I had a rough 5-8-1 record last weekend.

Pretty bad outcome with last week’s picks. Not only that, but I’ve been dealing with either carpal tunnel syndrome or an arthritic thumb, which makes it pretty darn annoying to type or even play video games (I bought NBA 2k20 recently and it is collecting dust by my Xbox One). I have to wear a dumb brace until I get it checked out further later this week.

Enough about my woes, it’s time to turn my luck around and get back on track with my NFL picks against the spread. Let’s do this!

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2019 NFL season.

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

I was high on the Chargers this preseason, but shit hit the fan early this year with RB Melvin Gordon holding out and they lost safety Derwin James to injury. They are finally playing up to their potential and they played like mad men against the Packers last week. I can’t name a single player that had a bad game against Green Bay. The Raiders are coming off a 31-24 win at home against the Lions. Lions QB Matthew Stafford threw on them, but the Lions couldn’t run the ball worth a damn. Weird stuff can happen on a short week, but I think the Chargers are playing better right now, so I’m taking Los Angeles.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+10) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

Before last week, I’d probably give Bengals QB Ryan Finley the benefit of the doubt and maybe think about picking Bengals +10. Well, last week happened, and I saw the Ravens murder the Patriots on national television. A lot of 50/50 balls went in the Ravens favor in that game, but the Patriots really weren’t close at any point after WR Julian Edelman fumbled the ball and saw CB Marlon Humphrey run it back for a touchdown. The Ravens only beat the Bengals 23-17 a few weeks ago, but the Ravens were in control the entire game. The Bengals scored a backdoor cover with a touchdown with just a minute left to go in the game. Bengals QB Andy Dalton was pretty average in the game and didn’t get any help from his running game. My guess is that QB Ryan Finley will have similar success, but I’m taking the Ravens to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+4) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

I highly doubt QB Patrick Mahomes will play on Sunday. They are increasing his workload in practice, but I think the Chiefs view this game against the Titans as a very winnable game with QB Matt Moore under center. I don’t see Titans QB Ryan Tannehill replicating his performance he had against Tampa Bay. He did not play well the following week in their 30-20 loss to Carolina. The Chiefs will look for ways to get WR Tyreek Hill the ball and he will be the key to this game. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

This game should be a shoot-out. Both quarterbacks should be able to move the ball down the field. It also looks like QB Kyler Murray will get RB David Johnson back from injury. I expect Bucs QB Jameis Winston will try to get WR Mike Evans involved a lot in this game. The Cardinals pass defense isn’t great, but they have CB Patrick Peterson back to help. They didn’t have Peterson in their earlier game against the Falcons and their secondary didn’t let WR Julio Jones kill them too much. They won that game by a point. I think the Cardinals will keep this game close and could pull off the upset win, so I’m taking the points.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Bears have been pretty damn bad this season. A lot of fingers have been pointing at QB Mitchell Trubisky and it’s justified. It’s clear that head coach Matt Nagy is trying to remedy the situation by limiting his playbook and passing attempts, but the offense has just fell flat in doing so. The Lions should be a passing machine without much talent at running back. WR Kenny Golladay has killed the Bears in the past and I expect a lot from him on Sunday. I have to take the points here.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

I went back and forth with my pick since I don’t see the Falcons as a God awful team, but as a team that stands no chance against the pass. Atlanta should have QB Matt Ryan back from injury, but he will need a 450+ yard passing game to hang with the Saints. The Falcons secondary will have a very difficult time against QB Drew Brees. I hate picking double-digit point spread covers in the NFL, but the Saints should cover this one at home.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

Browns QB Baker Mayfield is imploding right now. He’s been very bad on the field and he has lost all his charm off of it. The Bills defense is young and fast and vastly underrated. The only way I see the Browns covering this game is if they pound the ball with RB Nick Chubb. The Bills front-seven is talented enough to contend with that, but I don’t see them taking the ball out of Mayfield’s hands. I’m taking the points.

New York Giants at New York Jets (+2.5) – My pick is New York Giants

The Giants went neck-and-neck with the Cowboys on Monday, but Cowboys passing offense was too much and they made costly mistakes. Luckily, the Jets aren’t on the Cowboys level, not at all. The Giants are a decent team with a handful of playmakers. If Giants QB Daniel Jones can get the ball to WR Golden Tate and get some big gains from RB Saquon Barkley, I think they can get the cover at ‘home’ (they play in the same place).

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

I realize that the Dolphins are looking more like a professional football team these days, but they have been doing that against some bad defenses. The Colts defense is underrated and should make Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick play like he did earlier this season, very bad. The Colts should have QB Jacoby Brissett back from knee injury. Bettors are hitting the Dolphins line pretty hard and I bet this could fall to -9.5 by kickoff due to an over-reaction from their first win of the season. I’m taking the Colts to cover at home.

Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – My pick is Los Angles Rams

The Steelers will be over-matched by the Rams, who are coming off a bye. The Rams have the advantage in nearly every match-up on the field. I don’t see this game being very close. The Rams should cover in Heinz Field.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Packers not only lost last week to the Chargers 26-11, but they were dominated in that game. The Chargers just ran the ball down their throats. They were humbled in that game. It snapped a four-game winning streak. The Panthers aren’t the most balanced team with most of their offense runs through RB Christian McCaffrey. It’s hard to eliminate him from the game since he’s so multi-dimensional. Also, the Panthers defense isn’t too shabby. Yes, they were torched by the Niners two weeks ago, but they’ve been good every other week. The Packers may come out with the win at Lambeau Field, but I don’t see them covering the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

Both teams will be without one of their stars in this game. Vikings WR Adam Thielen and Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch are expected to be out for Sunday night’s game. Those are two huge blows. I expect this game to be close. The Vikings secondary will be tested by the Cowboys passing offense. I don’t see Cowboys QB Dak Prescott going off in this game. I just have that much respect for the Vikings pass defense. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins will miss Thielen, but I think he still have enough weapons to keep this game close, so I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Niners are one of the best teams in the NFC, but the Seahawks are right there with them. The public is on to the Niners this year, so I expect some inflated point spreads for them in the near future. The Niners may still win this game, but Seattle has so many redzone targets. They are deadly down there and will score points nearly every time they are close to the endzone. The Niners defense is legit, but the Seahawks will keep this one close…so i’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 76-63-1

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob