I went 9-6-1 against the spread last week.
I’ve been strong the last few weeks and made up for some average weeks to start the season.
It’s time to start looking up certain playoff scenarios and if a team has any motivation to rest their starters. I don’t see of that this week since there is only one first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, and neither has been clinched in either conference.
Can the Steelers stop their slide and cover against the Colts on Sunday?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Vikings have been awful against the spread lately and all the things that allowed them to win games outright, just haven’t been there for them. Their defense has been getting worse and their offense just hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. The Saints got QB Drew Brees back after missing weeks due to multiple rib injuries. He wasn’t accurate, but he was still able to throw three touchdowns in a losing effort against the Chiefs. I would argue that the outcome would have been similar if they rested him another week and started QB Taysom Hill again. I don’t think Brees is that much of a huge upgrade at this point in his career. The Vikings run defense is awful, so the Saints should be able to unload some of the offense on the running backs this week. This game could be close to the spread, but I’m taking the Saints to cover at home on Friday night.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+9.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are coming off a 31-27 win in Atlanta, but they really struggled to run the ball in that game. I’m not sure RB Leonard Fournette is a legit starter in this league anymore. He needed to fill that role due to Ronald Jones injuring his finger AND also landing on the COVID-19 list. Jones isn’t expected to play against the Lions. The reason I’m taking the Bucs is due to the number of players on the Lions who will be without on Saturday. Most of those players are on defense, but they will also be without some of their coaching staff due to COVID-19. If the Bucs can give QB Tom Brady some time in the pocket, I think he will shred up a short-handed Lions defensive unit.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Niners named QB C.J. Beathard as their starter this week. They also officially put QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Raheem Mostert on the shelf for the remainder of the season. Some good news for the Niners is that it appears that they will have TE George Kittle back for this game. They should probably rest the banged-up tight end as well, because I don’t see him being a difference-maker in the outcome of this game. The Niners pass defense is still solid, but they just aren’t deep enough to deal with the amount of receiving weapons the Cardinals have on offense. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been the best betting team in the NFL this season. They are 11-3 against the spread so far and it looks like they could get their twelfth cover this week. The Raiders have been awful versus the spread and have missed the spread by double-digits twice in their last four games (0-4 ATS in their last four games). The Raiders just hit a wall after their close loss at home against the Chiefs around Thanksgiving. They followed that game with a 43-6 loss in Atlanta and nearly lost to the Jets the next week. The Dolphins defense is the best squad the Raiders have faced in many, many weeks. I’m not sure why sportsbooks are still discounting the Dolphins right now. I love the Dolphins in this one.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (+10) – My pick is New York Jets
Neither of these teams have been strong betting teams this year, but I’m counting on the Browns to overlook the Jets this week. Cleveland could have eyes to Week 17 when they face the Steelers, in what could play a large role in playoff seeding. The Jets are coming off their first win and were able to move the ball and covert third-downs. I can’t say that they were dominant in any way over the Rams last week, but they did enough to possibly ruin any chance to get the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Browns will most likely win, but I think it will be within double-digits, so I’m taking the points.
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Bears have been pretty darn good since offensive coordinator Bill Lazor started calling plays. They’ve had a lot of success running the ball again and QB Mitchell Trubisky is back looking like an NFL-caliber quarterback. The Jaguars are now sitting pretty and in the driver’s seat to get the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, so tanking is a real possibility now. If the Bears offense plays as well as they did against the Texans and Vikings, I think they should cover this one on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Chiefs will secure a first-round playoff bye with a win in this game (or losses by both the Bills and Steelers). The Falcons don’t have anything left to play for, so they will hope to play spoiler in this game. If this game happened early this year, I would have taken the Chiefs to cover this double-digit point spread. The Falcons pass defense was God awful to start the year, but they’ve turned it around. They haven’t been winning games outright, but only one team has beaten them by double-digits since late-October. Atlanta’s running game is non-existent, but I think they should be able to move the ball through the air. The Chiefs should win this one outright, but I’m taking the points. The Falcons have been ‘tough outs’ and have played well against good teams.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
Both of these teams are battling for their respective division crowns. The Steelers started the year off with eleven-straight wins, but have since lost three straight. They looked pretty darn bad in those losses. I would normally pick against the Colts when they face a top-tier team, but the Steelers may have dropped from that tier now. I can’t remember the last time Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger played this bad. I don’t think they will turn it around against a Colts team that are on a three-game winning streak and are running the ball well. I’m taking the Colts to cover this one on Sunday.
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) – My pick is New York Giants
It appears that the Giant should have QB Daniel Jones back for this game. They didn’t play well at all when they had to start veteran backup QB Colt McCoy. Jones may not be an elite quarterback, but this team is so much better than he’s in the game. He can move the ball enough to not put their defense in bad field position. The Giants run defense is pretty good and I think they should be able to make a few stops and keep this one close. It could be near the point spread, but I’m taking the points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-8) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
When two bad teams face each other, I rarely pick the favorite when the spread is over a touchdown. The Bengals are coming off their biggest win of the season, but one could argue that the Steelers really shot themselves in the foot in that game. The Texans are short-handed thanks to suspensions and recent injuries in their backfield. This game could be rather ugly to watch. I’m going to take the points in this one.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team (-1) – My pick is Washington Football Team
Washington QB Alex Smith is back practicing, but he’s still questionable. My guess is that he will play due to this being such a big game for Washington, as they are trying to win the NFC East. If he can’t play, I’d bet on Carolina. I just don’t have much faith in backup QB Dwayne Haskins, as it appears that WR Terry McLaurin could miss the game.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had issues winning close games soon after rookie QB Justin Herbert took over. They finally won a close one against the Falcons and then they did it again last week in overtime in Las Vegas. The Broncos are coming off a lopsided 48-19 loss at home to the Bills. Their run defense isn’t showing up for them lately. The Chargers rushing attack has been pretty weak this year due to injuries, but they could have a lot of success in this one. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+2) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys have played better in recent weeks, but they still have issues on defense. Teams have been running the ball against them with a lot of success. What helps them this week is they face a bad Eagles offensive line. They should be able to get some pressure on rookie QB Jalen Hurts, but there may also be a lot of running lanes open if they go all-out with their pass rush. Hurts really impressed me last week and I think he should be able to squeak out a cover in this game thanks to athleticism of Hurts.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
After watching how the Rams performed against the Jets last week, I am very shy about putting a single penny on them right now. The Seahawks is still statistically among the worst pass defenses in the league, but they’ve been pretty darn good since mid-November. Also, Rams QB Jared Goff isn’t playing well enough to take advantage of any perceived weakness in Seattle’s secondary right now. I’m taking Seattle to cover at home.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Packers can secure a first-round playoff bye with a win (or losses by the Saints and Seahawks). The Titans are still battling with the Colts for the AFC South crown, so they need a win here to keep pace. I expect a big game from Titans RB Derrick Henry again this week. He always turns it up to another level the last few weeks of the season and in the playoffs. If he has a big game here, he could be in line to eclipse 2,000 yards next week against the Bears. The Packers have been on a roll, as they’ve won six out of their last seven games (3-4 ATS). They have failed to cover their last two games, but they faced a near-double-digit point spread in both of those games. This one should be close, but I’m betting on Henry to have a big game, so give me the points.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Bills secured the AFC East title for the first time in many, many years. They could do a victory lap in this one if they beat the Patriots by a lot. The Bills have been playing great and have covered six games straight. They’ve won four of their last five games by double-digits. The Patriots are dealing with some key injuries on offense, which has been below average when they’ve been healthy this year. The Bills will be motivated to complete the sweep against the Patriots this year. I’m taking the Bills to cover on Monday night.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 127-91-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob