I really don’t want to talk about last week. I’d rather just skip straight to my stellar college football picks, but since I’m transparent as hell, I was only 3-8-2 last week. It was my worst NFL betting week in more than a decade. It was just one of those weeks where nothing went right and my reads were off.

I feel much better about this week’s picks. There were some upsets last week and Vegas got the best of many of us, so you can’t hang your head about it.

There are a few starting quarterbacks that are coming back from injuries this week. Can Nick Foles get the win in his return for the Jaguars?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been dog shit against the spread. They are 2-6-1 against the spread, which isn’t surprising as they were expected to be a possible playoff team this year. They haven’t covered a spread since Week 4. The Steelers are on a great betting run as they are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games. I feel like Vegas is catching up to both teams. Cleveland is fixing their offense and getting RB Kareem Hunt back from suspension added a new dimension to their offense. They are lining him up in the slot while keeping RB Nick Chubb in the backfield. It could be lethal if they can utilize formations with Chubb, Hunt, OBJ, and Landry all in the game at once. Thursday games have been a bit weird lately and I think the Browns will end their gambling misfortune this week, so I’m taking the Cleveland to cover at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-5.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Falcons are coming off a 26-9 upset win against the Saints. They were able to pressure Saints QB Drew Brees and end drives early. New Orleans didn’t even attempt to run the ball much, which in hindsight was a big mistake. The Panthers are coming off a bye and they run most of their offense through RB Christian McCaffrey. They won’t stop running the ball, even though the Falcons pass defense has been very bad for most of the year. I know picking the Falcons is trendy, but I’m going with the Panthers to cover at home.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are arguably the hottest team in the NFL. They are coming off a huge dominant, upset win against the Patriots and followed that up by smoking the winless Bengals (again). I would like my pick more if the line was -3, but I don’t think it will hit that number as I assume it may go up the closer we get to kickoff. The Texans can throw on the Ravens, but Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey should drape Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins will still get a handful of catches, but Humphrey should neutralize most of his big plays. I don’t think the Texans have the playmakers on defense that can deal with a scrambling QB Lamar Jackson. I’m taking Baltimore to cover at home.

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

I think the Vikings will win this game and be in control for most of the contest, but it will be close enough that Denver could score some points in garbage time to clear this point spread. Denver is coming off a bye and QB Brandon Allen got another week of 1st team snaps in practice. This game will come down to Denver’s defense and if they can keep the Vikings under 24 points. I don’t have much faith that Denver will score more than 14, but if they can keep Minnesota under 24, I think they have a shot against this point spread. Denver has the running backs to be able to eat the clock up if they stay close, so that will help a ton. I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+6) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

I know the Dolphins have an unbelievable two-game winning streak going into this game. Their wins were against the Jets at home and against the Jacoby Brissett-less Colts. Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been okay in those games, but we all know that he’s okay for a few weeks every single year. He then collapses and becomes the reason his teams lose. I believe this is the week that may happen. Buffalo’s defense may eat him alive. Hell, Buffalo QB Josh Allen may even have a great game. Miami is a trendy pick this week, but I’m going against the grain here and think the Dolphins will letdown gamblers this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is starting QB Nick Foles for the first time since he was injured back in Week 1. They paid him a lot of money and he is known for his late-season magic over the last two seasons. They will need him to do well against the Colts, who have been very good against the run this year. I think Foles is the smart choice to start as QB Gardner Minshew wasn’t getting the job done against good teams. The Colts are expected to start QB Jacoby Brissett who has been a full participant in practice this week. Their offense should look better than it has been the last two weeks, but I think the Jaguars defense will limit him. I have to take the points in this game.

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-1.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are coming off a 34-27 win at home against the Giants. QB Sam Darnold is starting to get WR Demaryius Thomas more involved in the offense. He is taking all the targets away from WR Robby Anderson, which isn’t a bad thing in my eyes. They couldn’t get RB Le’Veon Bell going much against the Giants, but they didn’t stop trying. They shouldn’t have that issue against the Redskins, who have been out-gained on the ground in all but two games this season. Also, the Redskins are starting rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who has struggled this season. The Jets defense is underrated. They have allowed some big plays, but they do have some playmakers that can force turnovers and pressure the quarterback. Their pass rush was a huge reason why they beat the Giants last week. I’m taking the points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (+4.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

Lions QB Matthew Stafford was a late-scratch from last week’s game against the Bears. Detroit started QB Jeff Driskel and he lost 20-13. to the Bears. Stafford hasn’t practiced this week and I’m going to assume that he’s not going to play again this week. He has broken bones in his back, the dude is going to be out for more than a week. Driskel does just enough in games to make you think he has a shot to win the following game, but I’m not falling for it. I made a ton of money late in his college career when I started to bet against him. I’m going to add to that total by betting against him against, so I’m taking Dallas to cover. 

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

New Orleans really shit the bed against Atlanta last week. They bailed on the running game and they couldn’t stop Atlanta’s running game on third downs. The Falcons really milked the clock and they forced the Saints to attempt field goals in all three times in the red zone. The Bucs are coming off a 30-27 win against the Cardinals. Arizona would have probably won if they had a healthy backfield. Bucs QB Jameis Winston couldn’t take advantage of the Cardinals poor pass defense. He did throw for 358 yards, but he only threw for one touchdown and still had two interceptions. Winston’s interceptions have killed a few games for the Bucs this year. He will have trouble against the Saints pass defense and will most likely threw a few more picks this week.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

These teams faced-off two weeks ago. The Niners beat the Cardinals 28-25 on a Thursday night game. Arizona RB Kenyan Drake ran for over 100 yards after being acquired a few days before the game. The Niners are coming off an overtime loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. It was their first loss of the year. They were very good against the spread early this season, but only have one win against the spread in their last four games. The Cardinals have been sneaky good betting team and only have on loss against the spread since Week 4. The Niners have some injury issues with TE George Kittle, RB Matt Breida and WR Emmanuel Sanders all dealing with injuries that kept them or knocked them out early of last week’s game. Their statuses for this game is questionable, which basically means they are most likely game-time decisions. I’m taking the points.

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

Both teams are coming off their bye week. The Patriots are damn near impossible to beat coming off bye, so the Eagles have a huge task ahead of them. Philly will need QB Carson Wentz to be able to move the ball through the air with more success if they hope to keep this one close. He hasn’t been doing that of late, but their running game has been carrying the offense. The Patriots kill one-dimensional teams and I don’t see the Eagles being able to throw the ball well against them. I’m taking the Patriots to cover in Philly.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders have been a consistent team and are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. That being said, they have only been favored in one game all year. They are 5-4 outright on the season, but their biggest win was only by eight points. I feel like that stat matters as some teams just don’t play well when they are heavily-favored. They can get the win, but don’t have ‘pull away’ ability. Oakland is a good home team and the Bengals are starting a rookie at quarterback. My pick may have been different if the line was -9.5, but this double-digit point spread doesn’t do it for me. The Raiders should win, but the Bengals could get a backdoor cover late in the game, so I’m taking the points. 

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams haven’t been the most consistent betting team this season. They have lost very winnable games, but have also beaten the spreads by double-digits in many games. On the flipside, the Bears have basically been consistently bad since late-September. They are 1-4 against the spread since their 16-6 win over the Vikings in Week 4. They miss a good North-South runner that kept the linebackers inside the tackles. Defenses can just line up wider and it’s harder for running backs Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery to beat anyone around the edge. The Rams defense is legit and will cause QB Mitchell Trubisky and the running backs to have a bad game. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home in the late game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+4) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes returned last week and threw for 446 yards and threw for three touchdowns. Unfortunately, he was unable to get the win against the Titans and lost 35-32. Kansas City just couldn’t stop Titans RB Derrick Henry. The Chargers running game is improving and I’d even say that RB Melvin Gordon is finally in ‘football shape’. They can go at the Chiefs with both Gordon and Austin Ekeler and I think that could be the difference in this game. The Chiefs may end up with the outright win, but I think the Chargers keep it interesting due to their running game. I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 79-71-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob