I went 8-6-1 against the spread last week.

I was a half-point away from going 3-0 against the spread for the third-straight year. Oh well, I ate a lot of turkey and took a nap during the Redskins/Cowboys game, so all was not lost.

We are back to a full sixteen-game slate through the rest of the season. A lot more writing to do every week and analysis to do, but college football regular season is ending, so it all evens out.

Can Baltimore Ravens rookie QB Lamar Jackson start his career with three-straight wins?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2018 NFL season.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints have now covered nine-straight games against the spread. This past week’s 31-17 win over Atlanta was the closest to the spread in quite some time. The Saints have to lose against the spread at some point and a Thursday game seems like a perfect time, right? Well, not so fast. The Cowboys haven’t been putting up a ton of points, but have covered three-straight games. I just don’t have much faith in the Cowboys offense. I know the Saints defense isn’t great, but can Dallas match the Saints score-for-score? The half-point scares me a little, but I have to take the red-hot Saints.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (OFF) – My pick is TBD

This line is currently off the board until we know more about Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky’s playing status. I will update this post when it’s back up.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (+10) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been pretty darn bad against the spread. They are actually 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games. Their defense is the reason for the bad stretch against the spread. They have only lost one of these games outright, so people keep putting money on them. The reason I’m picking the Rams is that if you look at the caliber of teams they played during this stretch, they’ve all been playoff contenders. I would not put the Lions in that category. The Lions are 1-4 against the spread since trading WR Golden Tate. Their offense is just broken right now. I’m taking the Rams all day long.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

This game opened up Atlanta +3, but has been bet up and now the Falcons are favored at home. I understand the swing since rookie QB Lamar Jackson is scheduled to start and the Ravens are a bit bland. Baltimore relies on defense a lot and their offense is a bit one-dimensional with the rookie under center. That being said, the Ravens players just seem to have a little extra pep in their step with Jackson in the game. They have won both games outright (1-1 ATS) and are a beast in the ground game. The Falcons are a better fantasy team than real-life team. They have players that can do damage, but they are just missing something on defense. The Falcons are on a three-game losing streak and have been out-gained on the ground by more than 100 yards in two of those games. The Ravens will burn Atlanta on the ground and this should be a close game, so I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-14) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are a bad team, but are the Packers good enough to be favored by two touchdowns? Green Bay has faced a rough schedule, but I’m not sold on them. The Cardinals pass rush is underrated and could cause some issues for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. I know Arizona is coming off a thrashing (35-point loss), but they should fare better against the Packers. I have to take the points here.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay has skated by this season in hopes that their passing game can out-gain what their bad pass defense gives up. They have been successful in doing that in many games, but a lot of those yards don’t turn into points. Tampa Bay ended their four-game losing streak with a 27-9 win at home against the Niners. It’s not exactly a game you can hang your hat on, but it’s a start. The Panthers are on a three-game losing streak, but their last two losses have been within a field goal. The Panthers beat the Bucs in Carolina 42-28 in early-November. I feel that a similar outcome is very repeatable. I’m taking the Panthers to cover in Tampa Bay.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a on a five-game winning streak (3-1-1 ATS). They actually allowed a sack last week, which ended a long stretch of games without one. They come into this game with some injury issues. RB Marlon Mack is in concussion-protocol and Eric Ebron, WR T.Y. Hilton and C Ryan Kelly have been limited in practice this week. Jacksonville will be without RB Leonard Fournette on Sunday after throwing a punch in a melee at Buffalo last week. Also, the Jags will start QB Cody Kessler in place of struggling QB Blake Bortles. Jacksonville hasn’t covered a spread since late-September, but I feel that could change soon…but not this week. The Colts are on a roll and even if a couple starters have to sit out, I think they will still cover in Jacksonville.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

I tried not to let my hatred of Bengals QB Jeff Driskel overwhelm my picking strategy this week. He was a bettor’s nightmare in college, especially when he was at Florida. I lost my shirt his first season, but I turned the tables and started to bet against him…and I more than won my money back. Driskel does enough to make you think he’s a good quarterback, until he doesn’t…then it’s all downhill. The Broncos are on a roll with back-to-back wins against playoff caliber teams (Chargers & Steelers). Rookie RB Phillip Lindsay is really making a name for himself lately. He has helped QB Case Keenum out and teams have needed to stack the box. I like the Broncos in this game and think they should cover in Cincy.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-6) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns have won back-to-back games with a new focus on the running game. Former head coach Hue Jackson would abandon the run way too early. Also, rookie QB Baker Mayfield is playing much better than he was in October. The Texans are on their own winning streak, a win straight of eight games to be exact (5-3 ATS). Houston has also been trying to run the ball more. They rode RB Lamar Miller on Monday night and he ran for 162 yards, with QB Deshaun Watson and backup RB Alfred Blue adding another 129 more yards on the ground. I expect a similar gameplan this week as the Browns defense is very underrated. They should make this game close, so I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

Don’t let the Bills last two games fool you, they are still a bad team. They smoked the Jets (who has most of their offense on the IR) and beat the Jaguars last week (a team that has given up on their coach). The Dolphins have also had their fair share of stinkers this season, but they finally have QB Ryan Tannehill back. He returned last week and they were in the game until the very end. Losing to the Colts by a field goal isn’t bad for the Dolphins. Tannehill shook some of the rust off last week and should do some damage against a very beatable Bills secondary. I’m taking Miami to cover.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-7.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans couldn’t do anything with the momentum from beating the Patriots two weeks ago. They lost their next two games (Texans & Colts – both on the road). QB Marcus Mariota is looking healthy as he was a threat with his arm and legs last Monday night. The Jets may still not have their starting quarterback this week. Rookie QB Sam Darnold is still banged up and his status is unknown. QB Josh McCown is currently pegged to start and couldn’t do any worse than Darnold. The Jets haven’t covered a game since October 14th. They are also getting some guys off the injury list. They are still too short-handed to contend with the Titans in Nashville.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+15) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and they play one of the worst. The Raiders have packed it in for the year and are playing for draft pick position. The Chiefs are playing for a #1 seed in the AFC and QB Patrick Mahomes could continue to pad his stats for an MVP bid. The Chiefs should win this game by at least 20 points.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

This was a tough betting line. Seattle should beat the Niners, but the double-digit point spread is a juggernaut in the NFL. Are they good enough to cover it? I believe they should, but it could be damn close. The Seahawks are a much better team than they were early this season. They are coming off two-straight wins against playoff-caliber teams (Carolina & Green Bay). The Niners had that one glorious win on Thursday night in QB Nick Mullens debut, but the young quarterback has struggled the last two games. He won’t have an easy time this week. Seattle should cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Patriots have only looked bad in one game since the start of October. They lost to the Titans in Week 10 and it was Tennessee’s defense that confused the Patriots. I fear that the Vikings defense could cause a lot of trouble for the Patriots. New England really hasn’t played a good team since their 43-40 win against the Chiefs way back in Week 6. I’m not sold on the Patriots secondary’s ability to stop Vikings WR Adam Thielen. He’s basically the perfect Patriots slot receiver, but that style is being used against New England. I have to take the points.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers come into this game without RB Melvin Gordon, but their offense has other options at running back. They also saw the return of DE Joey Bosa recently and his impact was immediately felt. The Steelers are in for a fight on Sunday night. The Chargers defense is young, but they are some real game-changers on that side of the ball. I believe the Chargers defense will keep this game tight. I’m taking the points.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles haven’t been able to string together two good games this season. They are coming off a win at home versus the Giants, but they had to come from behind to get the W. Philly is only 3-8 against the spread this season. Some of that is from being defending Super Bowl champions and they face pretty difficult betting lines to hit, but some is also due to injuries. They appear to have found a running back to fill the void (Josh Adams) that many Eagles running back has tried to fill this season. The Redskins have their own injury issues, most prominent is the fact that QB Colt McCoy is starting for them. McCoy is a better quarterback than most give him credit for being, but the Eagles need a strong effort here to get their season back on track. I’m taking them to cover.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 90-75-11

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob