I went 7-7 against the spread last week.

There were a ton of games that came down to the final play of the game to ruin covers. The last-second Lions win and a late missed extra-point in the Browns/Bengals game ruined a lot of bets.

There currently aren’t any games in jeopardy due to COVID-19 positive tests right now. It’s only Wednesday, so things could change since positivity rates have increased all around the country.

Will the Steelers fare well against QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

These teams faced each other a couple weeks ago and the Panthers won 23-16. Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater threw for over 300 yards and Carolina wasn’t really at risk of losing the game after halftime. The Falcons fired their head coach and general manager after that loss. Atlanta has played better since firing their head coach and are coming off a final-second loss to the Lions. A late mistake by Falcons RB Todd Gurley allowed the Lions to get the ball back and they scored a touchdown. The Falcons pass defense is still awful and they could trade a few pieces from their defense before this game. I’m taking the Panthers to cover on Thursday.

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (+2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts haven’t been a strong road team this year. They are just 1-2 outright and 0-3 against the spread. They just started off slow and were unable to lead a comeback, like they did in their last game at home against the Bengals. The Lions are only 3-3 outright, but have covered three of their last four games. They have played better since getting WR Kenny Golladay back from injury. This could be a tight one, but the Colts defense shouldn’t give up many points, so I’m taking Indy to cover on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

These teams faced each other Week 1 and the Packers won 43-34. The game wasn’t as tight as the final score would dictate. The Vikings scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and had a garbage-time touchdown in the final minutes. The Packers could be without starting RB Aaron Jones in this one, but I like their backfield with backups Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon. I’m not strong on the Vikings right now, so I’m taking the Packers to cover.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

Wow, it has been a few years since I saw a line of nearly 20 points. The Jets are as bad as those somewhat-recent bad Jaguars teams and are now trying to trade whoever they can right now to start another rebuild. The Chiefs have faced some top-tier teams this year and the Jets are far from that. I do worry that the Chiefs will lay off the gas late in this one. What gives me hope is that they are coming off a 43-16 win in Denver. Even though they had a big lead, they scored an additional 13 points in the fourth quarter. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover this large lead.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

I know the Browns have played better the last few weeks, but don’t forget how bad QB Baker Mayfield looked early in last week’s game against the Bengals. He needed a Herculean effort to come back and win that game. The Browns pass defense has been below average and they’ve needed Mayfield to throw a lot in order to win those games. The Raiders passing offense is good enough to get the job done against the Browns secondary. This game could be close late, but I like the points in this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

These two teams are pretty even, but I would say that the Steelers are the ‘hotter’ team. Their offense is smoking and they are getting the absolute most from their passing game. Their defense bad a mistake last week and nearly allowed the Titans to tie the game with no time remaining. The Ravens are coming off a bye and just squeaked by the Eagles in their last game. The last time Baltimore faced a potential playoff team (Kansas City), they lost that game 34-20. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns, while Ravens QB Lamar Jackson turned into a one-dimensional wishbone quarterback. I think the Steelers have the advantage in this game. If Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger can limit turnovers, they should beat Baltimore, so I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 5-1 on the year, but are only 2-4 against the spread. They’ve needed some comebacks in recent weeks and they’ve only beaten an opponent by more than a field goal just once in regulation. I like how they match up and think Titans RB Derrick Henry will be able to bully the Bengals front-seven. I’m taking the Titans to cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

This will be Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa’s first NFL start. I was negative on Miami making the move at QB during a winning streak, but oh well, Tua should be good right out of the gate. The Dolphins defense hasn’t been too shabby either. They have won three out of their last four games and it has been a team effort. The Rams are coming off a 24-10 win over the Bears on Monday night. They haven’t been very average against the spread. They just aren’t very flashy on offense, but it has gotten the job done in ‘real life’. The Rams will most likely win, but that extra half-point scares me, so I’ll take the points.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

I’m almost scared to pick the Patriots right now. They have been so bad the last three weeks. I’ve heard rumors that they could start to trade off some of their stars like CB Stephon Gilmore before the deadline. The Bills haven’t played the greatest over their last few games either, but their issues are correctable. They played some top talent in those games and Bills QB Josh Allen just needs to get back on track. I think the Bills bounce back and get their first cover since early this month. I’m taking the Bills to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

This is an interesting game. Young quarterbacks aren’t consistent and this game features two of them. I mentioned in my fantasy sit/start post that I liked the Denver Broncos defense this week. I think they will pressure and possibly sack Chargers QB Justin Herbert quite a bit, but I also think the Chargers defense will do the same to Broncos QB Drew Lock. I expect a close game, but I like the poise Herbert has shown late in games so far in his career. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+4) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Bears offense is just not up to the level of most NFL teams. They’ve been winning games thanks to their defense, which has been very good in games. The Saints haven’t been very good against the spread because their defense has let them down a lot this year. They are only 2-4 against the spread on the year. They lost WR Michael Thomas to an injury early this year and he has yet to appear in a game thanks to the lingering injury (and a suspension for punching teammate in practice). Thomas still isn’t practicing, so it becomes less and less likely he could appear in this game. It’s hard to point to one specific reason why I’m taking the Saints in this one. I guess I’m just not sold on the Bears scoring enough points to keep this one close.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are starting to look like the team we were all expecting this year. The injuries early this season just limited them so much. They were starting to get some guys back, but they lost WR Deebo Samuel and RB Jeff Wilson Jr. last week to injuries that will keep them out for a few games. They have some capable backups, but those losses hurt. The Seahawks have failed to cover their last two games after starting the year with four-straight covers. They are coming off a 37-34 loss to Arizona in overtime. Seattle’s pass defense is really their only weakness, but it’s such a huge weakness. If Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo can get the ball to TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk consistently, I think they will keep this one close (or win outright), so I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

It looks like the Cowboys may have to start rookie QB Ben DiNucci since Andy Dalton is still in concussion-protocol. DiNucci was once backup to Nathan Peterman at Pitt, but transferred to James Madison after losing a quarterback battle to Ryan Pickett. He led the Dukes to the FCS Championship game, but lost to Eagles QB Carson Wentz’s alma mater, North Dakota State. Dinucci could be decent in this role, but I have my doubts. The Cowboys have the same bad defense out there and the offense will score less points…so I don’t have high hopes for Dallas to keep this game close. I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (+10.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have the third-best defense in the league and the Giants have the 31st ranked offense. The Bucs have been on a roll lately and have scored at least 38 points in three of their last four games. I’m always shy about taking double-digit point spreads, but I don’t see the Giants cracking double-digit points on offense. I see this as an fairly easy cover for the Bucs on Monday night.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 59-45-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob