I finished 10-6 against the spread with my picks last week.

I’m really liking some of the nail biting fourth quarters this season. There have been so many point spreads covered late in games. It just didn’t happen much last year. 

There were two 20+ point spreads last week (only one covered), but there aren’t any near that level this week. The Dolphins are huge underdogs (again), but they are only sixteen-point underdogs against the Chargers this week.

Can rookie quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Gardner Minshew lead upsets this weekend?

Was Daniel Jones just a one-week wonder?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers secondary has is one of the most improved in the entire National Football League. They are forcing turnovers and opposing quarterbacks are being limited in every offensive category. The Eagles will need to run the ball to make this a close game. They have a group of running backs, but I can’t say any have had much success this year. The Eagles have also had some rough first-halves of games. They have needed huge second-halves to win or make it close. The Packers speed at secondary should make am Eagles second-half comeback more difficult, so I’ll take the Packers to cover.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been underwhelming this year…more specifically, QB Baker Mayfield has been underwhelming this year. Through the first three games, he has only thrown for 805 yards with three passing touchdowns and five interceptions. He also has a QBR of 40.4, which is 21st in the NFL. The Ravens have allowed more passing yards than many expected this season. I’m not counting their first game against the Dolphins, but against the Cardinals and Chiefs, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes both were throwing darts. The Ravens offense has been multi-dimensional so far this season. QB Lamar Jackson finally came back to Earth last week and was back to his usual inaccurate self. Teams will start to exploit Jackson’s arm, but he will still smoke teams a few times a game with his legs and arm. This game will be closer than expected and I’m taking Baker to have a bounce-back game and give me the points.

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

Panthers QB Kyle Allen started for banged up Cam Newton. Allen had better numbers than Newton has had in years with four passing touchdowns. They also allowed RB Christian McCaffrey to run the ball a lot, which didn’t happen in their first two games. The Texans have needed QB Deshaun Watson to move the ball for them on offense. They are getting very little from their running game. If the Panthers force the Texans to be one-dimensional, I think Carolina should make this close, and possibly win this game…so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+16) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

This one could be pretty close to the point spread. The Dolphins weren’t bad in the first-half against the Cowboys, but Dallas dominated them and covered a huge point spread. The Cowboys actually relied a lot on their running game, which was surprising. They still passed it in the red zone, but the Cowboys had two running backs with 100+ rushing yards. The Chargers have a couple of nice running backs in their backfield and could look to duplicate the Cowboys success. I hate that this is a huge travel game for the Chargers, but I think the Dolphins ineptitude should allow the Chargers to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Bills are a lot better than they probably should be, thanks to their excellent recent draft picks. They also signed some veteran wide receivers to help QB Josh Allen, who had a big arm, but still very inaccurate. The Patriots failed to cover their huge point spread against the Jets last week, but are still good enough to cover a touchdown point spread in Buffalo. The Bills are probably still a year away from being competitive against the Patriots.

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

Neither of these teams have impressed me much this season. The Titans shocked everyone with a huge blowout of the Browns in Week 1, but have shit the bed the last two weeks against the Colts and Jaguars. The Titans were hoping that QB Marcus Mariota would do something to basically force them to sign him to a contract extension, but he has been pretty average. The Falcons should probably be 3-0, but Matt Ryan threw way too many picks early this season and have made games they should win easily into losses or close wins. This game should be near the point spread, but I think the Falcons passing offense took less risks last game and sets themselves up better for a win against the Titans…so I’m taking Tennessee to cover at home.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Raiders have been pretty bad since beating the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 1. QB Derek Carr hasn’t had much help as rookie RB Josh Jacobs has been inconsistent. Don’t get me wrong, Jacobs has looked impressive at times, but his offensive line hasn’t done him any favors. Carr has also focused almost solely on TE Darren Waller the last couple games. If Waller isn’t open, the Raiders aren’t moving the ball much. The Colts have been underrated this season and are finally getting some respect from Vegas. Indy is good enough to cover games when the point spread is less than a touchdown, but seven points might be their limit. They are starting to get banged up with WR T.Y. Hilton and LB Darius Leonard questionable this week. I still think they are going to cover at home against the below average Raiders.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3) – My pick is New York Giants

Teams will be ready for Giants QB Daniel Jones now that they have some regular season game film. They will be without RB Saquon Barkley, but the Redskins are pretty damn bad. The Giants aren’t expected to be a playoff team or anything, but a field goal point spread at home against the Redskins? I think that’s completely doable for the G-Men.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (+6.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are 3-0 against the spread so far this year. QB Patrick Mahomes is back to dominating secondaries and have been just as good as last year. The addition of RB LeSean McCoy was a godsend and they were very lucky for him to fall into their laps. The Lions are 2-0-1 on the year and 2-1 against the spread. QB Matthew Stafford is a pretty good quarterback when he has dependable receivers. They should probably be 3-0, but they allowed Arizona to comeback late in the fourth quarter and overtime was a disaster for both teams. I could see where people would want to pick the Lions here, but I am playing the hot hand and taking the Chiefs to cover in Detroit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-10) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 3-0 on the year, but haven’t been dominate like they were last year. They have faced solid competition and this might be their first ‘gimme game’ of the season. The Bucs might be the third-worst team in the NFL, behind the Dolphins and Jets. I don’t like them travelling to the West Coast and facing such a good Rams team, so I’ll take the Rams to cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks are coming off a six-point loss at home to the Drew Brees-less Saints. Seattle is 2-1 on the year, but 1-2 against the spread. The secondary has allowed quarterbacks like Andy Dalton to have sold games. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has been a bit inaccurate this year, but he’s learning a new offensive system and he’s facing much better talent. He was dinking and diming his receivers last game, but did have more success scrambling. The Cardinals were smoked, but I’m calling for an upset this week. Arizona is going to put pressure on Seattle QB Russell Wilson and making this game close.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Vikings have needed their defense and their running game to carry their team. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has been beyond garbage, but Minnesota has been able to mostly flourish despite very little from the passing game. The Bears haven’t gotten much from their quarterback either, but QB Mitchell Trubisky had a solid game against the Redskins last week. This should be a defensive battle and could be a lot of field goals. This game favors the home team and I’m a fan of Bears RB David Montgomery, who is starting to play more for the Bears. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are coming off a win on Thursday night against the Titans. It was a little of a coming out party for rookie QB Gardner Minshew. My guess is this line is a flipped due to many thinking that Jacksonville will trade CB Jalen Ramsey before Sunday…but I don’t think Ramsey will be traded this season. The Broncos have needed their running game to be competitive this year. They have some talented backs, but the Jaguars defense should step up and force some mistakes from QB Joe Flacco. I’m taking the points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Saints are coming off a win in Seattle last week. Some expected New Orleans would start QB Taysom Hill, but they stuck with Teddy Bridgewater. They have enough weapons that they should be able to win most of their games while QB Drew Brees is recovering. The Cowboys come into this game 3-0 and have covered every game so far. They are having success in every facet of the game. They are rolling and should be able to beat the Saints without Brees. It’s not going to be a blowout, but the should win by a field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers looked pretty bad without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Second-year QB Mason Rudolph didn’t appear to have much chemistry with his receivers and RB James Connor couldn’t get much going on the ground. Rudolph should get better with each week as he gains confidence and experience with the first team offense. Both teams are 0-3 on the year, but the Bengals have been within shooting distance in two games. Vegas is really down on the Steelers right now, but they are creeping into ‘underrated’ territory since they may have scared off some bettors with their huge point spread defeats. I’m taking Pittsburgh to cover and right the ship on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 26-22-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob