wildcats had a three-game losing streak heading into games against Vandy and NMSU. It’s hard to figure out if they’ve fixed their issues with wins over two bad teams. Louisville is 6-5 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 62-22 road win against Duke. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 527 combined yards in the win. I’m interested to see how Cunningham will perform against Kentucky’s defense. I think he could struggle and turn the ball over a few times. I’m taking the points.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-4) – My pick is Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma is 10-1 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-21 home win against Iowa State. OU QB Caleb Williams struggled with his passing, but the Sooners were able to run the ball against the Cyclones. Oklahoma State is 10-1 outright and 9-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-0 road win against Texas Tech. You can’t take much from that game since Tech struggled without starting QB Tyler Shough. They are on a four-game winning streak and have covered nine-straight games. Oklahoma are a public team and there’s little value in their betting lines. Even though OSU have covered nine-straight games, I still think there is value in this line. I think they will cover against an overrated Oklahoma team.
Ohio at Bowling Green (+6) – My pick is Ohio Bobcats
This is the section where I pick a smaller conference game. Ohio is 3-8 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-23 home loss to Toledo. The Bobcats need to run the ball in hopes of winning a game. They did rush for 192 yards, but their defense gave up 251 yards on the ground. You just can’t win games if the opposing team outperforms you at your best offensive strategy. Bowling Green is 3-8 outright and 7-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-7 road loss to Miami of Ohio. They have been blown-out in back-to-back games. Bowling Green’s run defense is 110th in the country, so Ohio should be able to do well in this game. I’m taking the Bobcats to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Houston at UConn (+32) – My pick is Houston
Wisconsin at Minnesota (+7) – My pick is Wisconsin
Boise State at San Diego State (+2.5) – My pick is SDSU
Iowa at Nebraska (+1.5) – My pick is Iowa
North Carolina at NC State (-6) – My pick is North Carolina
Florida State at Florida (-3) – My pick is Florida State
Notre Dame at Stanford (+19) – My pick is Notre Dame
Texas A&M at LSU (+6.5) – My pick is Texas A&M
Virginia Tech at Virginia (-7) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Hawaii at Wyoming (-10) – My pick is Wyoming
BONUS PICKS!
UTEP at UAB (-13.5) – My pick is UTEP
Army at Liberty (-3.5) – My pick is Army
Maryland at Rutgers (+1.5) – My pick is Maryland
Miami (OH) at Kent State (-1) – My pick is Miami (OH)
Louisiana Tech at Rice (+3.5) – My pick is La Tech
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 155-141-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.