Are you ready to place your bets?

I went 152-121-8 against the spread last season. I hope this season will be a little less erratic with COVID issues, but it appears that will not be the case. I would suggest to hold off on placing any large bets until the day before kickoff. There will be a few games ruined by positive tests at some point this year.

There was a huge turnover with starting quarterbacks this offseason. A lot of new faces in new places. Will any of these veteran quarterbacks turn back the clock and play like their peak?

How will Cowboys QB Dak Prescott and Giants RB Saquon Barkley bounce-back from major injuries?

Can the Browns avenge last year’s playoff elimination against the Chiefs?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Bucs basically have the exact same roster they won the Super Bowl with last season. I know the defending champions have won (and covered) in their first game at an insane rate in recent memory, but this point spread is a tad bloated. The Cowboys aren’t a bad team and I think they will hang with the Bucs on Thursday. Their offense will be much better with QB Dak Prescott back. Also, will the veterans on the Bucs be as hungry after winning a ring? I could see the Bucs having trouble covering early in the season and then turn it on in the second-half. I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston (+2.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

Get in on this point spread while you can, guys. I doubt Houston will be seeing many single-digit point spread this year. The Texans are benching troubled QB Deshaun Watson in favor of Tyrod Taylor. They lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and might be one of the worst two teams in the NFL. I like the last few drafts the Jaguars have made and they have some nice young talent. They are better than they were last season. I’m taking Jacksonville to cover on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Steelers come into this season with huge questions on the offensive line. They signed a couple veterans and used a couple draft picks to help patch up the line. We will see if those moves will make a difference, but I have my doubts. QB Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have the same arm strength as he once did and needs to get the ball out faster due to the poor blocking. The Bills front-seven could have a field day on Sunday. It may not be a blowout, but I think the Bills will cover this spread.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

I went back-and-forth with my pick in this game. The Jets hit the reset button and selected QB Zach Wilson with their first pick and signed some receiving weapons this offseason. They are still very thin at many of the playmakers on both sides of the ball. They are a couple years away from competing for a playoff spot. The Panthers acquired the Jets former QB Sam Darnold this offseason. He was once a highly-touted quarterback, but has yet to put it all together in the pros. He does have a pair of solid running backs to help him potentially grow into his role. Darnold didn’t get many reps this preseason, so it’s hard to put your money on a huge, huge question mark at quarterback. I’m rolling the dice and betting on the Panthers other positions, as they have an advantage just about everywhere else. I’m taking the Panthers to cover at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

I love the moves the Titans made this offseason. They helped add playmakers on defense (Bud Dupree & Denico Autry) and made a splash by trading for WR Julio Jones. It’s scary to think that the safeties will have an even harder time to crowd the box to stop RB Derrick Henry. The Cardinals made their own big moves by adding veterans WR A.J. Green and DE J.J. Watt. They were smart moves that didn’t break the bank. A team wanting to take the next step in their growth should sign players of that sort. The Titans could be very good this season and I actually think they are a tad underrated going into the season. I’m taking the Titans to cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Washington Footballers have some buzz going into the season. People are recognizing the growth of some of their young players on both sides of the ball. They signed veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in hopes he can continue some of the magic retired QB Alex Smith had late last season. I would suggest that Fitz isn’t of the ‘Alex Smith mold’. He will try to thread the needle often and interceptions have become an issue in the past. The Chargers will see what Year Two will bring from QB Justin Herbert. He had statistical success in his rookie season, but he had trouble winning close games. They did struggle with injuries at times last year, but those playmakers are back and healthy. This will be the first regular season game for S Derwin James since early in the 2019 season. He was fantastic before the injuries happened and he could be a difference maker in this game. I’m going to take the Chargers to cover on the road.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Vikings didn’t have a great start to the year in 2020, but QB Kirk Cousins found that he had a stud in WR Justin Jefferson. Cousins went to him early and often soon after their early season slide. Teams started to figure out a defense to help cull Jefferson’s output a bit and Minnesota lost three of their final four games. The Bengals had glimmers of hope last season, but after QB Joe Burrow went down with an injury, they packed it in for the year. Burrow was only 2-7-1 as the starter, but most of his losses were single-digit defeats. The Bengals added his favorite weapon in college WR Ja’Marr Chase during the draft and attempted to add better protection for Burrow. This game could be close to the spread, but I’m betting on QB Kirk Cousins to have another slow start to the season. I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (+7.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Lions made a splash this offseason by umm, moving laterally (or even lower) by trading QB Matthew Stafford for QB Jared Goff. They also lost nearly every wide receiver, so they have a brand new group there. It could be a long season in Detroit. In 2020, the Niners dealt with injuries to a degree I haven’t see in a long time. They lost nearly every star player at some point last season, and for multiple games. They should look more like the 2019 squad and I expect a big year from the Niners. They should cover this spread on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Eagles are going all-in with QB Jalen Hurts. There were rumors that they were getting cold feet after QB Deshaun Watson trade rumors started swirl, but that never happened. They used their first pick in the draft on a weapon for Hurts, Heisman trophy winner WR DeVonta Smith. The Falcons added a weapon early in the draft as well, TE Kyle Pitts. He will most likely fill-in some of the targets lost when they traded WR Julio Jones this offseason. QB Matt Ryan is in a pivotal year as the Falcons could look to move on from him if they struggle. He needs help if he hopes to keep his job next year. These teams are pretty darn close in talent level. I am not sold that Hurts can lead a prolific offense in this league right now. I’m going with the home team in this game.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Colts acquired QB Carson Wentz during the offseason and he immediately hurt his foot early in training camp. He is now healthy, but I can’t imagine he had a ton of reps with his new teammates. The Colts aren’t coming into this game completely healthy as veteran WR T.Y. Hilton (neck) and newly-signed LT Eric Fisher (Achilles) will miss a few games to start the year. The Seahawks big question mark is their offensive line. I don’t think they’ve completely solved their issues, but it’s better than the last two seasons squad. Seattle defense isn’t near their Legion of Boom days, as they struggled at times last season. They aren’t much better this year, but they should hold their own against a banged-up Colts offense. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover in Indy.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Patriots selected QB Mac Jones in the first round and then cut former QB Cam Newton this preseason. They clearly think they saw something pretty great from Jones for them to make that move. They will miss star CB Stephon Gilmore for a few weeks due to a quadriceps injury. They could struggle to cover Dolphins WR DeVante Parker this week. The Dolphins officially handed the keys to QB Tua Tagovailoa, a year after his stop-and-start push. He will be helped by his team’s underrated defense. They were the real MVPs last season during their postseason push. Patriots QB Jones could turn into a solid starting quarterback, but I think the Patriots aren’t deep enough to contend this year. The Dolphins is the more complete team and I think they keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points. 

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

These teams last faced each other in the Divisional Round of the playoffs in January. The Chiefs won that game 22-17 and they later went onto the Super Bowl. I feel that the Browns are a tad underrated going into this season. I like the addition of DE Jadeveon Clowney to help even out the line. It could help DE Myles Garrett face less double-teams. Also, the Browns have a healthy WR Odell Beckham Jr., who has a chip on his shoulder to prove that he’s still a Pro Bowl-level wide receiver. The Chiefs added LT Orlando Brown Jr. to the line, which is huge for QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are a public team, so they have to overperform to cover spreads. I think this might be a couple points too high, so I’m taking the points.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is New York Giants

The Giants will get star RB Saquon Barkley back this season and the offense also added WR Kenny Golladay to help QB Daniel Jones in his progression. They return one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. They helped them become one of the most bettor-friendly teams in the league last year. I think they could make a jump this season and be a surprise team. The Broncos added QB Teddy Bridgewater this offseason, which moved QB Drew Lock to the bench. I assume this will be a one or two-year transition for Bridgewater, as Denver will most likely draft a young quarterback in this coming Draft. The Broncos have a lot of receiving weapons for Bridgewater. WR Jerry Jeudy and TE Noah Fant have lot of upside. I think the Giants are a better overall team and I think they will open the season at home strong, so I’m taking the points. 

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints (+4) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

This game is being played in Jacksonville due to hurricane damage in New Orleans. The Saints are transitioning away from QB Drew Brees and named former top pick QB Jameis Winston as their starter. His last starting gig was from 2015 to 2019 in Tampa. His final season there, he threw 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns…but he also threw 30 interceptions. He has always struggled throwing picks. The Packers had an eventful offseason, but it was mostly just drama surrounding QB Aaron Rodgers. They appear to have made up enough for him to return, but it may have just been put on the back-burner until next offseason. He got one of his former weapons back on the team when they acquired WR Randall Cobb. He’s still a talented receiver, but he’s probably WR3, at best. Winston could put up some numbers in this game, but he’s too careless to contend in a game against a good secondary. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the neutral site.

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Bears drafted QB Justin Fields in the first round this year, but they also greatly overpaid for QB Andy Dalton. They want Fields to learn on the sidelines for a year, but Dalton was a bad choice. The overall talent on the team is near-playoff caliber, but the talent-dropoff at quarterback is huge. The Rams made a smart move by trading for QB Matthew Stafford. He’s a little older now, but he still has a big arm to hit WR Robert Woods deep. He’s also a safe quarterback that won’t kill a team with turnovers. The Rams defense is strong enough to help win games, so Stafford doesn’t have to carry games. I expect this game could be close in the first-half, but some costly mistakes from Dalton will lead to this game getting out of control in the second-half…so I’m taking the Rams to cover on Sunday Night Football.

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

I don’t get some of the preseason hype about the Raiders. A lot of people think QB Derek Carr will take a big jump this year. I don’t see that happening. I just love the Ravens a little too much to think the Raiders will have a shot on Monday. They are probably one of the top-four teams in the entire league. The Ravens secondary should do its job and limit the damage TE Darren Waller will do. I’m taking the Ravens to cover on MNF.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob