I finished 7-8 against the spread with my picks last week.

The Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders and the Buffalo Bills are on byes this week, which means there are two less games to bet on. 

We are down to only two unbeaten teams this season…and four teams that have yet to win a game. Will any of these teams get rid of the zero in their records this week?

The Redskins and Dolphins face off this week in a game between two teams still looking for their first win on the year. Which team will end their drought on Sunday?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2019 NFL season.

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-16.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

As much as I hate betting a 16.5-point cover on a Thursday night game, I have zero confidence that Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones will be able to move the ball against the Patriots. Bill Belichick is drooling at the thought of gameplanning to stop the young quarterback. I have to take the Pats on Thursday.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game is in London, England. I went back and forth with this pick. Every once in awhile a game just stops me in my tracks and I have to do a little extra research. The reason I am picking the Bucs is because of their run defense. The reason they’ve lost in the past is either due to QB Jameis Winston throwing interceptions or because of their pass defense. The Panthers offense works best when they can run with RB Christian McCaffrey. He wasn’t super effective in their first match-up this season when the Bucs won 20-14. I am taking the points in this game.

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming off a solid 31-24 win at home against the Bucs. QB Teddy Bridgewater bounced back from a poor game against the Cowboys and threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns. The Jaguars lost to the Panthers last week 34-27. QB Gardnew Minshew had a good game with 374 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions. RB Leonard Fournette couldn’t match his numbers from the previous game, but he still rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars defense is good, but it looks like they could be without CB Jalen Ramsey again. They probably would have won against the Panthers if Ramsey played, he’s that much of a game changer. I’m going with the Saints in this game. The Jaguars have looked good without QB Nick Foles, but if you look at the level of talent they are facing, it’s below average. The Saints are a playoff caliber team and the Jags haven’t played well against good teams.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

Houston played their best game of the season. They beat the Falcons 53-32 and QB Deshaun Watson regained some of that magic with WR Will Fuller. It helped that the Falcons secondary has not played well all season. They were getting burned deep by Fuller all game. The Chiefs are coming off their first loss. The Colts just ran the ball down the Chiefs throats and on defense, they pressured and sacked QB Patrick Mahomes on multiple occasions. It looks like the Chiefs could get WR Tyreek Hill back from a shoulder injury. We should know more later in the week. The Chiefs will bounce back and cover at home against the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (+1.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

After watching the Browns/Niners game on Monday night, I’m officially off the Browns bandwagon. QB Baker Mayfield was limited in the game due to the Niners milking the clock with an effective running game. When Mayfield did have the ball, he forced throws and threw two picks with no touchdowns. The Seahawks could duplicate the Niners gameplan with RBs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. The Browns could look to simplify the offense a bit and focus on getting RB Nick Chubb the ball more. I’m still taking the Seahawks to cover, who have played well on the road this seaosn.

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The point spreads have really been on the money this week. I could see a 50/50 split with the bets on this line. The Vikings finally got their first good game of the season out of QB Kirk Cousins last week against the Giants. The entire offense was clicking and RB Dalvin Cook even racked up 100+ yards. The Eagles are also coming off a dominant win. They ran all over the Jets the way to a 31-6 win. They have looked pretty darn good the last two weeks, but they are still a flawed team. QB Carson Wentz just doesn’t look right and isn’t the same quarterback he was before the injury last season. I don’t think he’s still dealing with the injury, but it could just be some sort of ‘rust’ that he needs to shake off. He will have issues with the Vikings secondary, but I do expect the running game to bail him out. It could be close to the spread, but I’m taking the Vikings to cover.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-12) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals come into this game winless on the year (2-3 ATS). They’ve been competitive in three games and probably should be at least 2-3 right now. They aren’t as bad as their record and could give the Ravens a game. After lighting the world on fire in Week 1 & 2, QB Lamar Jackson has mostly been average. He has lost the accuracy he had early this season and is turning the ball over. He is a much better quarterback when he can get RB Mark Ingram going on the ground. I do think the Ravens should win this game, but the point spread is about a field goal too high, so I’m taking the points.

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

I’m going out on a limb with my pick. They’ve had a week to get their shit straight while on bye and the Redskins are in shambles after firing their head coach on Monday morning. It’s unknown if QB Colt McCoy or rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will be the starter for this game. It could also be QB Case Keenum, but it’s unknown if his foot injury will keep him out of the running. This is probably Miami’s best chance to get a win and I see them right on par with the Redskins right now. Even though I’m sure the Dolphins top brass would prefer to lose to help secure the #1 pick, I have to take the points.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

This could be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. Both teams struggle with their pass defense and are probably in the bottom-five in the league in that category and secondary talent. I don’t expect a lot of punting to happen. It’s hard to handicap a game like this because a single interception could swing this game in their favor. If Cardinals QB Kyler Murray can avoid turnovers, I think they have a shot in this game, so I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Niners come in this game as one of only two unbeaten teams in the NFL. They were dominant in their last game against the Browns. They just rode their running backs and chewed the clock up. They won’t be able to do that against Aaron Donald. The Rams defensive line is one of the best in the league, so Niners QB Jimmy Garappolo will need to use his arm to win this game. I haven’t been a fan of Jimmy G and think he’s overrated. I don’t see the Niners keeping this one close, so I’m taking the Rams. 

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (+7) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Jets will have QB Sam Darnold back from his bout of mono. I know people who have had mono and you waste away. There’s no way Darnold has all his throwing power back. You can’t workout when you have mono and it zaps all your energy. The Cowboys are coming off back-to-back losses, but they were able to move the ball a little better last week. The Jets have allowed some big passing games from opposing quarterbacks this season. This could be the right opponent for QB Dak Prescott to get this team back on track. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos notched their first win of the season last week (2-3 ATS). They went back to a gameplan that worked early this season, run the damn ball. They utilized RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman quite well. If you can be effective running the ball 30 times a game, QB Joe Flacco is the perfect quarterback for your team. The Titans have only lost games when they weren’t able to out-run the other team. The Colts had the perfect gameplan in their 19-17 win early this season. They just hitched their wagons to the running backs and moved on down the field. I see the Broncos using the same plan. I’m taking the Broncos to cover the ball.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers defense hasn’t quite been the same without safety Derwin James. They have some playmakers on that side of the ball, but he was a Swiss Army knife for the Chargers. RB Melvin Gordon suited up for the first time this year last week, but he was largely ineffective. I expect more work for him this week, but the Steelers are most vulnerable in their secondary. I expect QB Philip Rivers to have one of his best games of the year. The Steelers will most likely start their third-string quarterback. I’m taking the Chargers at home.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

Packers RB Aaron Jones was a touchdown machine last week. He found the endzone four times in their win over the Dallas Cowboys. If he can move the ball on the ground, QB Aaron Rodgers becomes lethal. The Lions are coming off their bye week. They are 2-2-1 on the season (4-1 ATS), but could be without WR Danny Amendola (chest) and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson (concussion). Lions QB Matthew Stafford is best when he had possession-receiving targets. He will struggle if either of those guys miss this game. It looks like that is most likely. I expect RB Aaron Jones will have another strong game against a below average run defense, so I’m taking the Packers to cover.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 41-37-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob