I went 6-8 against the spread last week.

This was my first week that I went under .500 this season. I had a rough stretch of afternoon games that really tanked my record for the week.

The Steelers/Ravens game was going to be the best game on Thanksgiving (by far), but due to Baltimore’s COVID-19 outbreak, it was moved to the early game schedule on Sunday.

Can I get another clean Thanksgiving sweep against the spread?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Lions are coming off a 20-0 loss to the Panthers…and they looked even worse than that lopsided score would dictate. Stafford has a thumb injury and he did not play well. The Panthers were able to stack the box and their running game was doomed before it began. The Texans are coming off a 27-20 win over the Patriots. Their defense was shaky, but Texans QB Deshaun Watson was able to overcome some issues on the other side of the ball. I don’t trust the Lions right now. Nearly every impact player on offense is dealing with some sort of nagging injury. I’m taking the Texans to cover on Thanksgiving.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Washington doesn’t get much love from bettors, but they’ve been .500 against the spread. I would even argue that they have been above average with QB Alex Smith under center. Smith had a rough start, but he has gotten his footing and is back to being a solid NFL quarterback. He’s been very good in his last six quarters of football. The Cowboys are coming off a 31-28 win in Minnesota and have won back-to-back games against the spread. Their pass defense has been a tad better than at the start of the season, but they are still a below average unit. I believe the Redskins pass rush will play a large role in this game. We know Cowboys QB Andy Dalton is prone to mistakes when pressured. I think he will make a few mistakes on Thursday and the Redskins will cover in Dallas, so I’m taking the points.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

This game was supposed to be the primetime Thanksgiving game, but the Ravens have had a COVID-19 outbreak. They will be without some key players like running backs Mark Ingram & J.K. Dobbins, LB Pernell McPhee, DE Calais Campbell, C Mark Skura and others. There’s also a chance that more players could test positive. As of Wednesday, there’s still a strong chance that this game could be outright cancelled. My guess is that the NFL will explore all avenues to attempt to get this game played this week since the Steelers already had one game moved and their bye week was earlier this season. If the Ravens are without all those players (and more), I just don’t see them being very competitive in this game. I’m taking the Steelers to cover.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Jaguars will start third-string quarterback Mike Glennon in this game. They need to change things up since they haven’t won a game since Week 1. The Jaguars were 2-1 against the spread with rookie QB Jake Luton, but he is coming off a rough outing. I don’t have much faith that Glennon will be a huge improvement. Jacksonville has struggled in games against strong running games. The Browns offense has been a struggle in recent weeks, but they have had a consistent running game. Cleveland will hit Jacksonville with a steady dose of RB Nick Chubb and should cover this game on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots (+2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are coming off a 28-21 loss to the Seahawks. It wasn’t a bad loss and hung with Seattle all game. QB Kyler Murray banged up his shoulder a little in that game, but it won’t affect his status in this game. The Patriots couldn’t follow-up on their upset win over the Ravens. They fell to the Texans 27-20 last week. They missed RB Rex Burkhead in that game. They didn’t have a bruiser available to covert some short-yardage third downs. I don’t think the Patriots have the depth in their secondary to hang with their receiving corps. I think that will be the difference in this one. I’m taking Arizona to cover in this game.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-4) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers should have QB Teddy Bridgewater back, but RB Christian McCaffrey will miss another game. Carolina is coming off a 20-0 shutout win at home against the Lions. The Panthers offense was a bit sloppy with QB P.J. Walker playing in relief, but the offense did enough to get the win. The Vikings have been a good team against the spread, but last week’s 31-28 loss at home to the Cowboys was disappointing. Their defense just didn’t make enough plays. Minnesota could win this game on Sunday, but if they do, it will be close. The Panthers offense will look a lot better with Bridgewater back, so I’m taking the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (+3) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have been very good against the spread (5-1 ATS in last six games). They have a four-game cover streak heading into this game. They had an impressive outing against the Chiefs on Monday night as they were missing quite a few players on defense due to COVID-19. The offense stepped up and were able to make up for their defensive miscues. The Falcons defense hasn’t been as embarrassing since canning their head coach, but they took a step back last week against the Saints. The Raiders are playing too well and this should be a solid cover in Atlanta.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+7) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

Things didn’t go well for QB Tua Tagovailoa against Denver. He was benched in hopes that veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick could mount a comeback, but he was unsuccessful. Miami’s front office said that Tagovailoa is still the starter. The Jets are 3-1 against the spread in their last four games and have been much better with QB Joe Flacco. It will be tough to keep this one close as it appears that Miami just has their number. They were shutout 24-0 in their last meting a month ago. I think the Dolphins will rebound and cover against the Jets.

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – My pick is New York Giants

The Bengals lost rookie QB Joe Burrow to a nasty knee injury and will start QB Brandon Allen against the Giants. I’ve been talking up the Giants the last few weeks and they’ve covered four-straight games and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They’ve been playing better than their overall record and I think they should be able to stretch out their lead and cover against a deflated Bengals team.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Chargers have been a fun team to watch since rookie QB Justin Herbert took over, but they have become overrated. They haven’t been able to extend leads against teams they should beat and the market corrected hard after they were covering games with ease back in September. The Bills have been playing well and have won three of their last four games outright (2-2 ATS). They are coming off a bye and were victims of the ‘Hail Murray’ play in their last game. The market is going back to normal on the Chargers, so even if the Bills cover, it won’t be by much. This will be close, but I’m taking the Chargers to cover.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Colts beat the Titans 34-17 last Thursday, so this is a fast turnaround for a rematch. The Colts will be without their best two on the defensive line with DT DeForest Buckner and DE Denico Autry landing on the COVID-19/reserve list. Autry missed last week’s game and there’s a chance that he could be activated before this game. The loss of Buckner could be huge as he was a huge factor in limiting RB Derrick Henry in their last meeting. I’m not sure if the Colts offense will be able to stop the running game without him. If the Colts can limit turnovers on offense, they still have a shot to cover this game, but I don’t trust Rivers if he has to mount any sort of comeback. I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have faced some heavy-hitters the last few weeks, so this will be a step-down from the Seahawks and Bucs. The Niners are so banged-up and just when they start to get some guys back, they go back on the injury report. The Rams defense is just too good for the Niners offensive backups to have much success. I’m taking the Rams to cover.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (+6) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints were able to beat the Falcons 24-9 without starting QB Drew Brees. Many thought that QB Jameis Winston would start in his place, but they went with QB Tayson Hill instead. The Saints will be a run-heavy offense when Hill is in the game. He can throw the ball well, but they want to use his athleticism. The Broncos run defense has had their issues this year. Denver isn’t a bad team, but the Saints don’t have any weaknesses right now. I’m taking the Saints to cover due to their running game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Bucs are coming off a 27-24 loss at home to the Rams. QB Tom Brady looked a touch over-the-hill at times in that game. He’s still a very good quarterback, but he may have reached the age where the consistency isn’t there every week. He will need to be his very best against the Chiefs. The Bucs defense has been able to make up for some of the Bucs inconsistencies on offense, but they’ll have their hands full with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has failed to cover their last two games, but I think the market correction really works in their favor in this game. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on Sunday afternoon.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Packers have really been underwhelming lately. They haven’t been very good against the spread and have only covered two of their last six games. They haven’t been extending leads and their last two home games were unexceptional efforts against the Vikings and Jaguars. I’m not going to pretend like this is going to be an easy game for the Bears, because they haven’t had an easy time in any game this season. Their offense labors down the field and they need a few turnovers on defense to stay within the spread. Both of these teams have been under .500 against the spread in recent weeks. If this game goes under -7, I’d go with the Packers, but as the spread currently sits, I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (+5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks rebounded after suffering two outright losses in a row. They avenged last month’s loss to the Cardinals. They were able to spam the ball to WR Tyler Lockett in both games against Arizona. Their pass defense has also improved the last two weeks. The Eagles offense isn’t super explosive, so they should have another solid performance. The Eagles offense has been rough nearly all year, so it would really surprise me if they score in the 20s on Monday night. I think the Seahawks will cover this one on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 87-70-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob