I went 11-13-1 against the spread last week.
My bets were looking great…but then Oklahoma replaced QB Spencer Rattler with Caleb Williams. and that was a turning point. How the hell did Texas lose that game?
Kentucky has a huge ‘prove it’ game against Georgia. Both teams are undefeated, but the Wildcats are far less respected. Can Kentucky surprise everyone and keep it close against Georgia?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 7 of the 2021-22 NCAA Football season (October 16th, 2021).
Florida at LSU (+10.5) – My pick is Florida Gators
Florida is 4-2 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a dominating home shutout 42-0 win over Vanderbilt. Th Gators could have won this game by 70, but they took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. Florida QB Emory Jones was outstanding in the win. LSU it 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 42-21 road loss to Kentucky. The Tigers just struggled in every facet of that game. They just couldn’t do anything against Kentucky’s speedy defense. LSU QB Max Johnson hasn’t played well since their win over Mississippi State at the end of September. He did get some help from RB Tyrion Davis-Price late in the game, but it was too late. The Gators are the better overall team. I would have expected a line closer to 14 points. I expect Florida to cover on the road this week.
Michigan State at Indiana (+4.5) – My pick is Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 6-0 outright and 4-0-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-13 road win against Rutgers. Michigan just rode RB Kenneth Walker III all game, which is an excellent gameplan. Walker is one of the best running backs in the country, so as long as he can get some blocks, the guy is fantastic. Indiana is 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a bye week and were blanked 24-0 at Penn State in their last game. IU QB Michael Penix injured his shoulder in that game and is currently questionable. They are being coy about his status, so it doesn’t look good. They also lost RB David Ellis, but his status is clear, he just had season-ending surgery on his ankle. The Hoosiers are a lost team right now. They are beaten up and expectations were high to start the season…but they are at an all-time low. I’m taking Michigan State to cover in Bloomington.
Kentucky at Georgia (-23) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 6-0 outright and 5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 42-21 home win over LSU. The Wildcats defense is fun to watch and their offense really leans on them for good field position. They are their best when they can just run the ball. Georgia is 6-0 outright and 5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-10 road win against Auburn. The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country. They have only allowed ten points in their last 12 quarters of football. I think Kentucky will surprise some people and keep this within three touchdowns, so I’m taking the points.
Purdue at Iowa (-11.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Purdue is 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. Purdue is coming off their bye week and lost 20-13 in the last game against Minnesota. Their offense hasn’t been very good since they lost to Notre Dame in mid-September. Iowa is 6-0 outright and 5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 home win against Penn State. I was surprised that Penn State scored that much against Iowa’s stellar defense. Iowa needed a strong fourth quarter to get the win. Iowa’s defense should bounce-back at home against Purdue. I don’t see the Boilermakers scoring more than ten points, so I’m taking Iowa to cover.
TCU at Oklahoma (-13.5) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Texas Christian is 3-2 outright and 1-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 52-31 road win against Texas Tech. TCU’s running game was in full control against the Red Raiders. They could have ran up the score, but they let off the gas at halftime. Oklahoma is 6-0 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off an epic comeback win over Texas at the Red River Showdown. The Sooners also may have found a new quarterback when QB Caleb Williams took over for the stagnant QB Spencer Rattler. Williams was outstanding and the offense was night and day with him under center. It appears that he will get the start in this game and should cover against TCU.
Mississippi at Tennessee (+3) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is 4-1 outright and 2-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 52-51 home win against Arkansas. Their offense bounced back after losing to Alabama the week before. The Rebels running game added much-needed help for QB Matt Corral. Tennessee is 4-2 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-20 home win against South Carolina. The Vols offense made a huge improvement when Virginia Tech-transfer QB Hendon Hooker took over. He has thrown 13 touchdowns with only one interception. Ole Miss proved that they can hang with a great offense and I think they will do it again on Saturday. I’m taking Ole Miss to barely squeak out a cover on the road.
Iowa State at Kansas State (+6.5) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
Iowa State is 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off their bye and beat Kansas 59-7 in their previous game. The Cyclones have beaten (and covered) in their last two games against below average teams. They struggled against Baylor in their last competitive game. Kansas State is 3-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a bye and lost their previous game 37-31 against Oklahoma. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson returned from injury and their passing offense had a huge improvement. Kansas State is a different team when Thompson is healthy. The Wildcats are undervalued right now and I think they keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Miami (FL) at North Carolina (-7) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
Miami (FL) is 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. Their last game came two weeks ago when they lost 30-28 at home to Virginia. The Hurricanes offense is nowhere close to the production last year. They desperately miss injured QB D’Eriq King. North Carolina is 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 35-25 loss to Florida State. The Tar Heels are a tough team to handicap. They tend to string together two solid games and then they really shit the bed in the third one. I expect UNC QB Sam Howell will rebound from his average outing against the Seminoles. I’m taking the Tar Heels to cover at home.
UCF at Cincinnati (-21) – My pick is UCF Knights
UCF are 3-2 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 win at home against East Carolina. The Knights offense isn’t at the same level as any of their most recent squads. They took a big hit when QB Dillon Gabriel went down with a season-ending collarbone injury. They have barely cracked 300 total yards in each of their last two games. Cincinnati is 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread. The Bearcats are coming off a 52-3 home win against Temple. Cincy has been fantastic this season, but this line is a little bloated. I realize UCF hasn’t been putting up 40+ points per game, but I think their overall talent level should keep the score within 20 points. I’m taking the points in this one.
Ball State at Eastern Michigan (+1.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals
This is the section where I pick a smaller conference game. Ball State is 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-20 road win against Western Michigan. I wrote Ball State off two weeks ago and they have no won back-to-back games. Cardinals QB Drew Plitt is looking like last year’s model. He threw four touchdowns in their win over Western Michigan. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 outright and 2-4 against the spread. EMU is coming off a 13-12 home win over Miami (OH). The Eagles offense have struggled in their last two games, but they should be able to move the ball better against a below average Ball State defense. I’m still taking Ball State to cover in what could be a close one.
QUICK HITS
Rutgers at Northwestern (+2) – My pick is Rutgers
Clemsona at Syracuse (+14) – My pick is Syracuse
San Diego State at San Jose State (+9) – My pick is San Diego State
Auburn at Arkansas (-3.5) – My pick is Arkansas
Kent State at Western Michigan (-6.5) – My pick is Kent State
UCLA at Washington (-1.5) – My pick is UCLA
Texas Tech at Kansas (+16.5) – My pick is Texas Tech
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (+4) – My pick is Pitt
Alabama at Mississippi State (+17) – My pick is Alabama
Air Force at Boise State (-4) – My pick is Air Force
BONUS PICKS!
Hawaii at Nevada (-14) – My pick is Nevada
Western Kentucky at Old Dominion (+12) – My pick is Western Kentucky
Liberty at Louisiana Monroe (+32.5) – My pick is Liberty
Louisiana Tech at UTEP (+7) – My pick is UTEP
Ohio at Buffalo (-9) – My pick is Buffalo
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 76-70-4
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.