I went 8-3-1 against the spread last week. I’ve went 18-6-1 over the last two weeks. This makes up for hovering around .500 in the first-half of the year.

I started the year off pretty bland, but I’m getting a better feel for the teams now. I just had to adjust my rankings a bit. Also, the half-point losses were a killer early this season. I’ve been on the right side of those the last month.

There are a few marquee games that could decide divisions (Minnesota at Chicago) and one that could be a Super Bowl preview (Kansas City at L.A. Rams).

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

It’s weird to say that a team has turned their season around coming off back-to-back losses, but the Seahawks have done just that. They couldn’t protect QB Russell Wilson early this season and are now having success at keeping him off his back. They nearly knocked off the Rams last week, a game in which that they were double-digit underdogs. The Packers have been up and down all season. They have yet to win a game on the road this year. Seattle is a tough place to win, even though the Seahawks are only 1-2 there this season (losses came against Rams and Chargers). I’m still taking Seattle to cover in a nationally-televised game at home.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense is legit…and it helps that they are now moving the ball on offense. They are coming off two high-profile wins, at Dallas on Monday Night Football and lopsided 34-10 win against New England. The Titans have been a sneaky good betting team since Week 2. They are 6-3 ATS and have covered in three-straight games. The Colts are also on a roll, but haven’t been as kind to bettors. Indy’s offensive line has been a wall and Luck hasn’t been sacked in a few weeks. They also haven’t shaken what I thought was a Chuck Pagano issue, as they tend to take one quarter off every game. It has mostly been the fourth quarter this season and not the first quarter like most of the Pagano era. I’m not sure the Colts have an answer for the Titans defense, so I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys finally have a complete offense now that they acquired WR Amari Cooper. QB Dak Prescott is more of a weapon when he has adequate receivers. He struggled without WR Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten early this season. He finally seems more confident in the pocket with Cooper. The Falcons are coming off a pretty bad loss at Cleveland. They allowed Browns RB Nick Chubb to run all over them. The Falcons didn’t have an answer for him. I fear the Falcons could struggle again with Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott running the ball. The Cowboys will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

It appears the Steelers will have RB James Conner (concussion) this week. He practiced and should be ready to go on Sunday. They will need him as he is becoming their workhorse with RB Le’Veon Bell holding out all season. The Jaguars could struggle to stop him. They allowed Colts RB Marlon Mack and their tight ends to have career games last week. The once-feared Jaguars defense isn’t showing up. The Steelers should cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

Neither of these teams are playing their best football right now. The Bengals are struggling without WR A.J. Green and the Ravens have lost three-straight games. Baltimore is coming off a bye week and the health of QB Joe Flacco is up in the air. He’s dealing with a hip issue and he’s currently questionable. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh hasn’t named a starter if Flacco is unable to play. Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III could both be options. The Ravens offense needs a kick in the pants and either of those quarterbacks bring some life to the Flacco-led vanilla offense. I like the Ravens to cover as Bengals QB Andy Dalton is garbage without WR A.J. Green.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-1.5) – My pick is New York Giants

I’m going against the trend with this pick. Most are taking the Bucs as they have some firepower on offense that the Giants haven’t shown much of one this year. I believe the Bucs are actually a good match-up for the Giants. QB Eli Manning may actually string together back-to-back solid performances this year. He made the passes when he needed to last week in their win over the Niners on MNF. The Bucs just looked horrible last week against the tough Redskins defense. I’m taking the Giants to cover at home.

Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+3) – My pick is Houston Texans

This game may not be a high-scoring affair. Both of these teams’ defenses pack a punch. The Texans are coming off bye and QB Deshaun Watson had an extra week to heal his chest injury. Their offense is pretty darn good when he’s healthy. The Redskins defense has been very good this year, but has two hiccups this year when they allowed a lot of points against the Saints and Falcons. The Texans have won six-straight games (4-2 ATS) and I’m taking them to cover on the road.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (+4) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off a drubbing by the hands of the Steelers last Thursday. They were pretty darn consistent before that game and I want to chalk it up as a poor effort on a short week. They have been competitive in every other game this year. The Lions have not been very competitive. They have lost three-straight games by double-digits. QB Matthew Stafford is not playing well and doesn’t have a go-to receiver when he needs a first down. He doesn’t have another WR Golden Tate on his team. The Panthers should cover on the road. 

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense has slowed down a bit, but they are still dangerous. They have six-straight games (4-2 ATS) and defensive stud DE Joey Bosa practiced for the first time since Week 1. They have young talent on defense and adding Bosa makes them scary. The Broncos have been bad since winning their first two games of the season. Their only win since Week 2 came at Arizona last month. The Broncos offense doesn’t scare me at all. In fact, their defense is the only reason I’m a bit hesitant with my pick, but I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders

Ugh. This game could be ‘bowling shoe ugly’. The Raiders are clearly tanking and the Cardinals haven’t fared much better when actually trying. This is a winnable game for either team. I wouldn’t put the Cardinals as a 5.5-point favorite against any team in the league and for that reason, I’m taking the points.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are the best team in the NFL. They have won eight games in-a-row and have covered seven-straight games. It’s almost time to jump off the betting train as Vegas is creeping closer and closer to a pushing the Saints to a inflated point spread failure. I’m still not afraid of an eight-point betting line. Eagles QB Carson Wentz is playing much better and the Eagles are a ‘real team’ and could challenge the Saints, but I’m still taking the Saints to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Chicago Bears are on a roll. Second year QB Mitchell Trubisky has played like a Pro Bowler since late-September. It helps that his defense is doing their job. They have been a complete team, but they have only one win against a potential playoff team (Seattle in Week 2). Their current three-game winning streak were against three teams in the bottom-third of the league. The Vikings are a legit contender right up there with the best in the NFC. This is a true test for the young quarterback. He did not fare well against Minnesota during his rookie year. The hype train will be stalled a bit. The Bears are good, but I’m not sold that they are good enough to cover at home, so I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

This should be one hell of a game. This has the potential to be a future Super Bowl match-up. The game was moved from Mexico to Los Angeles due to poor field conditions. The Rams only have one loss on the season, but have only covered one of their last seven games (1-6 ATS). The Chiefs have been a bettor’s dream as they have only lost against the spread twice all season. The Rams defense is struggling right now and are giving up a lot of points. This is a difficult stretch of games for the Rams as they have played playoff-level teams in four-straight weeks. The Chiefs offense can hang with any team and will push the Rams. I’m taking the points in what could be a shoot-out.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 75-64-9

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob