I went 11-5 against the spread (again) in Week 4.

There are some big games on the schedule this week. I think we will have an idea of which teams are potential playoff teams after this week.

There are a few injuries to keep an eye on going into the weekend. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is in concussion-protocol, Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a calf injury that may or may not force him to miss this week and Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey could return this week. All three of those players statuses are up in the air.

How will Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes manage against the Bills #1 ranked defense?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+2) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 37-20 loss at home to the Cardinals. Arizona was able to run the ball against the Rams and they drained the clock. The Rams turned into a one-dimensional team in the second-half and the Cardinals sealed the win. The Seahawks are 2-2 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a nice 28-21 win in San Francisco. The Niners tried to make it a game late when rookie QB Trey Lance entered the game for inured QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Niners WR Deebo Samuel had an unreal second-half. Rams QB Matthew Stafford should be able to move the ball well against Seattle. I expect wide receivers Robert Woods and Desean Jackson will be open deep in this one. I’m taking the Rams to cover on Thursday Night Football.

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons (-3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

This game is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. The Jets are 1-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off an overtime win at home against the Titans. Jets rookie QB Zach Willson nearly threw for 300 yards and had two touchdowns and a lone interception. His play in the fourth quarter is the reason the Jets had a chance to win in overtime. The Falcons are 1-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 34-30 loss at home to Washington. Atlanta collapsed in the final minutes and allowed Washington to score 14 unanswered points in the final minutes. Falcons QB Matt Ryan had his best game of the season. It helped that he found another receiving weapon in RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson. The Jets may have won their first game of the season, but many came out of that game with some injuries. The Falcons are clearly the healthier team and because games in London have been weird in the past, just being healthy might be the edge a team needs for a long travel week. The Jets are still a bad team, so I’m taking the Falcons to cover in jolly ole’ England. 

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Dolphins are 1-3 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 loss at home to the Colts. They played awful in that game for the first three quarters. The final score would make you think the game was closer than it was since the Dolphins scored a late garbage-time touchdown. The Buccaneers are 3-1 outright and 1-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-17 win on the road against the Patriots. Bucs QB Tom Brady didn’t look smooth in his homecoming game, but he was good enough to win outright (but failed to cover the spread). Miami desperately needs to run the ball to give QB Jacoby Brissett a chance to move the ball. Tampa Bay is masterful against the run and will turn Miami into a one-dimensional offense. Brissett isn’t accurate enough to singlehandedly be the entire offense. I’m taking the Bucs to cover the double-digit spread.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 2-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 27-24 overtime road loss to the Jets. The Titans fell apart in the fourth quarter. Tennessee is feeding RB Derrick Henry 30+ times per game, but it’s not like he’s averaging 5+ yards per attempt. They may want to throw in a little more this week. The Jaguars are 0-4 outright and 1-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-21 loss in Cincinnati. Bengals kicker Evan McPherson kicked a 35-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. It was by far the most efficient game from rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. He played a game manager role and didn’t throw an interception. It’s been a wild week for Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer. He was videotaped groping a young, blonde woman (who was not his wife) last weekend. Allegedly, his apology did not go over well with the players either. I think the Titans come into town and roll over the Jaguars.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-4) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Eagles are 1-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 42-30 loss at home to Kansas City. The Eagles defense just gave up too may yards in the game. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts played well in this game, but you can’t give up nearly 500 total yards and be competitive. The Panthers are 3-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 36-28 road loss to the Cowboys. Carolina game out flat in the third quarter and Dallas scored 20 unanswered points. The Panthers did finish the game strong, but the deficit was too large. There’s a chance that Carolina could get RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) back for this game. I think they will cover this spread with or without him. I’m a big believer in their defense and think that will be the key to a Carolina home cover.

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Broncos are 3-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 23-7 loss at home against the Ravens. They left that game with a laundry list of injuries that could bleed into this week’s contest. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater left with a concussion and rookie stud CB Patrick Surtain II suffered a chest injury that could keep him on the shelf this week. The Steelers are 1-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 loss on the road against the Packers. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a pectoral injury and suffered a hip injury in this game. He is clearly struggling right now. I think Pittsburgh has enough talent to squeak out a cover in this game. It will most likely be a tight game. There are too many question marks on the injury report with Denver right now.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Packers are 3-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 win at home against the Steelers. The Packers offense was efficient and QB Aaron Rodgers added three total touchdowns. The Bengals are 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread. Last week, they needed a game-winning field goal at the buzzer to beat the Jaguars 24-21. The Bengals were trailing 14-0 at halftime and QB Joe Burrow carried the offense in the second-half. Cincinnati has been a strong home team so far this year. They overlooked the Jaguars last Thursday, but were good enough to come back and get the win. I think they will keep this one close and will have a chance to win this one outright, so I’m taking the points.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+8.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots are 1-3 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-17 loss at home to the Bucs. They barely attempted to run the ball against Tampa Bay’s great run defense. Rookie QB Mac Jones was impressive by completing 31 of 40 attempts for 275 yards. His lone interception came when a linebacker came through unblocked and he tried to thread the needle down the middle of the field. The Texans are 1-3 outright and against the spread. They were embarrassed 40-0 on the road by the Bills. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills only passed for 87 yards and threw four interceptions. Mills is not ready to play in the NFL. The Texans are the worst team in the league and the Patriots showed three weeks ago that they could stretch out a lead on the road against a bad team (25-6 win at Jets). I think the Pats will get back on track with a cover against a bad Texans squad.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions are 0-4 outright, but are 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-14 road loss to the Bears. It just took the Lions too long to get their offense going. Their offensive possessions in the first-half were awful. The Vikings are 1-3 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 14-7 home loss to the Browns. The Vikings scored a touchdown in the first quarter, but were shutout the rest of the game. Cleveland’s defense has some monsters on the line. The Browns ran the ball and won the possession clock battle by more than eleven minutes. The Lions aren’t an awful team and should have at least one win this season (Justin Tucker’s leg is the lone reason). The Vikings have won seven-straight games outright against the Lions (6-1 ATS in those contests). I think the Lions will keep this one close. They are being undervalued as one of the last two winless teams in the NFL. I’m taking the points in this game.

New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (+2) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Saints are 2-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-21 overtime home less to the Giants. Saints QB Jameis Winston has been efficient the last two games, but if they fall behind in the game, they lack the ability come from behind. They just don’t trust Winston enough in that position. The Footballers are 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-30 road win against the Falcons. WFT QB Taylor Heinicke is turning into a capable NFL quarterback. He can make all the throws needed to win in this league. As long as he can get the ball to WR Terry McLaurin, Washington has a shot to win. I think WFT will keep this game tight and has a shot to win outright, so I’m taking the points.

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Browns are 3-1 outright and 3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 14-7 road win against the Vikings. Cleveland offense leans heavily on their running backs. Mayfield has thrown just two passing touchdowns this season, but they still find themselves tied atop the AFC North. The Chargers are also 3-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a stellar performance on Monday Night Football with a 28-14 home win over the Raiders. The Chargers have had issues stopping the run this season. They allowed way too many rushing yards against the Cowboys and Chiefs, but they were still competitive in those games. If they can force Browns QB Baker Mayfield to make a couple mistakes, I think this will be an easy cover by the Chargers.

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Bears are 2-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 24-14 home win against the Lions. The Bears leaned on the running game to helped out rookie QB Justin Fields. Unfortunately, RB David Montgomery sprained his knee in the game and will miss 4-5 weeks. The Raiders are 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-14 road loss to the Chargers on Monday Night Football. The Chargers won the possession game and the Raiders offense was stymied. I think the Raiders will use RB Josh Jacobs more in this game. He was coming off an injury and only had 18 total touches. If the Raiders can get pressure on Fields, I think this will be a home cover.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Niners are 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-21 home loss to the Seahawks. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo left the game with a calf injury. Rookie QB Trey Lance threw two touchdown passes late to make this game look closer. San Francisco would have probably won the game if there was a fifth quarter. It looks like Jimmy G ‘could’ be available for this game. The Cardinals are 4-0 outright and 3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-20 road win against the Rams. They had nearly 500 total yards against the Rams, which was very surprising. The Niners have few too many injuries for me to put any money on them right now (kicker Robbie Gould will miss this game too). The Cardinals played too damn well last week, so I’m taking them to cover at home.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7) – My pick is New York Giants

The Giants are 1-3 outright and 2-2- against the spread. They are coming off a 27-21 overtime road win against the Saints. Giants RB Saquon Barkley had a few moments in that game that shows me that he’s slowly getting some of his cutting ability back. The Cowboys are 3-1 outright and 4-0 against the spread. They are coming off a 36-28 home win against the Panthers. They leaned heavily on the running game in that game. RB Ezekiel Elliott had a slow start, but he has really turned it up the last two weeks. Also, backup RB Tony Pollard is being rewarded with double-digit carries and he’s productive with his touches. I know the Cowboys are hot right now, but the Giants are undervalued in this game. They have been playing opponents close and I think they will keep this one tight.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 3-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 40-0 shutout win at home against the Texans. It was their second shutout in their last three games. They have also scored at least 35 points in three-straight games. The Chiefs are 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 42-30 road win against the Eagles. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes and the Chiefs added 200 rushing yards as well. The Bills have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL at the moment. This will be a huge test as their opponents have not been top-notch. If QB Josh Allen can avoid turnovers, I think this will be a tight one and the Bills have a shot to win this outright, so I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Colts are 1-3 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 road win against the Dolphins. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor eclipsed the 100-yard mark and QB Carson Wentz played well. The Colts offense doesn’t hit too many home runs on offense, so they can’t afford to face any deficit. The game is basically over when that happens. The Ravens are 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-7 road win against the Broncos. I expect a similar outcome this week. I could see the Ravens hold the Colts to a couple scores. Baltimore have some speedy playmakers on offense that will be hard to cover. I think the Ravens will cover this one at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 39-23-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob