I went 14-11 against the spread with my college football picks last week.
We are still waiting on that ‘Bizarro Betting Weekend’ we seem to get every year. It’s usually when the leaves start to change and we get a ton of upsets. Some of those upsets can be blamed on trap games or letdowns, but it hasn’t happened yet. Could it be this weekend?
There are a few big marquee games this weekend. Ohio State vs Wisconsin, Notre Dame vs Michigan and Auburn vs LSU are the three that I’ll definitely be watching on Saturday.
Which games will you be watching on Saturday?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 9 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (October 26th, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Wisconsin at Ohio State (-14.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is coming off a ‘trap game’ loss to Illinois. There’s no other way to describe it other than they were caught looking past Illinois. You can’t blame Wisconsin really because Ohio State is one of the top three teams in the country. That being said, the Badgers play a very physical style of football on both sides of the ball. The weather is getting colder and it seems like every year Wisconsin and Ohio State has a close game. Wisconsin should probably be ten-point underdogs, at most, but due to last week’s loss, the point spread is a little skewed. They know each other too well and it should be a close game, so I’m taking the points.
Iowa at Northwestern (+10) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa had a rough stretch of games and looked to bounce-back from losses to Michigan and Penn State. They beat Purdue last week, but it was a close game. Northwestern is rebuilding on offense, but they do have some talent on defense. The Wildcats are coming off a 52-3 loss at home against Ohio State. Iowa looked great early this season and they should look great again against Northwestern. I’m taking Iowa to cover in Evanston.
Texas at TCU (+1.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
Texas fought a tough battle in their 34-27 loss against Oklahoma in mid-October, but then followed that with a nail-biter win against Big 12 basement-dweller Kansas. Their run defense is one of the reasons why they nearly lost to the Jayhawks. TCU doesn’t have a #1 running back, but they have a trio of runners that can do damage (two running backs and their quarterback). This game will be close, but Texas has the edge in the passing game with QB Sam Ehlinger. They can put the team on his back and he has the skill to get the win, so I’m taking Texas to cover on the road.
Auburn at LSU (-10.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
Auburn is the tenth-ranked team in the country and their only loss was against Florida. Auburn QB Bo Nix turned the ball over too much in that game and the Tigers couldn’t come back from that. LSU is the third-ranked team and are undefeated on the year. LSU QB Joe Burrow went from a possible draft prospect to people looking at him as an early first-round selection. The only way Auburn can keep this game close is if they can force Burrow to turnover the ball. I think there’s much better odds of Nix doing that than Burrow. LSU’s running game might even be the key to this game as they can just eat the clock if they get an early lead. I’m taking LSU to cover at home.
Penn State at Michigan State (+6.5) – My pick is Penn State Nittany Lions
If Penn State can just run the ball, they should cover this game in East Lansing. The Spartans haven’t been able to stop the run all year, so I see this game as an easy cover for the Nittany Lions.
Indiana at Nebraska (-2.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
It appears that I’m going heavy on Big Ten games this week. I’ve had a lot of success in the conference this year, so I’m hitting it hard again. Indiana has a good running game and an odd offensive non-huddle scheme. It keeps the defense on the field and they can’t rotate players in. The Cornhuskers have been an average Big Ten team this season and they lose when they can’t stop the run. The Hoosiers are a bad opponent for Nebraska. I’m taking the points.
Arkansas at Alabama (-32) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama lost QB Tua Tagovailoa for awhile due to a nasty high-ankle sprain. Alabama is stacked with talent, so QB Mac Jones is a capable quarterback. The thing I don’t like about Alabama is that they lost a ton of talent to the NFL last year. The defense isn’t at the same level as many of Nick Saban’s Alabama teams. The Crimson Tide will win this game, but I think they will be a few points shy of a cover, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Michigan (+1) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Michigan is in the same boat as Alabama, as they lost a lot of talent to the NFL Draft. The Wolverines don’t have the same level of defense that can bail out a somewhat average offense. It saw them lose games against Wisconsin and Penn State. Notre Dame is coming off a close win at USC and only have one loss on the year. As long as Notre Dame QB Ian Book can move the ball and get into the red zone, I think the Irish should cover and win at the Big House.
California at Utah (-21.5) – My pick is California Golden Bears
Utah has a prolific offense, but California has one of the better defenses in the offense-first Pac 12 conference. I don’t get why this point spread is this bloated as Cal has only been beaten by double-digits once (ten points). Utah is very good, but I have to go with Cal’s defense here and take the points.
Ohio at Ball State (-2.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. Ball State is playing like one of the best teams in the MAC. They started the year off 1-3, but have now won three-straight games. Ball State QB Drew Plitt is playing great and he is being helped by a punishing running game. Ohio isn’t living up to their preseason ranking and their defense has hurt them greatly. I think the Cardinals handle business and will run on Ohio and cover at home.
QUICK HITS
Liberty at Rutgers (+7.5) – My pick is Liberty
Appalachian State at South Alabama (+26) – My pick is App State
San Jose State at Army (-9.5) – My pick is Army
Western Kentucky at Marshall (-5) – My pick is Western Kentucky
Tulane at Navy (-3.5) – My pick is Navy
FIU at Middle Tennessee (+2) – My pick is FIU
Maryland at Minnesota (-16.5) – My pick is Minnesota
Eastern Michigan at Toledo (-3.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan at Buffalo (-2.5) – My pick is Central Michigan
South Florida at East Carolina (+2) – My pick is South Florida
BONUS PICKS!
SMU at Houston (+14) – My pick is SMU
Nevada at Wyoming (-14) – My pick is Wyoming
Troy at Georgia State (-1.5) – My pick is Georgia State
Utah State at Air Force (-3.5) – My pick is Air Force
Washington State at Oregon (-14) – My pick is Oregon
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 108-88-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.