I went 9-6-1 against the spread last week.
I delayed my weekly NFL betting picks by a few days due to Christmas and the fact that not every team out there have announced whether or not they will play their starters this week.
I also decided to not write a fantasy football article this week just due to how random Week 17 can be in fantasy. There are so many variables that can happen and if you’re behind by a lot in your championship game right now, it could be a rough road for a comeback.
There are a ton of games with importance this week, so it should be a rather competitive week. There are only a handful of games with nothing on the line.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs would need to win and the Patriots to lose in order to get a first round bye in the playoffs. They’ve been playing great since blowing out the Raiders on December 1st. They’ve covered every game in December so far. I don’t foresee them resting their starters unless the Patriots get out to a crazy lead against the Dolphins. The Chiefs should finish strong at home with a cover.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16) – My pick is New England Patriots
There was a time when the Dolphins were a sneaky good pick against the Patriots. They were always underrated and would be a smart play…but they haven’t covered against the Patriots in four years. The Dolphins definitely improved since Week 1, but the Patriots will start this game strong as they need a win (or Chiefs loss) to secure their first round bye in the playoffs. I’m taking the Pats to cover.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+13) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Saints are currently tied with the Packers and 49ers for the best record in the NFC. They will need to play their starters in this game in hopes of getting home-field advantage, or at the very least, to clinch a first round bye. The Panthers are coming off a beating at the hands of the Colts last week. Rookie QB Will Grier wasn’t much of a factor in his first start. The Saints are playing great right now and they should cover on the road.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1) – My pick is Chicago Bears
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is still weighing his options about which of his starters will play this weekend. They already clinched a Wild Card spot and it would be smart to rest some of his guys for next week’s playoff road game. The Bears are playing for next year and I would even suggest that they need a strong finish to change some people’s opinions on QB Mitchell Trubisky and head coach Matt Nagy. The Vikings will probably rest their stars and the Bears can get a win in Minnesota.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Neither of these teams are playing for anything this week. I suppose Bucs QB Jameis Winston could be playing for a contract. There were reports before last week’s game that Winston could get a contract offer from the Bucs this offseason, but he then threw a ton of picks in the following game. Tampa Bay won their last meeting 35-22 in late-November. The Bucs should run a pass-heavy offense to get some more game tape on Winston before they make a tough decision. I’m taking the Bucs to cover at home.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Bengals have locked in the #1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and the Browns season has been a bust since about Week 3. The Browns have mostly won games against bad teams this season and they will continue this week. Cleveland beat Cincinnati 27-19 back in Week 14 and I expect a similar outcome this week in Cincinnati. I’m taking the Browns to cover in Week 17.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5) – My pick is New York Jets
The Bills are locked in their spot as the best Wild Card team in the AFC. The Jets are once again playing a meaningless game in Week 17. They could be playing for their head coach’s job in this game. They hired him last offseason and expected a lot more from Adam Gase. I know the owned gave him a vote of confidence in mid-November, but he could change his mind. The Bills announced that they won’t rest their starters this week, but I highly doubt they will play most of the game. There’s no need and it would be a dumb move. I’m taking the points in this game.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+12.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
As I mentioned earlier, the Packers are in a three-way tie in a battle for home-field advantage in the NFC. The Lions have been running on fumes for weeks now. They should be easy pickings in Week 17. The Lions have been trying to get the season over with since before Thanksgiving. Green Bay would love to get out of this game healthy with a strong win and I think they’ll cover.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-11) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys will need to win this game and for the Eagles to lose in order to win the NFC East. They’ve been playing like dog shit and have been very inconsistent. That being said, the Redskins are starting QB Case Keenum and are resting rookie QB Dwayne Haskins. I hate Washington if they don’t have Haskins in this game. The Cowboys should cover at home.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Both of these teams have nothing to play for and the Rams are going to rest their starters. If the Cardinals can’t keep this within a touchdown against the Rams scrubs, something is wrong. Arizona has had their moments this year, but they need to do a lot this offseason to be more consistent. I have to take the points in this one.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+4) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles need to win (or Cowboys loss) to clinch the NFC East. It’s been a real struggle for them this season, but due to the Cowboys collapse, they are in the driver’s seat for the division. The Giants are coming off an overtime win against the Redskins last week. QB Daniel Jones had one of his best games of the year. The Giants would love for them to play spoiler on Sunday, but the Eagles tend to do well in high-pressure games. Hell, they’ve been damn near great in those games the last three seasons. I can’t bet against the Eagles right now, I’m taking them to cover on the road.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Texans can’t get a first-round bye in the playoffs, but they will still host a playoff game next week. Texans fans want to see the team rest their stars this week, but it looks like Houston will play their starters this week. The Titans and Steelers are fighting for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Tennessee is playing better in my eyes and I think they will be a harder team to beat in the playoffs. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill should be a starting job somewhere this offseason, he’s been very good. I think the Titans will cover on the road.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Jaguars could see their head coach fired on Monday. It’s a year overdue as I thought they should have let him go after last season’s disaster of a season. The Colts played great against the Panthers last week and it would be a big feather in their cap if they can finish 8-8 after the Andrew Luck retirement bomb happened this preseason. Also, they’ve struggled with injuries all season. They are healthier now than they’ve been in awhile and think they will cover this week.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Denver Broncos
This is another game with nothing on the line. I actually like the Broncos in this game as they are trending in the right direction. If they can pass the ball a little, they should cover at home. Their running game should be the focus, but if QB Drew Lock excels in his role, the Broncos will cover. I don’t like the Raiders in this game, it’s just a bad match-up for them.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+2) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have already locked in home-field advantage and will be resting their starters. The Steelers are battling for the second Wild Card spot with the Titans. That being said, the Ravens should still keep this game close. They will have QB Robert Griffin III out there auditioning for a gig next season. I still think he has something left in the tank and would love to see him in an offensive scheme suited for his skills (aka Lamar Jackson scheme). The Steelers may have a hard time getting a win in Baltimore, so I’m taking the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The NFC West is up for grabs in this game. There’s also a chance of a possible first-round bye on the line. Seattle won their last meeting in overtime during a fun Monday Night Football game a few weeks ago. Seattle lost two running backs for the season last week and they had to reach back into their past and signed running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Seattle might be a little too beat up right now. Their running game is a huge part of their offense and I’m not sure what Lynch has left in him. He didn’t play well in Oakland last season. The Niners defense should come through in this one and I’ll take the Niners to cover.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 135-103-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob