I went 9-6-1 against the spread last week.

It could be time to change your mind on a few teams. The Panthers didn’t have many believers going into the season, but at this moment, adding QB Sam Darnold appears to be one of the smartest moves this offseason. Also, on the opposite end of the spectrum, the Colts could be in for a very long season.

Can the Vikings get their first outright win this week?

Will Justin Fields make his first NFL start or will the Bears hold off a few more weeks?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season.

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (+7.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off a 26-7 upset win at home against the Saints. New Orleans were short-handed on offensive assistant coaches due to a COVID-19 outbreak. I don’t know how much that affected the game, but it’s clear that it didn’t help them. Panthers QB Sam Darnold threw for over 300 yards and could lead Carolina to a 3-0 start to the season. Texans are coming off a 31-21 loss in Cleveland. They also lost starting QB Tyrod Taylor for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury. Rookie QB Davis Mills took over last week and…it was ugly. He will get his first start this week against the Panthers. I don’t see the Texans being able to stop RB Christian McCaffrey. I also don’t think the Texans have anyone in their secondary that can hang with WR D.J. Moore. Teams can play weird on short rest, so Thursday games can be weird, but I think the Panthers are the much better team and will cover.

Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Washington won a fun Thursday night game against the Giants. The Footballers made a comeback and kicked a field goal in the final seconds to win 30-29. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke played better than almost anyone expected. He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns. He was helped by some solid work from his running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. The Bills are coming off a 35-0 blowout against the Dolphins. The Bills were able to knock Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa out of the game with a rib injury, and their backup couldn’t do anything. The Bills are a complete team right now. The reason I’m going with Washington is because I think they are possibly the most underrated team this week. They have a balanced offense with some real playmakers on defense. I think they play well enough to keep this game within a touchdown. The Bills are very good, but I’m counting on a garbage time score to keep this within the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Colts possibly lost starting QB Carson Wentz (ankles) for awhile in their 27-24 loss at home to the Rams. It’s unknown if Wentz will be able to play this week as he injured both ankles in that game. He is expected to test them during practice this week. If he can’t go, the Colts will turn to QB Jacob Eason. The Titans needed overtime to complete their comeback against the Seahawks 33-30. They leaned on RB Derrick Henry as they had 41 touches for 237 combined yards. I expect a lot of the same against the Colts. The Titans are the much better team and could just ride Henry in the second-half on the way to a cover.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3) – My pick is New York Giants

The Falcons are coming off a 48-25 loss on the road to the Buccaneers. Atlanta did keep this game close for most of the game, but Tampa Bay scored 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Atlanta’s offense looks broken and QB Matt Ryan is trying to do too much, which led to three interceptions last week. The Giants lost in the final seconds to Washington on Thursday. QB Daniel Jones was a true dual threat quarterback in the game. Some of his scrambling was due to Washington’s elite pass rush pushing him out of the pocket. His legs helped the Giants greatly as they are still trying to get RB Saquon Barkley going in his return from injury. I like the Giants this year and they are one of the better 0-2 teams out there. I think they will cover the spread at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens played in an entertaining game against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens completed a comeback with twelve unanswered points. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson wasn’t very smooth early in the game, but he got the offense going with his legs. His defense bailed him out to keep this game close by running in a fumble in the first quarter. The Lions played well in the first-half on Monday night against the Packers, but Green Bay shut them out the rest of the game. The Lions need a better running game if they hope to relieve some of the pressure on QB Jared Goff. It doesn’t help that the Lions wide receivers are a hodgepodge of most team’s WR4s. Goff has been spamming the ball to TE T.J. Hockenson, which is a smart move. I don’t trust the Lions offense against a pretty solid Ravens D. I don’t see Detroit scoring many points in this one, so I’m taking the Ravens to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals won a thriller at home against the Vikings 34-33. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had one of his better games as a pro. He threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns (but he also threw two picks). He has the most talented group of wide receivers he’s had in the NFL. I expect rookie WR Rondale Moore to be one of his favorite targets going forward. The dude is elusive and can rack up YAC yards for the Cards. The Jaguars lost at home to the Broncos 23-13. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is still trying to figure out NFL defenses. He only completed 14 of 33 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. The Jaguars need to try to run the ball a little more. I’m starting to think that Lawrence should have carried a clipboard for a year. The Cardinals passing offense should dominate in this game. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover in Jacksonville.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 loss at home to the Cowboys. This was a game the Chargers should have won, but QB Justin Herbert threw a costly pick in the end zone at the end of the third quarter. That was just a killer and the Cowboys came back to win the game with a late field goal. The Chiefs were victims of a fourth quarter comeback in their 36-35 loss to the Ravens. The Chiefs defense weren’t athletic enough to combat some late-game scrambling from Lamar Jackson. They also didn’t get much help from their running game, so QB Patrick Mahomes tried to carry the team, but the passing game ran out of steam. Herbert has a knack for keeping games close (but goes on to lose most of those games outright). I would pick the Chiefs if this game was -3.5-ish, but this line is a little bloated, so I’m taking the points.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Bears saw starting QB Andy Dalton injure his knee in their 20-17 win over the Bengals. Rookie QB Justin Fields took over, but he may not be ready to be a starter yet. Dalton’s playing status is up in the air as of this writing. The Bears defense was the reason they held onto the win, even though they allowed two late touchdowns. The Browns beat the Texans 31-21 (but didn’t cover the spread). They lost WR Jarvis Landry for the foreseeable future to injury, but WR Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to play for the first time this season. I didn’t like what I saw from Fields last week and I think he will struggle against a much better Browns defense. I’m taking the Browns to cover at home.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Saints were smoked by the Panthers 26-7 last week. QB Jameis Winston looked like his old self by only completing 11 of 22 passes with no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints were without some offensive assistant coaches due to a COVID-19 outbreak, but I think Winston was going to make some bad reads either way. Their struggles running the ball could be due to the absence of the assistants. The Patriots embarrassed the Jets 25-6 last week. Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones played a game manager roles, but Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson had a meltdown by throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns. The Jets are rough right now and will most likely pick very early in next year’s draft. The Patriots should beat teams at the level of the Jets, so it was no surprise. This game could be close if Winston is more careful with the ball. I think he will make a few bad reads and the Patriots will cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are coming off a 20-17 loss on the road to the Bears. QB Joe Burrow wasn’t great as the Bears forced him to throw three interceptions. He did redeem himself late in the game, but Cincinnati ran out of time. The Steelers lost at home to the Raiders 26-17. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a pec injury, which could affect him going forward. It doesn’t help that the Steelers are dead-last in rushing yards. They will need to run the ball to help out Big Ben. The Steelers need to play a complete game to win this one. They’ve disappeared on offense for large stretches of both of their games this year. They may win this game, but I think the Bengals will bounce-back and keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-10.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Jets were bodied in their 25-6 loss to the Patriots. They need to make sure QB Zach Wilson knows that this year is all about advancing his knowledge and comfort as an NFL starting quarterback. He doesn’t need to force throws and attempt to carry the offense on his back. That will just lead to bad habits and that has ruined many young quarterbacks in the past. The Broncos beat the Jaguars 23-13 last week. I like what the Broncos backfield is doing. They aren’t dominating, but they are doing enough to keep the defense honest (I also really like rookie RB Javonte Williams). Their passing game looks like it will always be there. It stinks that they’ve lost WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle) for awhile (and LB Bradley Chubb went on the IR with bone spurs). I would love if this point spread was -9.5 or less, but that extra half-point is making this decision difficult. It’s really hard to cover double-digit point spreads in the NFL. I’m going to roll the dice here and taking the cover.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Dolphins were blanked at home by the Bills 35-0. Starting QB Tua Tagovailoa injured his ribs in the game and backup QB Jacoby Brissett could do anything more than complete short passes. They abandoned the running game early, which is always bad news in their position. The Raiders have impressed me a lot this year. They are 2-0 on the season and are coming off a 26-17 win against the Steelers in Heinz Field. RB Josh Jacobs missed last week’s game, but it didn’t affect the offense much. They couldn’t do much on the ground, but the Raiders passing game is just clicking so well right now. The Dolphins have a lot of question marks and are facing the Raiders at a bad time. The surging Raiders will cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+2) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Seahawks are coming off a 33-30 overtime loss at home to the Titans. The Seahawks just couldn’t stop Titans RB Derrick Henry. They also had trouble with their offensive line with the blocking. They played well in the first-half, but Henry beat up their front-seven and wore them down. The Vikings are coming off a 34-33 loss on the road to the Cardinals. This loss had nothing to do with their offense as they were balanced and moved the ball well. The Vikings defense just couldn’t stop Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Sunday. Arizona’s offense is underrated, so it was a tough match-up. Minnesota could easily duplicate Tennessee’s gameplan and pound the ball with RB Dalvin Cook. The Vikings can also air it out with a trio of talented wide receivers. I’m taking the points in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Bucs needed a big fourth quarter to pull away from the Falcons and go onto win 48-25. Bucs QB Tom Brady made smart decisions and threw five touchdown passes last week. They have are loaded with weapons in the passing game, so it will take a top-notch secondary to keep them at bay. The Rams beat the Colts 27-24 on the road in Indy. The Rams running game will always be a bit rough due to all their injuries. I think when RB Sony Michel gets more reps in this offense, he could eventually become a big factor. He has good hands and it could add a new dimension to the passing game. I don’t expect a ton of rushing yards from either team in this game. Each team’s secondary will be tested and expected 40+ passing attempts from each team. This will be close, but the Rams defense has the edge in this one, so I’ll take the point.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Packers bounced-back with a 35-17 win over the Lions on Monday Night Football. Their offense was awful in Week 1, so it was nice to see them put things together. They needed to score 21 unanswered points in the second-half to pull away. QB Aaron Rodgers was aided by RB Aaron Jones who caught three touchdown passes and scored an extra one on the ground. The Niners are coming off a 17-11 win over the Eagles. San Francisco’s defense is really holding up this year. They are healthy and playing up to their talent level. The Niners did suffer some more injuries to their backfield in this game. It appears that RB Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) might be the only everyday running back healthy-ish enough to play. Keep an eye on the other backs to see if they come off the injury list. The Packers could be an unpredictable and streaky team this year. They were near-automatic last season, but that could be an aberration. I think the Niners defense could force a few turnovers and I’m taking the cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles are coming off a 17-11 loss at home to the Niners. Philly’s offense will live and die on the ability of QB Jalen Hurts. He wasn’t accurate last week and relied a bit too much on his legs. Honestly, the receivers had their hands on their hips late in the game. They were clearly frustrated. The Cowboys beat the Chargers 20-17 last week. They were able to force two key interceptions. They killed the Chargers momentum. RB Tony Pollard might be the most effective running back on the team. He had a great game against the Chargers and had the best hands in the backfield. The Cowboys defense is underrated and Hurts could struggle again this week. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 17-13-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob