The NFL added an extra game to their regular season schedule and teams will now play seventeen games. It makes the over/under win totals a little extra tricky.

These win total prop bets have been out there for months now, but I wanted to see the final 53-man rosters for every team before I made my picks.

This year’s strong rookie quarterback class made this offseason more interesting than most. It’s hard for a team to sit a first-round quarterback these days. The life-cycle of a front office is shorter than ever, so these general managers want to see their rookie QBs make them look smart.

Will the Rams or Lions benefit the most from their quarterback swap?

There are a few even win totals, so if I pick ‘PUSH’, it’s mostly just advising you to avoid betting on this team, since the win total will most likely be the real win total. I don’t want you to basically loan your betting site x-amount of dollars just to get back the same amount in early-January.

Arizona Cardinals – 8.5 Wins – OVER

The Cardinals went .500 last year and I love some of the new additions they made this offseason. I think adding veterans like LB J.J. Watt and WR A.J. Green is huge for team that could be just a few pieces away from going deep into the season. I’m going OVER with my pick.

Atlanta Falcons – 7.5 Wins – UNDER

The Falcons are coming off a four-win season and they lost some key players like WR Julio Jones and C Alex Mack. They struggled running the ball last season and I don’t see a running back on their roster that will be their savior. This could be a long season for Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens – 11 Wins – PUSH

There’s a decent chance that the Ravens could surpass the eleven-win mark, but I don’t like putting money down on this and having to wait roughly four months at the chance to win anything with this bet. They changed some faces on the offensive line and the edge rushers are new…and losing RB J.K. Dobbins for the year could cost them a win or two. I have to go with a push here.

Buffalo Bills – 11.5 Wins – OVER

This Bills squad has about the same talent quality as last year’s team that went 13-3. I would even argue that their outside-of-the-division schedule is a little easier this year. As long as QB Josh Allen doesn’t regress and their young defensive studs continues to improve, the Bills should win over 11.5 games this year.

Carolina Panthers – 7.5 Wins – OVER

This win total could be close, but I liked Carolina’s draft a lot. They now have some young talent on defense they can build around. Also, they will hopefully get a full year from RB Christian McCaffrey, who missed most of last season. The big question mark is at quarterback after acquiring QB Sam Darnold this offseason. There are also rumors that they could try to pry QB Deshaun Watson from the Texans before the trade deadline. I’m going with the over here because I think they will be active before the trade deadline and improve the team.

Chicago Bears – 7.5 Wins – UNDER

The Bears will probably be a better betting team than in real-life. Their defense will keep the scores low, but QB Andy Dalton hasn’t been good in three or four years. They should have signed another veteran quarterback than give Dalton the reigns while rookie QB Justin Fields holds the clipboard for most (or all) of the year. I could see them winning seven games, but that would probably be the max.

Cincinnati Bengals – 6.5 Wins – OVER

The Bengals spent the offseason trying to find pieces to help protect QB Joe Burrow. They could have protected him even better had they drafted OT Penei Sewell in the first round, but they selected Burrow’s former teammate at LSU, WR Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati did add some depth on the offensive line and will give Burrow more time to hit their very underrated wide receiver corps. I think they will pull off a couple upsets and squeak by the over this season.

Cleveland Browns – 10.5 Wins – OVER

This is another one that could be close to the win total. Since teams are playing seventeen games, I think they will get eleven wins. I don’t like that some of the veterans on defense left, but they did add DE Jadeveon Clowney and it appears some of their often-injured studs on offense are healthy.

Dallas Cowboys – 9 Wins – OVER

The Cowboys were a joke after QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending injury last year. They have him back now, so they will be a lot better. It didn’t help much that nearly every backup on the team was below average or awful (sorry, Ben DiNucci). They made some additions to the secondary this offseason that I like a lot. If they stay healthy (a few have had injury problems in the past), their secondary should be deep. I’m taking the over this year.

Denver Broncos – 8.5 Wins – UNDER

The Broncos have gotten cold feet on QB Drew Lock. You don’t add a veteran quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater if you have any faith that Lock will be your franchise quarterback. They have some weapons on offense and Bridgewater did have some success with less talent in Carolina…but I feel like if they fall too far below .500, they could punt the rest of the season and hope for a top picks for a re-do at quarterback. I’m taking the under for the Broncos.

Detroit Lions – 4.5 Wins – UNDER

The Lions nearly flipped their entire offense this offseason. There are only a few holdovers from last year. They traded long-time starting quarterback Matthew Stafford to the L.A. Rams in a package that returned QB Jared Goff. I’ve never been high on Goff as the Rams offense wasn’t very consistent with Goff under center. It would take a miracle for him to have success in Detroit with his current weapons. I like TE T.J. Hockenson, but they their entire group of wide receivers that were there a year ago. On defense, they have some good talent in the secondary, but the pass rush may not be there. I’m taking the under with the Lions.

Green Bay Packers – 10.5 Wins – OVER

The Packers front office and QB Aaron Rodgers have had a very public feud this offseason. There is still some visible tension there, but I see the Packers as another thirteen-win team against this year. They have all their weapons back on both sides of the ball and Rodgers appears to play better with something to prove. The over is a great bet this season.

Houston Texans – 4.5 Wins – UNDER

I’m not sold that the Texans will end up keeping QB Deshaun Watson the entire year. We are also still unclear on the status of Watson after spending the entire offseason under investigation for indecent activity while visiting massage therapists. Even though the Texans went out and signed some solid NFL talent, I think they are setting themselves to punt the season for a high draft pick. I’m taking the under.

Indianapolis Colts – OFF THE BOARD

Sportsbooks have pulled the Colts from the win total props due to QB Carson Wentz’s foot injury. It looks like he will be ready Week 1, but I haven’t found a sportsbook that has put this prop back up on the board.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 6.5 Wins – OVER

I’m going to take the over here because the Jaguars play in a bad division. I don’t expect the Colts or Texans to be very good and the Jaguars should be better than they were last year. I would have liked them to have signed another ballhawk in the secondary, but I think they will squeak over the 6.5 win total this season. Also, I’m giving rookie QB Trevor Lawrence the benefit of the doubt as he was great in college. He has some talented weapons to throw to and as long as the O-line gives him some time, I think he will be a Rookie of the Year contender.

Kansas City Chiefs – 12.5 Wins – OVER

The Chiefs didn’t have many spots to upgrade this offseason, but they focused on the offensive line. I love to addition of OT Orlando Brown, as it’s always a smart move to help protect QB Patrick Mahomes. I would have liked to see them sign another wide receiver this offseason, but they have enough weapons to make another run at the Super Bowl. Their schedule isn’t crazy and even as a worst-case scenario, I see them winning twelve games. I’m taking the over for the Chiefs.

Las Vegas Raiders – 7.5 Wins – UNDER

If I thought that QB Derek Carr was an above-average NFL quarterback, maybe this win total could be hit, but I’m far from sold on that premise. I do like some of the additions they made on defense, but they fall short at quarterback. Their schedule isn’t crazy, but they have a lot of tough road games late in the year. If Carr struggles early in the year, the Raiders may try to punt the season or give backup QB Marcus Mariota a run, which doesn’t help the win total. I’m taking the under for the Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers – 9.5 Wins – OVER

The Chargers only won seven games last year, but they had some poor luck in close games. They did finish the year with four-straight wins, in which three were won by a field goal. It was nice to see rookie QB Justin Herbert find his groove and start to win some close ones. I expect him to take a big leap in Year Two and he could push the Chargers into a Wild Card hunt. I think they will win double-digit games this season.

Los Angeles Rams – 10.5 Wins – OVER

I believe QB Matthew Stafford still has life left in his arm. He played well when he has a deep threat, but he has historically struggled when isn’t able to stretch the field. He should get along very well with WR Robert Woods. Stafford will also be helped by the Rams stout defense, which he didn’t have in Detroit for long stretches of his career. I’m taking the over for the Rams.

Miami Dolphins  – 9.5 Wins – OVER

I see two very realistic scenarios for the Dolphins upcoming season, and both see the Dolphins winning double-digit games. The first scenario has the Dolphins seeing a huge leap in improvement from QB Tua Tagovailoa and they go on to win 10+ games. The second scenario would be that Tua struggles in his first four games, so the Dolphins panic and pony up the large asking price for Texas QB Deshaun Watson. He’s good enough that he could win double-digit games with the Dolphins wide receiver corps.

Minnesota Vikings – 9 Wins – UNDER

I don’t hate the Vikings this season, but I see them as a near-.500 team this season. Their win total could end up as a push, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that they will come up a game or two shy of this win total. I like the additions of DT Sheldon Richardson and CB Patrick Peterson, but I would have loved these additions if they happened two or three seasons ago. The Vikings have a few stars that are at the tail-end of their peak and things could fall off fast. I’m going with the under for the Vikings.

New England Patriots – 9.5 Wins – UNDER

The Patriots made a splash on Cut Day when they released QB Cam Newton. The release was the official kick-off of the Mac Jones Era as their franchise quarterback. There will be growing pains and the Patriots will be without CB Stephon Gilmore for the first six weeks of the year (PUP list). I personally don’t think they are built to make a run at a Wild Card spot this year. If the Patriots add some better weapons at WR next offseason, a double-digit win total might be in the cards in 2022, but not this year.

New Orleans Saints – OFF THE BOARD

Sportsbooks have pulled the Saints off the board for the win total prop. They were unsure of who would win the quarterback battle for the Saints.

New York Giants – 7.5 Wins – OVER

The Giants battled injuries early last season and their defense bailed them out. They had the most underrated defense in the entire league. Their offense should be much better this year thanks to the return of RB Saquon Barkley from injury. They also beefed up their receiving weapons by drafting WR Kadarius Toney and signing WR Kenny Golladay. I’m taking the over for the Giants, and wouldn’t be surprised if they push towards a Wild Card spot this season.

New York Jets – 6 Wins – UNDER

The Jets kicked off a new rebuild by drafting QB Zach Wilson this year. I don’t want to rain on their parade, but the talent-level of their current squad is at the same level back when they drafted QB Sam Darnold a few years ago…which isn’t great for Wilson. You could even argue that the Darnold Era defense was better than this year’s squad. They did add a few weapons at wide receiver for Wilson (Corey Davis & Keelan Cole), but they need a lot more on offense to compete for a 6+ win total this year.

Philadelphia Eagles – 6.5 Wins – UNDER

I’m not sold on QB Jalen Hurts. I just haven’t seen what the Eagles apparently see in him. I could see starting someone like him if they were a more complete team, but they have a lot of needs across the board. He could easily be a game-manager quarterback with some elusiveness. They’ve been drafting wide receivers early in the last few drafts, so Hurts has some young talent at that position. The Eagles will see this season that maybe he’s not the guy, or I could be dead wrong. I’m going with the under for the Eagles.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5 Wins – OVER

The Steelers had to replace nearly their entire offensive line this offseason. The group of replacements aren’t great, but they should have a serviceable line this year…but it could be rough at times. It’s no secret that QB Ben Roethlisberger’s arm isn’t as strong, as he struggled to get the ball out fast last year. The Steelers also tried to replace LB Bud Dupree this offseason, who they desperately missed when he went out with an injury last year. They hope the returning LB Devin Bush will help fill the void. The 8.5 win total is probably right on the money, so they could easily win nine or eight games this year. I’m going to give the Steelers the benefit of the doubt, since they are a well-coached team, so I’m going with the over.

San Francisco 49ers – 10.5 Wins – OVER

The Niners were destroyed by injuries early last season and the injury bug infested the entire season. Honestly, they may have been the most injury-riddled team in recent memory. They took QB Trey Lance early in the NFL Draft, so everyone has written off QB Jimmy Garoppolo, but Lance is far from ready to start in the NFL. They don’t have an Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick situation at the moment, but they could in 2022 or 2023. I expect a big year from the Niners offense this year. On defense, their pass rush should be one of the best in the league. They may not have the stud defensive backs like in previous years, but a good pass rush will make their corners look much better. I’m taking the over for the Niners.

Seattle Seahawks – 9.5 Wins – OVER

If the Seahawks upgraded their offensive line or added a pass rusher this offseason, this would have been an easy ‘OVER’ bet, but that wasn’t the case. The addition of G Gabe Jackson is nice, but their O-line needed another upgrade to make me feel more comfortable in my bet. Also, the Seahawks secondary is nowhere near the level of past squads. I still think they have enough playmakers on offense to win some shootouts this year. It could be close, but I’m taking the over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 12 Wins – PUSH

The Bucs basically have every single difference maker from their Super Bowl run. This does have a feel of a team that could almost run the table, but if QB Tom Brady suffers an injury of any kind, the bottom falls out. There’s an extreme drop-off of talent from Brady to Blaine freaking Gabbert. I’m going with a push here because there is just too much risk since your bet relies on the oldest player in the league to stay healthy for the entire season.

Tennessee Titans – 9.5 Wins – OVER

I love some of the additions the Titans made on defense. Adding LB Bud Dupree and DE Denico Autry could push the Titans towards a deep playoff run. I know they lost some talent in the secondary, but they picked up some guys that fill those roles well. The Titans  made a splash by acquiring WR Julio Jones, which I think will pay off. If Jones can keep the safeties back, RB Derrick Henry could be even more effective, which is nuts to think about. I’m going with the over for the Titans.

Washington Football Team – 8.5 Wins – 

Washington’s defense reminds me of Buffalo’s defense two years ago, back when the Bills were starting their ascent towards the playoffs. They have some defensive studs on the line that offensive linemen can’t figure out. DE Chase Young ate up many quarterbacks last season and I expect a Year Two jump. I don’t think the Redskins are a playoff team, but they could win nine or ten games this year. Their offense isn’t great, but I could see a young player like RB Antonio Gibson flourish in the offense with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.