I went 14-10-1 against the spread last week.
I killed it in the early games on Saturday (again), but the late games really beat me up. I was 10-3 after the early games, but the Pac-12 games did me dirty.
There are some big Big Ten games this week. We will know if Penn State and Maryland are contenders after this week.
Can Notre Dame rebound from their home loss to Cincinnati last week?
Can Texas win the Red River Showdown?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 6 of the 2021-22 NCAA Football season (October 9th, 2021).
Oklahoma vs Texas (+3.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
This is a neutral site game that will be played at the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma is 5-0 outright and only 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-31 road win against the Kansas State. Sooners QB Spencer Rattler got back on track in this game after the offense struggled against West Virginia and Nebraska. Texas is 4-1 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a close road win against TCU. They got a huge game from RB Bijan Robinson who rushed for 216 yards and scored two touchdowns. These Red River Showdown games have been notoriously close in recent years. I expect another close game, but I have to give the edge to Texas. If Oklahoma starts off sluggish, Texas has a chance to win this game outright, so I’m taking the points.
Maryland at Ohio State (-21) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
Maryland is 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread. Last week, the Terrapins were blown-out 51-14 at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes defense is one of the best in the country and QB Taulia Tagovailoa threw five interceptions in the loss. Ohio State is 4-1 outright and 2-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a blowout road win at Rutgers. OSU QB C.J. Stroud returned from injury to throw five touchdowns in the victory. Maryland’s schedule up to this point is filled with low-level teams. I could see Maryland going on a losing streak as they go deeper into their Big Ten slate of games. The Buckeyes are the far better team and I believe Maryland is overvalued. I’m taking Ohio State to cover at home.
Boise State at BYU (-5.5) – My pick is BYU Cougars
Boise State is 2-3 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-31 home loss against Nevada. BSU QB Hank Bachmeier needs a little more help from his backfield. He’s having a solid year, but they are largely a one-dimensional passing offense. Brigham Young is 5-0 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-20 road win against Utah State. They are starting to run thin at quarterback as Jaren Hall and Baylor Romney are both dealing with injuries. There’s a chance that third-string QB Jacob Conover starts the game. My guess is that Hall will be healthy enough to start the game, but the team is being coy about it. Boise State is going throw a small rebuilding phase this season. I think BYU will still cover this spread, no matter the quarterback.
Penn State at Iowa (-1.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Penn State is 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-0 shutout home win against Indiana. PSU QB Sean Clifford had another big game against the struggling Hoosiers. Iowa is 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 51-14 road win at Maryland. Iowa’s defense is a huge advantage, and when paired with the efficient play from QB Spencer Petras, they’ve been a great betting team this season. Penn State’s schedule has been weak so far this year. Their best win was a Week 1 win at Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are overvalued due to their padded schedule. I’m taking Iowa to cover at home.
Michigan at Nebraska (+3.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread. The Wolverines are coming off a 38-17 road win against Wisconsin. The Wolverines have bounced-back from a rough 2020 season and their defense looks like some of Michigan’s successful teams in the past. Nebraska is 3-3 outright and 4-1-1 against the spread. The Cornhuskers are coming off a 56-7 home win against Northwestern. Nebraska just ran over Northwestern and racked up 427 rushing yards. It was their best offensive performance of the year. Both of these teams haven’t been tested much this season. Their schedules have been a little light. Nebraska did have a close game against Oklahoma, but the Sooners offense was in a rut at that time. The Wolverines have impressed me more this season. I think they step up and cover this game on the road.
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech (-1) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is 4-1 outright and 2-3 against the spread. The Irish are coming off a 24-13 home loss to Cincinnati. Notre Dame offense just couldn’t move the ball until late in the second-half. Virginia Tech is 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread. The Hokies were on bye last week. They started the season with a big win over North Carolina, but have been rather pedestrian ever since. I thought the Hokies defense would be good this season, but they’ve really disappointed me since their UNC win. I think Notre Dame will be able to move the ball and cover on the road.
Florida State at North Carolina (-17.5) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
Florida State is 1-4 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-30 home win against Syracuse. The Seminoles have failed to cover in four-straight games. FSU QB Jordan Travis is playing better since regaining the starting job, although the opposing team’s talent level has been low. North Carolina is 3-2 outright and against the spread. The Tar Heels are coming off a 38-7 home win against Duke. UNC QB Sam Howell has thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception since their Week 1 loss to Virginia Tech. I expect the Tar Heels will blow out the Seminoles in this game.
Georgia at Auburn (+14.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread. The Bulldogs are coming off a 37-0 blowout home win against Arkansas. Georgia currently has the #1-ranked defense in the country. They haven’t allowed a point in eight quarters of play. Auburn is 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-19 road win against LSU. Auburn QB Bo Nix completed a fourth quarter comeback to secure the win. I don’t see him doing that against Georgia. Nix struggled against Georgia last year, and this year’s defense is even better. I’m taking Georgia to cover on the road.
LSU at Kentucky (-3) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
LSU is 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. The Tigers are coming off a 24-19 home loss to Auburn. LSU’s defense has struggled in back-to-back games. They will need their offense to step up to win shootouts against better teams. Kentucky is 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread. The Wildcats are coming off a 20-13 home win against Florida. Kentucky needed to play a complete game, from every group, to get the win. They even blocked a field goal and ran it back for a touchdown. Kentucky hasn’t been great at building big leads since their offense can be a bit of a struggle. If we start seeing larger point spreads, we will want to take the points…but since this spread is only a field goal, I’m taking Kentucky to cover at home.
Ball State at Western Michigan (-11) – My pick is Western Michigan Broncos
This is the section where I pick a smaller conference game. Ball State is 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-16 home win against Army. Cardinals QB Drew Plitt had his best game this year, but that bar is pretty low in 2021. Western Michigan is 4-1 outright and 3-1-1 against the spread. The Broncos are coming off a 24-17 road win against Buffalo. They have one of the best defenses in the MAC…and unfortunately for Ball State, the Cardinals have one of the worst offenses in the conference. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
Michigan State at Rutgers (+5) – My pick is Michigan State
Akron at Bowling Green (-14.5) – My pick is Bowling Green
Wake Forest at Syracuse (+6.5) – My pick is Wake Forest
Buffalo at Kent State (-5.5) – My pick is Buffalo
Temple at Cincinnati (-29) – My pick is Temple
Oregon State at Washington State (+3.5) – My pick is Oregon State
Memphis at Tulsa (-3.5) – My pick is Memphis
West Virginia at Baylor (-3) – My pick is Baylor
Arkansas at Mississippi (-6) – My pick is Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Florida (-38) – My pick is Vanderbilt
BONUS PICKS!
New Mexico State at Nevada (-31.5) – My pick is New Mexico State
Texas-San Antonio at Western Kentucky (-3.5) – My pick is UTSA
Georgia Tech at Duke (+3.5) – My pick is Duke
Connecticut at Massachusetts (+3.5) – My pick is UConn
Virginia at Louisville (-2.5) – My pick is Virginia
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 65-57-3
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Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.