I went 12-13 against the spread with my college football picks last week.
I really need to have back-to-back solid weeks with my college football picks. I’ll have a great week that is followed by one that’s around .500. I feel pretty good about my picks this week and to get back on track.
There are a handful of marquee games this weekend. Georgia at Florida might be the most relevant in the big picture when it comes to the College Football Playoff. I would even say that SMU at Memphis could even be seen as being more relevant as SMU is still undefeated this late into the year.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 10 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (November 2nd, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Michigan at Maryland (+21) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has made me eat my words. I was right about them early this season, but last week’s beating of Notre Dame really made me change my mind. Their running game is something to fear. Unfortunately for Maryland, the Terrapins are pretty bad against the run. They lost to Minnesota 52-10 last week and the Golden Gophers gained 321 yards on the ground. Michigan should cover against Maryland this week.
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (-17.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
Last week’s 45-14 loss at Michigan is a huge eye-opener for Notre Dame. They were ran on all game and they just couldn’t stop Michigan’s running backs. This isn’t exactly a new issue as they also had trouble against Georgia in their loss earlier this season. The Hokies are on a three-game winning streak and they have a pretty darn good running game. They may not be as good as Notre Dame in many other areas, but I think they are good enough on the ground to be within the point spread on Saturday, so I’m taking the points.
Georgia at Florida (+6.5) – My pick is Florida Gators
Georgia is one of the best teams in college football. They aren’t among the top-of-the-rankings due to an overtime loss against South Carolina two weeks ago. They rebounded and shutout Kentucky 21-0 the following week. Florida has really got more than they bargained for from QB Kyle Trask. He seems to be getting better every week. Their only loss was against LSU and their defense failed them in that contest. If Florida’s defense shows up, I think they can keep this game close, so I’m taking the points in the Swamp.
Miami (FL) at Florida State (-3) – My pick is Florida State Seminoles
Neither team has had a season that will go down in the annals of either team’s storied histories. They have both been inconsistent and have been difficult to handicap. One thing Florida State have going for them is that they play much better at home than they do on the road. The Seminoles have used a two-quarterback system in recent weeks with James Blackman and Alex Hornibrook coming in for various drives. Both quarterbacks have had success, but they both have their limits. The Hurricanes saw QB N’Kosi Perry go down with a shoulder injury. Freshman QB Jarren Williams finished the game and secured the win. Williams had some success playing early this season, but he has struggled in recent weeks. It appears that Williams will start against the Seminoles…and that isn’t a good thing in my eyes. I’ll take Florida State to cover at home.
Rutgers at Illinois (-20) – My pick is Illinois Fighting Illini
Rutgers may have beaten Liberty by 20 last week, but don’t let that sway your betting decision. They are getting their cheeks clapped in Champaign, Illinois on Saturday. Illinois has played well the last three weeks and they are coming off a 24-6 win at Purdue. Illinois is a run-first team and Rutgers don’t do that well (along with many other things). I’m taking Illinois to cover at home.
Utah at Washington (+3.5) – My pick is Utah Utes
The last time Washington faced a good defense, they lost 23-13 at Stanford. They have mostly played against soft defenses this year. Utah has the best defense in the Pac 12 and if they beat Washington, they are one step closer to a Pac-12 Championship game. I think you are getting a bargain with this point spread since I think they will win by more than a touchdown on Saturday.
Ole Miss at Auburn (-19.5) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels
Auburn is coming off a 23-20 loss to LSU. I thought LSU would come out with the win, but it was closer than I expected. I think LSU is one of the best teams in the country and a field goal loss isn’t anything to hang your head about. That being said, favorites in SEC conference play don’t have a great record against the spread. Bottom tier SEC teams like Ole Miss tend to have a good record against the spread at the end of the year. The public will bet this up and it’s already a tad bloated. Ole Miss is good enough to hang with the Tigers and it will be within the points spread, so I’m taking the points.
Northwestern at Indiana (-11.5) – My pick is Northwestern Wildcats
The last time Indiana beat Northwestern outright was in 2008. The Wildcats are having a down year and this appears to be the year the Hoosiers get a win against them. That being said, this point spread is awfully big. Indiana are on a three-game winning streak, but they faced three of the worst teams in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are a good team and will likely get the win at home, but I don’t see that win being more than ten points, so I’ll take the points in this contest.
Oregon at USC (+4.5) – My pick is Oregon Ducks
Oregon QB Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He was smart to withdraw his name from last year’s draft because he should be one of the top three picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. USC has dealt with a lot of injuries this month and will be without a lot of role players in this game. Oregon won’t run away with this contest and the final score could be close to the point spread, but I’ll take Oregon to cover this week.
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (+1.5) – My pick is Northern Illinois Huskies
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. Central Michigan gained some betting caché by beating bad MAC teams, but they were smoked 43-20 by Buffalo last week. They are good enough to beat MAC teams like Bowling Green, but they will have trouble against teams like Northern Illinois. The Huskies have beaten some of the better MAC teams and faced tough competition early this year by facing Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt all away from home to start the year. I think the Huskies will be a player in the MAC this year and cover at Central Michigan.
QUICK HITS
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-15) – My pick is Appalachian State
Old Dominion at Florida International (-17) – My pick is FIU
Buffalo at Eastern Michigan (+1) – My pick is Buffalo
Akron at Bowling Green (-6) – My pick is Bowling Green
Army at Air Force (-15.5) – My pick is Army
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte (+3) – My pick is Middle Tennessee
UTEP at North Texas (-23) – My pick is UTEP
Kansas State at Kansas (+6) – My pick is Kansas State
Tulsa at Tulane (-10.5) – My pick is Tulane
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky (-1.5) – My pick is FAU
BONUS PICKS!
Mississippi State at Arkansas (+7.5) – My pick is Mississippi State
Oregon State at Arizona (-5.5) – My pick is Oregon State
Texas State at UL Lafayette (-22.5) – My pick is UL Lafayette
UAB at Tennessee (-12) – My pick is UAB
SMU at Memphis (-6) – My pick is SMU
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 120-101-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.