I went 6-8 against the spread last week. 

I’ve had a couple rough weeks after a strong first-half of the season. It was time to pivot and move around some of my personal team rankings.

After a week full of double-digit spreads, we only have two on the docket this week. It is a welcomed change as double-digit NFL spreads can be hard to handicap.

The Cowboys/Chiefs game is the marquee contest this week. Both teams are coming off blowout wins. Can the Chiefs cover at home?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (+7) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots are 6-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a dominant 45-7 home win against a depleted Browns team. They have outright won four-straight games and have covered every one of those wins. The Falcons are 4-5 outright and against the spread this year. The Falcons are coming off a 43-3 loss to the Cowboys. Their offense was so RB Cordarrelle Paterson-dependent that when he went out with an ankle injury, it was over. Patterson is currently listed as questionable for this game. Even if he is limited physically, the Falcons are in trouble. The Patriots have put away bad teams this year and the Falcons are in that category. I’m taking the Patriots to cover on Thursday Night Football.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Packers are 8-2 outright and 9-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off an unimpressive 17-0 win at home to the Seahawks. The first three quarters were atrocious, but the fourth quarter elevated it to just ugly. The Packers defense did its job, but the offense just couldn’t keep drives going all game. The Vikings are 4-5 outright and 5-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-20 road win over the Chargers. It was an all-around solid performance by the Vikings. The defense limited Chargers QB Justin Herbert and the Vikings passing game was great as they relied heavily on wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Packers still don’t have CB Jaire Alexander back and will have issues covering Jefferson. Green Bay’s offense can’t start slow in this one. I’m taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints are 5-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-21 road loss to the Titans. They were without RB Alvin Kamara (knee) and backup QB Trevor Siemian was adequate in the start. If the running game isn’t there for New Orleans, the offense just can’t keep drives going right now. The Eagles are 4-6 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-13 road win against the Broncos. Philly has been able to keep a consistent running game going without RB Miles Sanders. The Eagles have split the carries between RB Jordan Howard, RB Boston Scott and QB Jalen Hurts, with a lot of success. I like their current offensive philosophy and should do well against the Saints. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (+6) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Ravens are 6-3 outright and 3-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a surprising 22-10 road loss to the Dolphins. Baltimore had a chance to win this game, but a late fumble recovery touchdown by the Dolphins really put the Ravens in a difficult spot. Baltimore will need more from their running game if they hope to stay in the playoff race. The Bears are 3-6 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 29-27 to the Steelers. Bears rookie Justin Fields nearly pulled off a comeback in that game, but they left too much time on the clock. Chicago is a different team when RB David Montgomery is healthy. The Bears can keep games close if they can give Fields a little help from Montgomery and his defense will need to step up in this game. I’m taking the points in this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 4-5 outright and 3-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off an impressive 31-10 home win against the Rams on Monday Night Football. They got a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. San Francisco stepped up huge in this game and made the Rams offense look pedestrian. The Jaguars are 2-7 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. The Jaguars are coming off a 23-17 road loss to the Colts. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was not good in that game. He only completed 16 of 35 passes for 162 yards. A couple big gains from his backfield kept this game close in the fourth quarter. Lawrence just doesn’t have the talent on offense to comeback from a double-digit deficit. The Niners played too darn well on Monday for me to bet against them against the Jaguars. Jacksonville will struggle to get on the board in this one, so I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-12.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Lions are 0-8-1 outright and 5-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-16 road tie against the Steelers. They won’t have starting QB Jared Goff (oblique) and are starting QB Tim Boyle. He was a third-stringer in Green Bay for a couple seasons, but has only attempted four NFL passes. I’ve read that he has a big arm, but you wouldn’t know it from his college career. He was horrible at UConn and honestly, wasn’t great after he transferred to Eastern Kentucky (11 touchdowns & 13 interceptions). I can’t imagine he is an improvement over Goff, even though the Lions haven’t received much success at quarterback this season. The Browns are 5-5 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-7 road loss to the Patriots. Browns QB Baker Mayfield suffered a knee injury and left the game. They were also without RB Nick Chubb (COVID list), but both players are expected to play on Sunday. It’s really, really hard to bet on a double-digit favorite who lost 45-7 the previous week. I expect many will put some money on Detroit here, but their injury report is so damn long. Boyle is a huge question mark and I need to bet on all the knowns in this game. The Browns will bounce-back and cover at home.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Footballers are 3-6 outright and 2-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a shocking 29-19 home win against the Buccaneers. It was their first outright win and cover since early-October. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke was accurate completing 26 of 32 passes and RB Antonio Gibson ran in two touchdowns. They did suffer a blow when star DE Chase Young blew out his knee in the win. The Panthers are 5-5 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-10 road win against the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals. Carolina used QB Cam Newton as their red zone quarterback and allowed QB P.J. Walker to carry most of the workload. Newton is taking most of the first-team reps in practice this week, so he will see the field much more in this game. The addition of Newton adds life to the offense and the fact that RB Christian McCaffrey looks near-100%, they will be a tough opponent going forward. I’m taking Carolina to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Colts are 5-5 outright and 6-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-17 home win against the Jaguars. Indy is riding RB Jonathan Taylor to wins right now. They are best when they can put QB Carson Wentz into manageable third downs, and Taylor does that and more. The Bills are 6-3 outright and 5-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-17 road win over the Jets. They bounced back from a surprising loss to the Jaguars the previous week. I think this game will be tight for most of the game, but I just fear Wentz will make a bonehead decision late in this one. I’m a Colts fan and he has given me more than one heart attack this season. He needs to play perfect to keep this one tight and I don’t see him doing that. I’m taking the Bills to cover in this game. 

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Texans are 1-8 outright and 4-5 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Dolphins 17-9. We thought the Texans offense would be better with QB Tyrod Taylor under center, but he threw three interceptions against the Dolphins. They aren’t getting anything from their backfield right now either. The Titans are 8-2 outright and 7-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-21 home win against the Saints. They are struggling to find their identity without injured RB Derrick Henry. It’s time for QB Ryan Tannehill to take a larger role in the offense because their backfield is below average. The Titans still have enough weapons on offense to stretch out this lead and let their defense hold the line. I’m taking the Titans to cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 3-7 outright and 4-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 22-10 home win against the Ravens. Injured QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger) entered the game for struggling QB Jacoby Brissett and secured the win. He is practicing this week and will be the starting quarterback this week. The Jets are 2-7 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off an embarrassing 45-17 home loss to the Bills. Jets backup QB savior Mike White threw four interceptions in the loss. It’s unknown which Jets quarterback will get the start in this game. Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson is nearing a return from injury, but third-string QB Joe Flacco could also start if they decide to bench White. The Dolphins play much better with Brissett on the sideline. Tua had a spark late in that game and the team is much better with him under center. I’m taking Miami to cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders (+1) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 5-4 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, lost to the Browns 31-16. Cincinnati was in dire need of a bye week after their last two outings. The defense just hasn’t been able to stop anyone since early October. The Raiders are 5-4 outright and 4-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-14 home loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders collapsed in the second-half of the game. Honestly, with as much stuff that has happened to them, the Raiders could be another loss away from packing it in for the year. I think the Bengals will bounce-back from a couple rough outings and cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 7-2 outright and 8-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 43-3 home win against the Falcons. Dallas outscored Atlanta 29-0 in a perfect second quarter. The Cowboys just cruised to the win after that. It was the first time the Cowboys have played well without LT Tyron Smith in many years. The Chiefs are 6-4 outright and 3-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-14 road win over the Raiders. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes shut up some haters with his five-touchdown performance. This should be a fun game to watch. There is a lot of offensive potential in this game. The Chiefs secondary could have a hard to defending against the deep ball. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb could play a big role in this one. I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 8-2 outright and 7-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-10 home loss to the Panthers. QB Kyler Murray was unable to play due to a hamstring issue and veteran QB Colt McCoy started his second game of the year. The offense stalled as the running game never really got off the ground to help McCoy. Murray will be a game-time decision if he will be able to play this week. The Seahawks are 3-6 outright ad 5-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off an ugly 17-0 loss to the Packers. Seattle were able to get QB Russell Wilson back from his finger injury, but he may have had his worst game in the NFL. He only completed 50% of his passes for 161 yards and two interceptions. He didn’t get much help from his running backs either. This is a bit of a gamble, but I’m going to roll the dice that Murray will be healthy enough to play on Sunday. Wilson may need a few games to get back into form, so I’m taking the Cardinals to cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 5-3-1 outright and 3-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-16 home tie against the Lions. It was an ugly, ugly game all-around for the Steelers. They were without QB Ben Roethlisberger (COVID) and backup QB Mason Rudolph kept his passes short. He just couldn’t keep drives going and their two lost fumbles were deflating on offense. The Chargers are 5-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-20 home loss to the Vikings. They have now lost three of their last four games. Their run defense has been inconsistent this year, but it fine in this game (although their secondary couldn’t deal with Vikings WR Justin Jefferson). I’d point the finger at QB Justin Herbert for this loss. He only passed for 195 yards and just couldn’t connect with any deep passes. The Chargers also bailed on their running game early. I would like to see RB Austin Ekeler get more touches going forward. The Steelers will get Big Ben back for this game. I expect the Steelers will lean on RB Najee Harris and exploit the Chargers 32nd-ranked run defense. The Chargers are a bit overvalued here and think they should be a 3.5-point favorite, at best. I’m taking the points on Sunday Night Football.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants are 3-6 outright and 5-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Raiders 23-16. The Giants have spent this season just battling to get guys back on the field after injuries. The statuses of some of their top performers on offense are still up in the air. RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), WR Sterling Shpard (quad) and RB Devontae Booker (hip) are all questionable. The Bucs are 6-3 outright and 3-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a surprising 29-19 road loss to Washington. Bucs QB Tom Brady had a bad game and turnovers killed them. It was their second-straight outright and loss against the spread. They were dealing with some injury issues of their own, but TE Rob Gronkowski is the lone notable offensive player on the injury report. The Bucs have been able to take care of business at home this season. They have covered both of the double-digit point spreads they’ve had at home. I’m taking the Bucs to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 78-63-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob