I finished 8-7 against the spread with my picks last week.

The Miami Dolphins are on bye week, but we still have our fair share of double-digit point spreads this week. 

The Browns finally lived up to the hype last week when they beat the Ravens 40-25. They face the Niners on Monday Night and are actually 3.5-point underdogs. Can the Browns score an underdog win in the Bay Area?

Will any backup quarterbacks lead their teams to a cover this week?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are coming off a loss to the Buccaneers in a shootout. QB Jared Goff had one of his best yardage totals of his career, but he gave up three poorly-timed interceptions. They never really got the running game going because they were just trying to keep up with the Bucs. I expect they will try to slow things down and run the ball on Thursday night. I expect a lot of carries from both running backs Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown. The Seahawks will have to grind with them. Both teams will look sloppy (since its Thursday), so the Rams will keep this one close if they eat up the clock. I’m taking the points.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+5.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

I don’t expect the Giants to score much on Sunday. The decked is stacked against them on offense. The Vikings defense should smother whatever the Giants throws at them. The only reason this point spread isn’t higher is due to Minnesota’s trouble at quarterback. QB Kirk Cousins has been horrible, but I could see them going back to just feeding RB Dalvin Cook for the easy win. I don’t see the Giants being able score more than a couple field goals against the Vikings. I’m taking Minnesota to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+15) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Redskins are on the doorsteps of firing head coach Jay Gruden. On top of that, just about every football analyst ripped him apart for throwing rookie QB Dwayne Haskins to the wolves last game. He did not do the rookie quarterback any favors. The Redskins are currently 0-4 and are getting beaten worse in every consecutive game. The Patriots looked bad last game against a very underrated, young, fast Bills defense. New England will look much better this week and cover on the road.

Chicago Bears vs Oakland Raiders (+5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

This is a coinflip game. Weird shit happens in London. Teams get off the plane and become very unpredictable. QB Mitchell Trubisky has a separated shoulder and will be out for a bit, so it’s Chase Daniel’s team right now. He has shown to be very capable and will have a very good defense to lean on. I also assume LB Khalil Mack will play out of his mind against his former team. The Raiders will have issues against the Bears. I’m taking Bears to cover in London.

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-13) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Jets are still without QB Sam Darnold (mono) and will start QB Luke Falk. He wasn’t impressive in his last start against the Patriots. They did have the bye week to sort some things out, but they are still a very limited team. The Eagles needed a last-second interception to secure a win against the Packers last week, but I was really impressed with their play. I was hoping this line would be around -10, but I still think the Eagles will cover this lofty point spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have been in shootouts the last two weeks. They needed a late pick-six against the Rams to secure their win last week. QB Jameis Winston has had two very good games in a row. I can’t recall the last time that has happened in his career. Many are pointing to Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich’s play-calling for his turnaround. If they can continue getting the ball to wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, I don’t think the Saints can keep up on the scoreboard. The Saints offense hasn’t look very good with QB Teddy Bridgewater in for the injured Drew Brees. I have to take the points in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville made things interesting last week and needed nearly 200 yards rushing (in the second-half) from RB Leonard Fournette to get the win. They also have a quarterback who isn’t going to make dumb mistakes, which former QB Blake Bortles seemed to do nearly every game. Carolina has a backup at QB as well. QB Cam Newton is still nursing a foot injury and Kyle Allen will be starting. Allen padded his stats in the game against the Cardinals in Week 3, but faced a solid pass defense last week against the Texans. He didn’t necessarily struggle, but he needed a lot from RB Christian McCaffrey to secure the 16-10 win. McCaffrey rushed the ball 27 times for 93 yards and caught ten passes for an additional 86 receiving yards. The Jaguars defense will choke off McCaffrey and make Allen beat them with his other weapons. I don’t see him having much success. I’m taking the points.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens started off the year with two dominant wins, but are now on a two-game losing streak. They faced two talented teams (Chiefs and Browns) and QB Lamar Jackson fell back down to Earth. He’s still a crazy talented quarterback that can make things happen with his arms and feet. The Steelers got their first win of the season in a 27-3 win at home versus the Bengals. Pittsburgh seemed to simplify the offense for QB Mason Rudolph. He didn’t make any huge deep passes and used the short passing game to move the ball down the field. They will need to expand this plan if they hope to defeat the Ravens. These teams know each other very well, but both are very different than the ones that faced each other last year. I expect Jackson will rely on RB Mark Ingram a lot this game and make smarter throws against a fairly average Pittsburgh secondary. I’m taking the Ravens to cover in Pittsburgh. 

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have struggled with their pass defense with CB Patrick Peterson serving his six-game suspension. Their offensive line is also a turnstile and rookie QB Kyler Murray is pressured or sacked in too many plays. That being said, the Bengals may still struggle on Sunday. Cincinnati suffered another injury to their wide receiving corps with WR John Ross injuring his shoulder last week. Also, the Bengals have their own offensive line issues. Arizona’s pass rushing duo of Terrell Suggs and Chandler Jones could feast on Bengals QB Andy Dalton. The Bengals may come out of this game with the win, but it will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

Neither team has played their best of late. The Falcons are coming off a beating from the Titans and the Texans lost a boring 16-10 game to the Panthers. Vegas really thinks the public has lost faith in the Falcons. If they get their running game going, the Falcons aren’t a bad team. The Texans are a very beatable team for the Falcons as Houston is just very inconsistent. They have their own issues in the running game. I just don’t think the Texans are the better team here, so I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills defense made Patriots QB Tom Brady look old. The Patriots still beat the Bills last week, but the Bills came out of that game looking like a possible playoff-level team. Bills QB Josh Allen had to leave the game due to a concussion. He’s still in concussion-protocol, so there’s always a chance he could miss the game. I like the Bills defense against Titans QB Marcus Mariota. They could force a few timely mistakes to help out the Bills somewhat average offense. This game will be close and the Bills have a shot to score an upset, so I’m taking the points.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers destroyed the Dolphins last week and RB Melvin Gordon is expected to suit up after holding out the first four games. QB Philip Rivers will fare well with both Gordon and Austin Ekeler in the backfield. I’m not a huge fan of the Broncos right now. They lost LB Bradley Chubb for the season (torn ACL) and teams will now double-team LB Von Miller. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

Are the Cowboys a playoff-caliber team? They faced bad teams through the first three games, but Dallas looked pretty bad against the Saints last week. I still think they are one of the better teams in the NFC. RB Ezekiel Elliott should have a good game this week as the Packers have a poor run defense. The Packers will also be without WR Davante Adams, who suffered a toe injury last week. Dallas should redeem themselves this week and cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-11) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Chiefs will most likely win this game versus the Colts, but Vegas isn’t giving Indy much love. They lost last week to the Raiders, but they were without WR T.Y. Hilton and LB Darius Leonard. They should have Hilton back, but the status of Leonard (concussion) is unknown. The Chiefs are coming off a 34-30 win against the Lions. Kansas City needed a fourth-quarter comeback to get the win. This game will be closer than the 11 point spread and I’m taking the points.

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Niners are coming off their bye week. Hopefully they fixed their turnover issue on their off-week. They should have beaten the Steelers in Week 3 by a few touchdowns, but only beat them by four points thanks to fumbles. The Browns smoked the Ravens last week and are now 2-2. Browns QB Baker Mayfield looked much better and didn’t make any dumb mistakes. He was helped by a huge game from RB Nick Chubb. Cleveland isn’t getting much love from Vegas with this line and I’m fine with it. I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 34-29-0

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob