I went 7-7-1 against the spread (again) last week.

I once again struggled with last week’s early games, but the late games were nice to me. I hope to kick this .500 week trend.

It’s almost time for weather reports to become a factor. It’s not usually a huge deal now that most teams have some sort of retractable roofs. It’s something to keep in mind going forward.

It might be time to abandon a team or jump on the bandwagon on a team that has struggled against the spread. Market corrections are coming soon for some of these teams.

Can Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky get a big win over the New England Patriots?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2018 NFL season.

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+1) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

We’ve had some pretty good Thursday night games this season…but this one is a stinker. The Cardinals are 1-5 on the season, but are 3-2-1 against the spread. A lot of their recent losses have been close. They are getting more out of RB David Johnson and WR Christian Kirk is becoming a solid #2 receiver for the Cardinals. Broncos fans are getting their patience tested by first-year Broncos QB Case Keenum. He is holding onto the ball too long and he isn’t making the ‘on the run’ passes he made last year with the Vikings. This game is a coin flip and I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

This game will be played in London, England. London games are usually messy as hell and are difficult to handicap. The Titans haven’t been very good on offense away from home. Hell, they were shutout AT home last week, so I guess you could say that it doesn’t matter the location. The Chargers have an exciting offense that utilizes both of their talented running backs. The Titans should probably learn something from the Chargers use of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. I’m taking the Chargers to cover across the pond.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

Neither the Bills nor the Colts have played at an NFL-level this season. Indy has been ‘in the game’ in the fourth quarter in all but their loss to New England. There’s something about QB Andrew Luck that he can keep the Colts within shooting distance. The Colts are banged up and Luck has been without WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) and TE Jack Doyle (hip), his two favorite targets. Hilton is participating in practice this week while Doyle remains on the sideline. The Bills are starting veteran QB Derek Anderson in place of injured rookie QB Josh Allen. Anderson has only been on the team for a little more than a week. The Bills need more than just RB LeSean McCoy to keep this game close. I’m taking the Colts to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings finally found a running game last week. We all know that QB Kirk Cousins will do damage thanks to his accuracy and the talent he has at wide receiver, but he needed some help. Minnesota is a dangerous team if they can become less one-dimensional on offense. The Jets are coming off back-to-back wins at home versus the Broncos and Colts. They have been able to beat average teams, but have yet to beat anyone on the Vikings level. I don’t expect Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold to be able to move the ball well, so I’m taking the Vikings to cover.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles devoured just about every player (except Giants RB Saquon Barkley) on the way to a 34-13 win versus the G-Men. Philly didn’t let their injury issues at running back ruin their offense. Running backs Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement stepped up and combined for nice production output from the backfield. The Panthers are coming off a 23-17 loss at Washington. The Panthers just can’t get a traditional running game going for them this season. QB Cam Newton is really their running game with RB Christian McCaffrey more of a pass-catching running back. The Eagles struggled to contain Barkley’s pass-catching prowess, but the that’s because the Eagles also had to defend his rushing skills. I think the Eagles should cover versus the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Chargers made Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield work for every single completion. He was pressured and made some poor passes into tight coverage. He shouldn’t have that problem this week against the Bucs poor pass defense. The Bucs started out the season with two impressive wins, but have lost their last three games. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will need to win a shootout in just about every game they will play this season. The Browns defense is underrated and they could be up for the task. The Bucs have some talented receivers and their tight ends can catch the ball as well. This one could be close, so I’m taking the points.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Bears offense has improved, and there’s no doubt their defense is better with the addition of LB Khalil Mack. That being said, they lost a very winnable game last week. The Dolphins beat them behind the arm of QB Brock Osweiler and the legs of granddaddy RB Frank Gore. It was almost like they forgot that Miami WR Albert Wilson had hands. Wilson killed the Bears in the fourth quarter. The Patriots are coming off a close win in overtime versus the Chiefs. Kansas City exploited the Patriots average pass defense. I wouldn’t put Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky in the same category as QB Patrick Mahomes. I just don’t think he has the kind of arm strength that the Patriots has to gameplan around. Mahomes was able to complete passes over the top of the Patriots secondary. This game could be closer than you think, but the Patriots just seem to always pull out covers in games like this.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) – My pick is Houston Texans

Blake Bortles is really becoming a glaring problem for Jacksonville. He started out the year pretty good, but as more and more of their running backs hit the trainer’s room, the more Bortles is exposed. It doesn’t help that the lauded Jags secondary is getting torched. They aren’t getting much help since their lack of offense is putting the defense in terrible field position. The Texans are on a three-game winning streak. The wins haven’t been pretty as two came by a field goal in overtime. Houston is 3-3 on the season, but 1-5 against the spread. They are good enough to push the Jags to another close game. The Texans defense could cause Bortles to have another game-changing poor performance, so I’m taking the points.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions

This goes against some of the info I tend to lean on when picking games. The Lions aren’t a very good road team and the Dolphins have won every home game this season. I don’t trust Miami QB Brock Osweiler against the Lions pass defense. I think that’s really the dealbreaker for me. This could be close to the line, but I have to take the Lions to cover.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming off a bye and have been crushing it since their close win over the Browns in Week 2. They have a four-game winning streak and have covered in their last three games. They are a much better team with both RB Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. They Ravens are 4-2 on the season and are 4-2 ATS. They are coming off a shutout win at Tennessee. The Titans are having issues on offense, so I’m not sure how much weight that shutout carries. It surprises me that the Ravens are favored in this game. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, but they did get a win in Pittsburgh. The Saints offense is better than any offense they have faced this year, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are arguably the best team in the NFL, but haven’t covered since Week 3. The Rams have been able to win in a variety of ways. If their running game isn’t there, QB Jared Goff can carry the team on his arm and vice versa. They Niners don’t have that luxury. They haven’t won since Week 2, before QB Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. QB C.J. Beathard did enough to keep the game close against the Packers last week, but I don’t see him doing that against the stout Rams defense. I’m taking the Rams to cover.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off a 40-7 win at home against the Jaguars. Their defense made Jags QB Blake Bortles look like, ummm, Blake Bortles. Dallas QB Dak Prescott was able to ‘game manage’ and hit WR Cole Beasley for two touchdowns. Also, RB Ezekiel Elliott just ate away at the clock. The Redskins are also coming off a win. It wasn’t pretty, but they beat the Panthers 23-17. Washington QB Alex Smith was also in game manager mode with RB Adrian Peterson as his counter-point. The Cowboys have had the Redskins number the last two seasons…and this Redskins team isn’t as talented. I’m taking the points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 5-1 on the season (6-0 ATS) and are coming off a close loss to the Patriots. Their defense could be better, but thanks to QB Patrick Mahomes, they were almost perfect so far. The Bengals are also coming off a close loss. They lost to the Steelers 28-21 in a game that saw them out-gained by more than 200 total yards. This game could be a shootout, but the Chiefs offense is a tier above the Bengals. It’s been awhile since Bengals QB Andy Dalton has had a poor game. He tends to have those on the road. It could happen on Sunday night. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover at Arrowhead.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Giants are a team in trouble. The fans are calling for QB Eli Manning’s job and local talk radio is questioning WR Odell Beckham Jr.’s character. Winning would cure a lot of those issues. They are 1-5 on the season and are only 2-4 ATS. The Falcons haven’t fared much better in the standings. They are 2-4, but have been competitive in just about every game. Atlanta’s passing attack has been impressive so far. They will be without RB Devonta Freeman until at least Week 15. They will need QB Matt Ryan to come through in a big way. He has a lot of weapons and I doubt the Giants secondary is up to the task.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 42-44-7

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob