I finished 8-8 against the spread with my picks last week.

The slew of quarterback injuries have affected the point spreads quite a bit. On top of that, there’s a huge point spread in every Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots games. There are actually two point spreads this week greater than 21 points. That usually doesn’t happen until like Week 16, at the earliest.

Can the Patriots and Cowboys both cover a massive 21+ point spreads this week?

Can rookie quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew lead their teams to covers in Week 3?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans will probably be a .500 team by year’s end, but they lack the overall playmakers that the Jaguars have on both sides of the ball. I know they have some drama with CB Jalen Ramsey wanting to be traded and they have QB Gardner Minshew starting for the injured QB Nick Foles…but I like them on a short week at home. The Jags have enough playmakers on defense to really cause fits for Titans QB Marcus Mariota. I’m taking the Jags to cover.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas is doing the bettors dirty with this line. They want you to pick the Ravens, but Baltimore isn’t going to live up to the hype this week. The Ravens smoked the garbage Dolphins and only beat the Cardinals by six points last week. The Chiefs are as advertised and should force Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to pass. I know he has a crazy passing game against the Dolphins in Week 1, but he’ll never match those numbers again. The Ravens secondary isn’t great this year and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes should torch them for a cover.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-22.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Jets will start their third-string quarterback against the Patriots. QB Luke Falk was the quarterback at Washington State before Gardner Minshew’s mustache arrived in town. He’s a large quarterback, but was largely underwhelming and inconsistent. The Patriots have smoked both opponents so far and both were better than the Jets, so I have to take the Patriots to cover this large spread at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

It’s been awhile since I chose the Bills to cover as a favorite. I like their young defensive playmakers and they have enough veteran receivers to help make QB Josh Allen appear a little more accurate due to their experienced route running. The Bengals are coming off a spanking against the Niners. San Francisco ran all over them and hopefully Bills rookie RB Devin Singletary will have a healthy hamstring in time to suit up. I have to take the Bills to cover at home.

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders

If the Vikings had a semi-competent quarterback, I’d take them to cover this spread all day…but Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is hot garbage right now. I’m not a fan of Raiders QB Derek Carr either, but when you add in his tight ends and RB Josh Jacobs, their offense is more well-rounded and harder to defend. The Vikings may win this game outright, but I have to take the points.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers offense haven’t had an easy time this season. They started off the season against two top-notch defenses and the Broncos is by far the easiest opponent they’ve faced. QB Aaron Rodgers will have his first solid fantasy game of the year. Denver hasn’t showed me anything this year to give me confidence in a Broncos pick, so I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions offense is much better with their offseason additions of TE T.J. Hockenson, TE Jesse James and WR Danny Amendola. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has looked like his younger self and even though he isn’t getting a ton of help on the ground, he’s having way more success than last year. The Eagles struggled at times in both of their games this year. They barely squeaked out a win against the Redskins and lost late against the Falcons last week. This year’s Eagles team isn’t as good as the last two squads. They are a bit overrated and shouldn’t be favored by this much, so I’m taking the points.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-2) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Falcons are 1-1 and needed late-game heroics to beat the Eagles last week. The one issues I have with them is that QB Matt Ryan has been a turnover machine this year. As long as the Colts double-team Julio Jones and get a little pressure on Ryan, I think they will force a couple turnovers. The Colts are a bit underrated and aren’t super flashy, but they’ve been doing enough to be 2-0 ATS. QB Jacoby Brissett can extend plays with his legs and the running game is better overall right now. As long as Adam Vinatieri can hit his kicks, I think the Colts will cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-21.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Dolphins are the perfect opponent for QB Dak Prescott and WR Amari Cooper right now. They both want new contracts and they are about to pad their stats against Miami. The extra half-point is a little daunting, but the Dolphins have already quit on everyone and just want out of town.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Panthers could be without QB Cam Newton due to a foot injury. His status is up in the air and backup QB Kyle Allen could start at Arizona on Sunday. The Panthers started the year off with a close loss to the Rams, but really shit the bed on Thursday’s 20-14 loss at home to the Bucs. The Cardinals offense took another step last week, but couldn’t stop Ravens QB Lamar Jackson on the ground. Arizona won’t have to worry about the Panthers QB scrambling, especially if Cam plays on an injured foot. The Cardinals can pressure the quarterback and can force mistakes. I think the Cardinals will keep this one close at home, so I’ll take the points.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) – My pick is New York Giants

I’m not a huge fan of Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones, but sometimes a quarterback change can light a fire under an entire team. The Bucs aren’t anything special and should be 0-2, but the Panthers just gave the game away. The Bucs may win this game outright, but I don’t have faith in them winning by a touchdown, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans squeezed out a one-point win against the Jaguars last week thanks to a failed Jaguars two-point conversation late in the fourth quarter. They didn’t look great for most of the game, but the Jaguars played the receivers tight all game. The Chargers secondary is pretty weak with Derwin James injured, so the Texans will be able to move the ball down the field much better this week. I’m taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Saints will be without QB Drew Brees for most of the season. QB Teddy Bridgewater took over for Brees last game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see QB Taysom Hill take some snaps this week. I still think the Seahawks are too talented for a Brees-less Saints team. QB Russell Wilson will take control of the clock and cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Niners are coming off a pretty lopsided win against the Bengals last week. San Francisco’s running game was potent and QB Jimmy Garoppolo is pretty deadly when he has a good running game behind him. The Steelers lost Big Ben for the season and will start QB Mason Rudolph this week. He was a talented quarterback at Oklahoma State and think he’s an underrated young quarterback. He will surprise many and I have to take the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Browns bounced back from a rough start to the season. They will keep getting unfavorable point spreads since Vegas knows the Browns were a popular comeback pick this year. The Rams are one of the best teams in the NFC and should probably be favored to win by a touchdown, so I’ll take the extra value and take the Rams to cover in Cleveland.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+4) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are 0-2 against the spread and haven’t played up to the same level they played in 2018. I thought QB Mitchell Trubisky would be a breakout candidate this year, but he appears to have regressed a bit. The Redskins are a little underrated since they don’t have any superstars on the team. The ‘stars’ they have on the team are past their prime. This should be the first game that Chicago plays up to their ability.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 16-16-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob