The first week of the 2019 NFL regular season is here!

I finished last season over .500 with my NFL picks against the spread. I hope to continue my streak of profitable NFL picks this season.

This year’s rookie class of quarterbacks isn’t as good as last year’s crop. There were so many rookie quarterbacks that saw action early last season, but it appears that Arizona’s QB Kyler Murray will be the lone rookie to start in Week 1.

I love a lot of the favorites this week. I almost feel wrong for making so many ‘chalk’ picks, but I still found a few underdogs picks to sink my teeth into.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears have high hopes coming into this season. Their defense is among the best in the NFC and they have exciting young players on offense. I wouldn’t quite put them among the group of Super Bowl contenders, but if a few balls bounce in their favor this season, it wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up in the Super Bowl. I expect QB Mitchell Trubisky to take another positive step in his development. The Packers struggled on the road last season and the second-half of their season was forgettable. I don’t think they fixed some issues they had last season. This could be another ‘lost season’ and wouldn’t be surprised if they fail to make the postseason. I feel the Bears are underrated  and the Packers always seem to get a few points in their favor early every season. There’s still some meat on the bone with a Bears cover wager. I’m taking Chicago to cover at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

Vikings fans focused a lot of anger towards QB Kirk Cousins last season. The team paid him a hefty fee and they didn’t feel like they got enough for their money. He’s a good quarterback and he can only improve from last year’s numbers, right? He also gets RB Dalvin Cook back and now has what could be a nice two-tight end combo of Kyle Rudolph and rookie Irv Smith Jr.. Cousins loved his tight ends in Washington, so it was a smart move to add to their squad. The Falcons didn’t make any bold moves this offseason. They should have added another running back in case the often-injured RB Devonta Freeman gets banged up again. I’m not sure RB Ito Smith can fill the void RB Tevin Coleman left when he left for San Francisco. If Atlanta expects to win, they need big gains from the passing game. The Vikings linebackers and secondary are excellent and will need more from their running backs to contend. I don’t see it happening, I’m taking the Vikings to cover.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-10) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

I usually shy away from double-digit point spreads in the NFL, but the Eagles have consistently spanked the Redskins the last two seasons. All four of their wins were by double-digits, and I feel like the Redskins are a worse team this season. They have some young talent on both sides of the ball, but they aren’t developed yet. The Eagles are coming off two deep playoff runs and are a Super Bowl contender this season. I have to take the Eagles to cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3) – My pick is New York Jets

This game is a hard one to handicap. I’m not a huge fan of either quarterback, but QB Sam Darnold did improve a lot down the stretch. Also, the addition of RB Le’Veon Bell will lessen his load on offense. The Bills have a lot of new faces on offense and their defense has some really nice young talent. I’m not sold on Bills QB Josh Allen. If the Jets can pressure him, he could cough it up a few times. That could be the key to covering this game. The Jets may not be great this season, but they should be able to cover at home against the Bills.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+7) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were a much better team with QB Lamar Jackson at QB last season. They added pieces to help him in the offseason. He now has RB Mark Ingram and talented rookie WR Marquise Brown, weapons he will be wise to lean on this season. The Dolphins are doing the opposite right now as they are in the middle of a fire sale. I assume they are stockpiling picks and will tank this season in hopes of drafting Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. They’ve been long been rumored to be enamored with him, which could be bad news for QB Josh Rosen, who they just traded for this offseason. Miami is currently starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who can be good at times, but tends to follow a good game with a stinker. The Ravens secondary should make Fitz throw an errant pass or two, so I’m taking the Ravens.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were one of the best teams in the NFL last season. QB Patrick Mahomes was arguably the best quarterback in the league, but defensive coordinators had all offseason to gameplan for the young quarterback. There’s a lot of film out there now and it will be hard to duplicate last year’s offensive numbers. I don’t predict much of a regression since head coach Andy Reid will have him prepared, since he went through this with Donovan McNabb years ago. The Jaguars had a horrible season last year. They finally replaced QB Blake Bortles with former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Nick Foles. It’s an interesting situation since he hasn’t had any success as a franchise starter. He’s been given the keys to a franchise a couple times and it ended poorly. Jacksonville’s defense is still very good on paper, but they basically quit on head coach Doug Marrone last year. He wasn’t fired this offseason and I question if he really has the ear of his team. If the Jaguars get hosed by the Chiefs in Week 1, it could turn ugly for him again…and I think that could happen. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-6) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are really going for it. They made some big splashy moves this offseason and QB Baker Mayfield is walking with all the confidence in the world. All the news have been about their offense, but I think their defense could be reason they could end up in the playoffs. The Titans defense has also improved, but the team is quite lopsided. They will need to lean on their defense this season. They have a lame-duck quarterback in Marcus Mariota and a young wide receiving corps. If TE Delanie Walker gets injured again, the offense would be a disaster. I’m going hard on the favorites right now. I’m taking the Browns to cover in front of a rabid home crowd. 

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams felt like they were content their offense, so they went nuts signing studs on defense, again. They added former Pro Bowlers LB Clay Matthews and FS Eric Weddle this offseason. It’s crazy that they will line up next to DE Aaron Donald, CB Aqib Talib and CB Marcus Peters. The Rams defense should be very good. The Panthers are changing to a 3-4 defense and added DE Gerald McCoy this offseason. The offense will still run through RB Christian McCaffrey. I like the young talent they have at wide receiver, but will be curious to see if QB Cam Newton will take advantage of the deep ball again. They could beat some of the older secondary on the Rams, but I don’t see Newton having a lot of time to decide. The Rams should bring the pressure on him and stack the box to force him to throw. I’m taking the Rams to cover at Carolina.

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

It really kills me to basically predict another double-digit cover, but I really hate the Bengals roster. On top of the talent disparity, Cincinnati is missing WR A.J. Green due to injury and there are a few other minor injuries that could be an issue on gameday. The Seahawks pulled off a massive trade last week when they added DE Jadeveon Clowney from the Texans. They lost DE Frank Clark this offseason and this helps replenish the lost pass rush (especially since they added DE Ziggy Ansah as well). I think the Seahawks could battle the Rams for the NFC West and are underrated right now. I’m taking Seattle to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

I expected the Colts to be a little undervalued without Andrew Luck, but they still have the same impressive offensive line, an improved pass rush and very underrated secondary. QB Jacoby Brissett is an NFL-level quarterback and he has some nice weapons. He may not throw for 300+ yards, but he should get enough time to make smart throws. The Chargers have been in a contract battle with RB Melvin Gordon this offseason. They have solid backups in RBs Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, so they shouldn’t miss him too much on Sunday. The Chargers are a talented team, but the Colts are too undervalued in this game. This game will be closer than many think and I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a coin flip game. The Bucs hired head coach Bruce Arians this offseason. He should have a huge influence on QB Jameis Winston, who is a free agent after the season. I think it was a smart hire and have been a fan of him since he took over the Colts head coaching duties when then-head coach Chuck Pagano battled leukemia. The Niners have QB Jimmy Garoppolo healthy and made some smart moves this offseason by signing RB Tevin Coleman and trading for DE Dee Ford. I think they will win more games this season, but this is a long trip out East. I’m betting on Arians to sprinkle some of his magic on the Bucs this year, so I’m taking the point.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

When the Lions traded WR Golden Tate away last year, it just wrecked their offense. QB Matthew Stafford didn’t really have any possession receivers and he struggled. They signed WR Danny Amendola and added TE Jesse James and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson to fix that issue. They still have some holes on defense and not completely sold on RB Kerryon Johnson as a starting running back. The Cardinals hired head coach Kliff Kingsbury this offseason. It was an intriguing hire as he was fired as the head coach of Texas Tech. I can’t remember the last time a college football coach was fired and then immediately hired by an NFL team. The offense will be an air raid-esque scheme with rookie QB Kyler Murray. I expect big things from WR Christian Kirk and RB David Johnson this season. I think Arizona will surprise some teams this year and they will in Week 1, so I’m taking the points.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Giants wide receivers had an interesting offseason. First, the Giants traded Odell Beckham Jr. to the Browns. After that it was just a vast array of injuries and an unfortunate PED suspension was handed down to WR Golden Tate. The Giants will need to ride RB Saquon Barkley until they get some of their receivers back. The Cowboys are dealing with some intense contract negotiations right now. RB Ezekiel Elliott is currently holding out and QB Dak Prescott is asking for the moon. Prescott isn’t holding out, but I’m sure it’s a bit of a distraction. The Cowboys are also dealing with a banged-up offensive line with Zack Martin and Tyron Smith playing with back injuries. As much as I hate all the off-the-field stuff that could affect the Cowboys, I don’t believe the Giants are a threat in this game. Dallas should cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers come into this season without all the distractions they had last year. RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown are elsewhere and the team doesn’t seem depleted in their absence. RB James Conner did a great job filling in for Bell last year, and they added two talented rookie running backs to back him up. JuJu Smith-Schuster takes over as WR1 with James Washington and Donte Moncrief battling for the second spot. I also expect TE Vance McDonald to see increased targets as a viable check-down option. The Patriots offense will look a little different without reliable stud tight ends for QB Tom Brady to target in the middle of the field. They have Benjamin Watson and Lance Kendricks, but they are both serving suspensions. They come into this game with Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo as their tight ends. Pittsburgh won’t have to deal with mismatched coverage and can deploy linebackers to cover those tight ends. The Steelers have a lot to prove and the Patriots are prone to early season defeats. I like the youth the Steelers have on offense and will work in their advantage. I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

Remember when the Saints had to play the first four games without RB Mark Ingram last season? They struggled without him and RB Alvin Kamara wasn’t as effective. Ingram signed with Baltimore this offseason and they added RB Latavius Murray to take his spot in the offense…which was a huge downgrade. Other than the loss of Ingram, the Saints team is fairly similar to last year’s squad. They recently added LB Kiko Alonso, but other than that, they didn’t make any huge moves. The Texans recently made some huge moves by acquiring WR Kenny Stilles and LT Laremy Tunsil from the Dolphins, they traded the Browns for RB Duke Johnson and they traded Jadeveon Clowney to the Seahawks. The loss of Clowney could be felt at some point this season, but their defense is still pretty stacked. I also love that QB Deshaun Watson gets his favorite target back. WR Will Fuller tore his ACL last year and Watson’s production took a noticeable nosedive. Fuller is a deep threat and could hurt the Saints on Monday night. New Orleans could pull off the win, but it will be close…so I’m taking the points.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (pk) – My pick is Denver Broncos

I’ve been pretty long-winded with my picks this week and I’m approaching 3,000 words. I’ll be brief with this pick. The Raiders didn’t make the moves this offseason that they needed to make. I don’t believe they will make a huge effort to be a good team until they officially move to Las Vegas. The Broncos should probably be favored by a few points here, so I feel like there’s a lot of value with that pick. Denver is better than you think they are and will win more games than last year. I’m taking the Broncos to cover in Oakland.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob