I went 7-7 against the spread last week.

I went .500 with my NFL and college football picks last week. I didn’t have a huge string of wins, it was just win, loss, win, loss, all weekend long.

The trade deadline is now behind us. There were some notable trades, but the big names like Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell didn’t get moved.

It’s clear that there are a handful of teams that have officially packed it in for the year. It’s easy to just write them off, but remember, there are 53 players on every team looking to improve their stock and keep their jobs next season. Just because a general manager wants a top draft pick next season doesn’t mean that team will lose every game left on the schedule.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season.

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have lost six games in a row, but have also played a damn difficult schedule. They played the Rams, Chiefs, Packers and Chargers during this stretch. Their other two losses were both against the Cardinals, who have an underrated defense. The Raiders are on a similar skid with their only win this season coming at home in overtime against the Browns. They can’t stop the run and can’t keep drives going on offense. This game could be ‘bowling shoe ugly’, but I’m taking the Niners to cover at home.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

Detroit has been pretty good against the spread (5-2 ATS), but are only 3-4 outright. They had a five-game winning streak against the spread, but that ended when they lost to Seattle by 14 points a week ago. The Lions made a head-scratching move this week by trading WR Golden Tate to the Eagles. It was a smart move for the franchise as Tate was on the last year of his deal, but it really puts the Lions in a poor situation on offense. I don’t see a receiver on the team that can be as reliable as Tate. WR Marvin Jones will probably be that guy going forward, but he wasn’t a huge part of the offense until last week. The Vikings turned their season around in October. They won three-straight games before losing to the Saints by ten points. Minnesota are a top-tier team when they have a running game. I expect RB Latavius Murray to have another 100-yard game and the Vikings will cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+9) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

I am interested to see how the Browns will take losing their head coach and offensive coordinator. They could take it hard and come out with their tails between their legs, or it could put some pep in their step. The defense has always been their strongest group, but they will need their offense to step up against the Chiefs. There is only so much the Browns defense can do to stop the Chiefs. I don’t see the Browns offense mustering up enough points to stay within single digits. I just like Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes too much right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers had their struggles in September, but have now won three-straight games (and covered all three). RB James Conner is looking like Le’Veon Bell, so having the real thing sit at home isn’t the front page headline right now. It’s crazy how winning can solve all sorts of internal problems. Their defense has also clamped down and isn’t giving up an average of 24 points per game. The Ravens have lost back-to-back games outright and were favored in both games. They are getting beaten by the opposing team’s running backs. They are allowing too many yards on the ground and too many short-yardage receptions out of the backfield. The Steelers are going to nickel and dime the Ravens until they leave WR Antonio Brown or WR JuJu Smith-Schuster open deep. I’m taking the points.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

This is a difficult one. Both teams are dealing with some major injuries. The Jets receiving corps is in shambles and the Dolphins are missing their starting quarterback. The Jets have been smoked in their last three road games. Also, their offense just isn’t up to snuff because too many of their personnel are in street clothes. The Dolphins are in a little better shape and are putting up 20+ points a game with QB Brock Osweiler under center. Miami is a good home team (3-1 ATS) and they should cover on Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10) – My pick is Chicago Bears

It’s hard to bet on a road team as a ten-point favorite…but it’s pretty darn easy to bet on the road team when the home team is starting QB Nathan Peterman. He’s been a turnover machine since the first quarter of his NFL career. In fact, he has thrown nine interceptions in only 81 passing attempts. His turnover rate is among the tops in NFL history. The Bears defense should eat him alive. I just can’t put a single penny on Peterman right now, so I’m taking the Bears to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs pass defense is bad…really, really bad. They are bottom-three in nearly every statistical category. They were true to form last week against the Bengals. They only lost by three points thanks to relief quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bucs need a quarterback that can push the ball down the field just to keep up with the points their defense gives up. The Panthers should have a good offensive day against the Bucs, but I’m taking the points due to Fitzpatrick. At the very least, he should at least keep it within a touchdown, even if that means throwing a garbage-time touchdown late in the game.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Redskins have a very good defense. I don’t think they get enough recognition. Also, RB Adrian Peterson is a nice complement to them. The defense is able to rest on the sideline as Peterson eats up the clock. This will only be Atlanta’s third road game this season. They lost both games pretty bad, but they were against potential playoff teams. The Falcons have really only allowed one running back to hurt them (Steelers RB James Conner). The Falcons passing offense may have a slight edge against the Redskins pass defense. That battle may decide the game, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans and Broncos made a trade this week and now former Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas will face them as a member of the Texans. He will replace injured WR Will Fuller V, who tore his ACL in last week’s game. QB Deshaun Watson is coming off his most prolific game this season. He threw five touchdowns, but only attempted 20 passes. He’s still dealing with a chest injury, so they relied heavily on running backs Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue. I think they will go that route again, but Watson showed he can make the passes when needed. The Broncos are 3-5, but have lost five out of their last six games. They struggle against the run at times, but they do have a potent pass rush. They also have the ability to keep games close against good teams. They only lost to the Rams by a field goal and to the Chiefs last week by a touchdown. This could be another close game, but I’m taking the Texans.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-2) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were a very flawed team early this season. They couldn’t keep QB Russell Wilson upright and their defense was giving up too many big plays. They have now won four out of their last fives games. They are 4-3 on the year (5-2-1 ATS) and this is just their third home game of the year. Seattle is still a very hard place to win on the road. The Chargers are hot and come into this game on a four-game winning streak. They played a pretty light schedule during the streak. In fact, they have really only played two potential playoff teams all season (they lost both games). This could be a close game, but I don’t think the Chargers are good enough to win in Seattle.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-2) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams and Saints are arguably the two hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Rams are a perfect 8-0 (4-4 ATS) and the Saints are 6-1 (5-2 ATS), winners in six-straight games. The Rams are the most complete team in the league. They have one of the best offenses and their defense is full of Pro Bowl talent. The Saints struggled to find themselves early this season without RB Mark Ingram, but are perfect since he returned from suspension. The battle to watch is the Rams passing offense versus the Saints pass defense. The Saints must stop the pass to win the game. I don’t think they will succeed. The Rams just have too many playmakers and should have WR Cooper Kupp back from a knee injury. This should be a fun game to watch.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

This is only the third meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (although it’s only Rodgers’ second start against Brady). The Packers are coming off a close loss to the Rams. They could have had a chance to win the game late, but RB Ty Montgomery fumbled a kickoff (and was immediately traded to Baltimore for next-to-nothing). The Packers have struggled on the road and are winless in three tries. They have played in a ton of close games. Even in their wins, they haven’t been able to create much distance. The Patriots have always been great at extending leads. They have covered the spread in four out of their last five games and are 3-1 ATS at home. This game could be interesting, but there’s something about the Packers that have made me uneasy all season. They are 3-5 ATS this year and have missed the point spread by a wide margin in a few games. The Patriots are a much better team and I’m taking them to cover.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense is very underrated. If their offense was just a little better, they could be 6-1 heading into this game. They got back to their running game in their last game against the Chargers, but came up a point short. Teams have been able to run the Cowboys this year and Dallas struggles in those contests. Also, the Cowboys offense isn’t good enough to do damage against good defenses. How much of a factor will new Cowboys receiver Amari Cooper be? I don’t think he will be much help overall since the offense doesn’t really go through QB Dak Prescott. Dallas will live and die on the back of RB Ezekiel Elliott. I don’t think they have enough firepower on offense to cover 6.5 points, so I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 57-56-8

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob