I went 8-7 against the spread last week.

Last week, we had one cancelled game due to COVID-19 and it was rescheduled. The later these COVID-19 cancellations happen, the harder it will be to find a proper date to reschedule the game.

We aren’t free from more potential cancelled games this week. There are two games that are currently ‘off the board’ as of late Wednesday night. If those games aren’t cancelled, I will have picks up once the lines are available.

Can Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert cover against the spread on Monday Night Football?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs needed to make a big second-half comeback to beat the Chargers last week. Bucs QB Tom Brady was just ‘off’ in the first-half. Everything clicked on both sides of the ball after halftime. They did lose TE O.J. Howard for the season, but the Bucs are deep at tight end, even if Tampa Bay’s offense tends to forget that position in their offense more than they should. The Bears are coming off a 19-11 loss at home against the Colts. Bears QB Nick Foles was inconsistent and they never got their running game going. They just won’t be able to replace what they lost when RB Tarik Cohen tore his knee. The Bucs have some injuries at wide receiver and it looks like they could be without both Chris Godwin (listed as out) and Mike Evans (who is currently questionable). I still think the Bucs have enough talent on both sides of the ball to cover this spread on Thursday night.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off an impressive win at home against the Cardinals. They were able to move the ball down the field and had 30 first downs in the game. When Carolina has a favorable match-up for QB Teddy Bridgewater, he tends to pull through for them. The Falcons are winless on the season and have the second-worst pass defense in the NFL. Last week’s 30-16 loss in Green Bay was by far their worst performance of the year. Their offense have kept them competitive in their previous three games, but they are suffering a bit too many injuries on offense to make up for their poor pass defense. They could be without both WR Calvin Ridley (thigh) and WR Julio Jones (hamstring) in this game, as they are both currently listed as questionable. The Panthers have some talent at wide receiver and that group is underrated. I expect a big day from Panthers WR Robby Anderson. I’m taking the points in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Eagles are coming off a surprising 25-20 win in San Francisco. In the Niners defense, they really shot themselves in the foot over and over again. They did not get good play from QB Nick Mullens and was replaced by third-string QB C.J. Beathard. The Steelers are coming off an impromptu bye week since the Titans had numerous positive COVID tests and the game was delayed a couple weeks. The Eagles offense has been bad and I don’t see them doing much against the Steelers front-seven. Eagles RB Miles Sanders has been the long bright spot for them on offense, but this should be his worst game of the season. The Steelers are rested and should cover this spread at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-13) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

I get why the Ravens are favored by this much. Baltimore has one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and the Bengals are the Bengals. I’m not saying that Cincinnati is as bad as previous seasons, but their reputation is still at that level. Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow has had good moments this year and is coming off a 33-25 win at home against the Jaguars. He is also finding some chemistry with rookie WR Tee Higgins. It appears that veteran WR A.J. Green just isn’t getting the targets right now, but that could change at some point this season. Another thing that helped Cincinnati last week was RB Joe Mixon. He had his best game of the season by gaining 150 yards and scoring two rushing touchdowns. The Ravens shouldn’t have a close game against the Bengals, but Vegas knows that it takes quite a bit of points for the public to put any money on Cincinnati. I think this should be enough to take the points in this contest.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans fired general manager/head coach Bill O’Brien this week. They are winless on the year, but they are better than their record shows. This game is a little tricky since you never know how a head coaching change will affect the team. They just haven’t gotten the level of play you would expect from their roster. The Jaguars are 1-3 this season and have lost three-straight games. They are an inconsistent team and haven’t fared well against the Texans in recent years (0-4 in last four meetings). The Texans know their jobs are on the line from this point forward. They can’t sit back as a new GM could easily replace whomever he wants. I think that is a big factor when a team fires a head coach or general manager. A fire should be lit under players like RB David Johnson and WR Brandin Cooks.  I’m taking the Texans to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (+7) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Jets have decided to sit QB Sam Darnold this week and will start Joe Flacco in his place. Darnold injured his shoulder last week, but finished the game. They are being cautious with him, which is smart. They didn’t look very good in their 37-28 loss at home to Denver last week. The Broncos gave them plenty of opportunities in that game, but Denver extended their lead in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Panthers. Their offense wasn’t bad in that game, but they were a bit too one-dimensional. The Cardinals didn’t throw far down the field and just focused on the run. The Panthers were just super efficient against them and their defense just let them inch down the field a few too many times. The Cardinals defense isn’t usually a weak spot, but they didn’t get the job done a week ago. The Jets offense has a ton of injuries and are running on empty. The Cardinals defense should bounce back and stop them on Sunday, so I’m taking the Cardinals to cover.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are coming off a 30-23 loss at home to Buffalo. It was an admirable attempt against a good Bills defense. The issue I have with them this week is that TE Darren Waller, who is currently questionable with a knee injury, may not play against the Chiefs. He had been very limited in practice so far this week. He is such a huge focus of the Raiders offense that it would really put them in a huge hole right away. The Chiefs is coming off a big 26-10 win at home against the Patriots. The Raiders offense will screech to a halt without Waller, so I’m taking the Chiefs to cover.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Niners have been without starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo the last couple weeks. He is currently listed as questionable, but he has returned to practice (along with RB Raheem Mostert). They are coming off a loss to the Eagles, but their offense should look much different with those guys back. The Dolphins are 1-3 (2-2 ATS) on the season, but have been better than that record. They should probably be 3-1 or 4-0 against the spread if it wasn’t for a couple late scores. They don’t have many stars on the team and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t exude a ton of confidence, but they’ve hung with teams like the Seahawks, Bills and Patriots this season. The Niners may win this game, but the Dolphins will keep this one within double-digits, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team (+7) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

Washington announced that they are demoting QB Dwayne Haskins to third-string and will start QB Kyle Allen against the Rams. Head coach Ron Rivera does have experience with Allen as he played for him on the Carolina Panthers. He had modest success as a replacement for QB Cam Newton. In 13 games, he threw for 3,322 yards and threw for 17 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. I don’t expect him to be much better than a 1:1 TD/INT quarterback, I think that would be a best-case scenario. The Rams are coming off a rather underwhelming effort in their 17-9 win against a banged-up Giants team. The Redskins will be without some key young talent on defense. They won’t have the speed to defend the Rams on Sunday. I’m taking Los Angeles to cover on the road.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-11) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Broncos won a pretty ugly game last ween against the Jets. If they were facing any competent team, they would have lost. The Patriots defense will make the young quarterback turn the ball over. I expect a lot of work from the Patriots running backs. I’m taking New England to cover the game.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

Both of these teams come into this game with 3-1 records. The Colts have won three-straight games and are coming off a win in Chicago. The Browns are coming off their biggest win in a long time when they beat Dallas 49-38. They did suffer a blow in that game when RB Nick Chubb injured his knee and will miss over a month. The Colts are also dealing with their own injuries with two of their top wide receivers are out with leg injuries. Their biggest injury might be LB Darius Leonard, who is currently listed as questionable with a groin injury. The Colts defense has improved, but they’ve struggled in the past when Leonard missed games. The Browns offense is still very good without Chubb, they are deep on running back and they have talent all over their offense. The Colts offense is rather one-dimensional and if the Browns can stop or maybe limit RB Jonathan Taylor, I’m not sure that QB Philip Rivers can limit his turnovers if he throws the ball more than 25 times. I’m taking the points in this game.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings once had one of the best defenses in the NFC, if not a top-five in the entire NFL. They’ve lost a lot of talent on that side of the ball and are currently ranked 29th in the NFL. They just haven’t been able to stop opponents and they are facing one of the best quarterbacks in the league on Sunday. I know Seattle has their own issues stopping the ball on defense as they are last in the league in pass defense. If this ends up being a shootout, Seattle wins that game (and covers) nine out of ten times. I’m taking Seattle to cover on Sunday. 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

One of the biggest stories in the NFL is the horrible Cowboys pass defense. It had negated all the improvements they’ve made themselves in the passing game. Well, the Browns didn’t need a passing offense to beat them. They only passed for 202 yards and they just fed their running backs all game. They rushed for 307 yards, so the Cowboys defense has more than just their pass defense to worry about. I believe Dallas will run the ball more to limit the opposing team’s time of possession. A team’s offense can be a team’s best defense if they drain the clock. The Giants might be the worst team in the NFL. They’ve only scored 47 points all season. They have faced four probable playoff teams in their first four games this season, but they haven’t impressed me at all since RB Saquon Barkley went down for the season with a knee injury. The Cowboys will rebound and cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

This game could be played in Indianapolis due to Hurricane Delta. The Chargers have lost three-straight games since rookie QB Justin Herbert took over as their starting quarterback. That stat doesn’t project the real story as the Chargers are 2-1 against the spread in that time. He has thrown for 931 yards in those three games. It’s clear that the Chargers offense moves the ball better with the young quarterback under center. He will be without RB Austin Ekeler this game as he injured his hamstring last week. The Chargers have a pair of running backs, Joshua Kelley & Justin Jackson, and both are talented running the ball and perhaps more importantly, in the passing game. The Saints have been without star WR Michael Thomas the last three weeks and are 1-2 against the spread without him. Saints QB Drew Brees was finally starting to hit wide receivers WR Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith with more success. The Chargers defense let the Bucs come back last week and that is a little worrying. I still think the Chargers offense can keep this game close. If the 1/2 point wasn’t there, my pick could go the other way…but I’m taking the points on Monday night.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Titans have had to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak the last two weeks. Teams said that they knew that the Titans didn’t have serious protocols at their facility. They will be short-handed as they will be without a handful of players who are currently out due to the illness. The Bills front-seven will need to be on point against Titans RB Derrick Henry. I think they are up to the task. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won’t have wide receivers Corey Davis or Adam Humphries, so they will need a big game from Henry to keep this one close. I’m taking the Bills to cover on Tuesday.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 36-26-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob