I finished 12-12-1 against the spread last week.
After this weekend, there should be a pretty clear picture of what the College Football Playoff may look like at the end of the year.
There are some de facto CFP elimination games this week. Alabama vs LSU is the biggest of them all. I am interested in seeing two of the current top-four CFP ranked teams face-off.
Also, the Georgia game versus Kentucky has playoff implications as well. The winner will most likely win their division in the SEC and play in the conference championship game.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 10 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (November, 3rd, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Colorado at Arizona (-3) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats
Neither team has fared very well as of late. Colorado started out the season 5-0, but have lost their last three games. They have now hit rock bottom after losing to Oregon State at home. Arizona is coming off a big 44-15 win over Oregon, but lost their two previous games to UCLA and Utah. The Wildcats can’t seem to get consistent play from QB Khalil Tate, but they are a hard team to beat when the diminutive running back J.J. Taylor is racking up big yards. The Buffaloes had an easy non-conference schedule and their 5-0 start was inflated. Colorado QB Steven Montez has been found out. The Wildcats should cover at home.
California at Washington State (-10) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
Washington State is 7-1 on the season and an astounding 8-0 against the spread. They haven’t been properly handicapped all season, and a loss against the spread is coming soon…but it’s not happening this week. Wazzu QB Gardner Minshew is racking up opponents and knocking them down. He has been incredible. He threw for 438 yards with three touchdowns in their 41-38 win at Stanford. I’m taking Washington State to stay perfect on the season against the spread.
Stanford at Washington (-10) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal
Both of these teams were expected to compete for the Pac-12 crown, but they have fell flat. Stanford has lost three out of their last four and Washington has lost two of their last three. Heisman hopefuls Stanford RB Bryce Love and Washington QB Jake Browning have both had below average years. One of the bright spots this season has been Stanford QB K.J. Costello. He has a 17 to 6 TD/INT ratio and is completing 66.9% of his passes. The Huskies defense is one of the best in the conference, but they haven’t been great lately. I believe Costello will keep this game close, so I’m taking the points.
Alabama at LSU (+14.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
LSU has been a huge surprise this season. They were expected to do well in the SEC this year, but after upsetting Georgia, they now find themselves among the first-four in the first College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama is atop of those rankings, where they belong. They haven’t been tested at all this season. Their closest game was a 22-point win at home against Texas A&M. LSU will be the best team they’ll face so far this season. If LSU can avoid getting behind early in this one, they have a shot covering the spread. I think they will do just that, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Northwestern (+9.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish have been a better team since QB Ian Book took over the starting job. He is accurate and has a good arm, which isn’t the case for former starting QB Brandon Wimbush. The Irish have even managed to open up the running game with RB Dexter Williams now that defenses have to defend the pass. Notre Dame travels well as they are a perfect 3-0 against the spread on the road this season. Northwestern is on a four-game winning streak (2-1-1 ATS), but Wisconsin was their only good team during that streak. The Wildcats suffered losses at home to Duke and Akron early this season. They have improved, but by how much? The Irish are a much better team and should cover at Ryan Field.
Houston at SMU (+14) – My pick is Houston Cougars
Houston is on a roll thanks to QB D’Eriq King. The dynamic quarterback has thrown 28 touchdowns and ran for another 11 scores. He’s taking care of the football and Houston is putting up at least 41 points per games. Yes, the least amount of points the Cougars have scored has been 41 freaking points. SMU has only scored more than 27 points once this season (against FCS team Houston Baptist). The Mustangs are 3-5 on the year (4-4 ATS) and they are horrible at defending the run. Houston shouldn’t trouble covering the spread on Saturday.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (+2) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
BC have covered three-straight games and four-straight games against ACC opponents. They have a strong running game with a handful of different backs carrying the load. Another thing BC has going for them is that they force a lot of interceptions on defense. Virginia Tech has trouble covering spreads if they are out-gained on the ground. They rely on their running backs quite a bit and if they can’t outdo their opponents in that area, they are doomed. BC is the better running team right now and should cover at Va Tech.
Iowa at Purdue (-3) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Both Iowa and Purdue suffered a defeat last week. Iowa battle Penn State in Happy Valley and lost 30-24. The Boilermakers were the favorites at Michigan State, but lost outright 23-13. They couldn’t live up the previous week’s domination of Ohio State. I think they are still a tad overrated as they really shouldn’t be favored in this game. Iowa is very good and are often overlooked in the Big Ten with Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State sucking up all the oxygen. Iowa QB Nathan Stanley is legit and will keep this game tight with his arm. I’m taking the points here, and the Hawkeyes have a good chance of winning this game outright.
Georgia at Kentucky (+9) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia got back on track last week with a 36-17 win at home against Florida. They had fourteen days to think about their upset loss to LSU. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the nation, but were just caught sleeping. Kentucky needed a touchdown with no time left on the clock to beat Missouri 15-14. Kentucky QB Terry WIlson was having a below average game before his last-second heroics. I fear that he doesn’t have the arm to make Georgia defend the pass. The Bulldogs may stack the box since RB Benny Snell and Wilson pose the biggest offensive threat for Kentucky. Georgia is too much for Kentucky to chew, so I’m taking the Bulldogs to cover.
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-3) – My pick is FIU Golden Panthers
This is where we pick a smaller conference game. This is turning out to be a nice little rivalry. Butch Davis took the FIU job the same time Lane Kiffin vowed to turn the FAU program around. Davis is having more success than Kiffin so far. FIU comes into this game with a four-game winning streak and FAU has lost four out of their last five games. FAU is a one-dimensional team and if FIU can get off to an early lead, FAU doesn’t have the passing offense to keep up. FIU should cover this game at home.
QUICK HITS
Utah State at Hawaii (+18) – My pick is Utah State
Ohio at Western Michigan (+2.5) – My pick is Ohio
Michigan State at Maryland (+2.5) – My pick is Michigan State
Nebraska at Ohio State (-17.5) – My pick is Ohio State
South Carolina at Ole Miss (pk) – My pick is Ole Miss
Marshall at Southern Miss (+3) – My pick is Marshall
Tulane at South Florida (-7) – My pick is South Florida
Navy at Cincinnati (-13) – My pick is Navy
Duke at Miami (FL) (-9.5) – My pick is Duke
USC at Oregon State (+17) – My pick is Oregon State
BONUS PICKS!
Fresno State at UNLV (+25) – My pick is Fresno State
Pittsburgh at Virginia (-7) – My pick is Pitt
Air Force at Army (-7) – My pick is Air Force
Liberty at UMass (-2.5) – My pick is UMass
West Virginia at Texas (-2) – My pick is West Virginia
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 112-107-3