I went 7-9 last week and missed two games by a half-point. I was also surprised by the Bills/Vikings and Jaguars/Titans outcomes. I did not have a very good overall week. I guess it should have been expected in a week with a ton of -3 games. It was going to be a difficult week to handicap.

This is another week with plenty close games. There are also some home underdogs worth keeping an eye on.

There are a handful of new quarterbacks starting this week. Rookie quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen make their first starts and Niners second-year QB C.J. Beathard takes over for injured Jimmy Garoppolo.

Will any of the new faces make an impact for their teams? 

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-7) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Vikings were favored by 16.5 points against the Bills last week…and lost the game by 19 points. That is one hell of a swing. They couldn’t run the ball and only ran the ball six times. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins relied on short passes as he hit #1 target WR Adam Theilen 14 times, but only had 105 yards. Cousins also threw one interception and fumbled the ball three times, losing two of those fumbles. The Rams are on a roll. They are 3-0 on the season and have covered every game so far. They do come into this week with some question marks in the secondary. They lost star cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib for a few weeks. The Rams should be fine if the Vikings plan on relying on quick passes. I’m taking the Rams at home on Thursday night.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans and Colts have played in some tight games the last few years. In fact, their last eight games have all been within a touchdown. The favorite is 2-4-2 in those games. The Texans limp into this game 0-3 (0-3 ATS), but did see QB Deshaun Watson look like his old self a little in their 27-22 loss at home to the Giants. They have lost all three games by a total of 15 points, so they’ve been close games. The Colts have also played in a few close games and come into this game 1-2 (2-1 ATS) on the season. They only lost to the Eagles by four points, but they were out-gained in just about every facet of that game. I can see Watson doing some damage to the Colts young secondary. This may be another close game, but I’m taking the points. 

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions are coming off a huge win against the Patriots. They were able to be a balanced team with a lot of action from running backs Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. They should be able to move the ball on the ground again against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed a lot of yards on the ground and through the air to running backs. Running backs Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Chris Carson have all done well against the Cowboys front-seven. These two teams are pretty even in my eyes, but if the Lions are able to take some pressure off Stafford and be more balanced, I think the Lions keep this one close. I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills beat the Vikings last week in one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. Rookie QB Josh Allen is a huge improvement over QB Nathan Peterman, but Allen has a long way to go. They even won the game without star RB LeSean McCoy (who is expected to play versus the Packers). I worry about the Packers defense. They have had to come from behind in two of their games, and gave up 22 fourth quarter points to the Vikings in their tie game. They should probably be 0-3 if it wasn’t for some magic from QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers may win this game, but I don’t trust their defense. I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are 2-1 (2-1 ATS) with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. They are in a tough spot with QB Jameis Winston due to be activated from his suspension. It sounds like Bucs head coach Dick Koetter has made up his mind and that the Bears will face some Fitz Magic this weekend. The Bucs defense has been a ‘bend, not break’ squad this season, but they have broken a few times this year. They have allowed 40, 21 and 30 points in their three contests. The Bears are 2-1 (2-1 ATS) on the year as well. Chicago have been playing in close games this season. They have needed newly-acquired LB Khalil Mack to be a beast. Their defense is playing like some of their older Bears teams. I worry that the Bears offense may not be able to keep up with the Bucs. I still think Tampa Bay receivers are too talented and will score 21+ points through the air. This game could be close, so I’m taking the points.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars only managed to score six points in their 9-6 loss at home versus the Titans. They were without RB Leonard Fournette for the second-straight game. They defeated the Patriots without him the week before, but the Titans just had the Jags number on Sunday. Fournette is expected to play this weekend. The Jets are coming off a last-second loss to the Browns on Thursday Night Football. They appeared to have the game under control, but the Browns put QB Baker Mayfield in the game. He was able to move the ball well and pull off some magic. I worry Jets QB Sam Darnold will not be able to do much against the Jags defense. The Jets could have trouble getting out of single-digits on Sunday. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots and Dolphins have split the season series nearly every year in recent memory. Even when the Patriots were near-perfect, they would have trouble winning games down in Miami. That being said, the Dolphins have always had trouble winning games in Foxborough. QB Ryan Tannehill has looked pretty darn good after sitting out all season season with an injury. They are 3-0 (3-0 ATS), but have played three very winnable games against the Titans, Jets and Raiders. This will be their first big test. The Patriots are 1-2 (1-2 ATS) and have lost back-to-back road games to the Jaguars and Lions. They have also lost two running backs for the season (Jeremy Hill and Rex Burkhead). I still have faith in the Patriots at home. They still have offensive weapons at other positions. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski has been vocal about his lack of targets this season. It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes off against the Dolphins. I’m taking the Patriots to cover at home. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

After playing flat in his first game of the season, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been dialed in the last two weeks. He has been accurate and he’s been able to play with one of his new toys (WR Calvin Ridley). The rookie wide receiver as 11 receptions for 210 and four touchdowns in the last two games. He may have leapfrogged Mohamed Sanu as Atlanta’s #2 wide receiver. The Bengals will be without RB Joe Mixon again this week. They have played just fine without him. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has limited his turnovers and is keeping Cincinnati in every game. The Bengals secondary played better last week in their 31-21 loss to the Panthers, but they struggled against the Colts and Ravens. They could be the key to this game. If they can’t cover WR Julio Jones or Ridley, the Bengals have no shot. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+4) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Titans are coming off a surprising 9-6 win over the Jaguars. Tennessee has a good defensive squad that doesn’t get much love. QB Marcus Mariota is still a little banged up, but is planning to start. The Eagles beat the Colts last week in QB Carson Wentz’s first game back from major knee surgery. He knocked the rust off early in the game, but looked like his old self in the fourth quarter. He will be without a few running backs again, but they did just fine with their backfield of scrubs last week. They will need a little more from them this week if they hope to cover on the road. I’m taking Wentz and the Eagles to cover in Nashville.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s defense stepped up last week in their 24-13 win at home over Dallas. They will need to do it again on the road against Cardinals rookie QB Josh Rosen. This will be Seattle’s third road game in their first four games. Their offensive line isn’t getting better, but QB Russell Wilson has found success by getting the ball out fast. Arizona’s offense has been pretty bad this season. They could score a little more with Rosen, but we shall see. I’m taking Seattle to cover in Arizona.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

Call me a believer, but I love me some Browns QB Baker Mayfield. I loved him in college, thought he was the best quarterback in last year’s NFL Draft and he looked really good this preseason. The Browns offense came alive when he replaced the concussed QB Tyrod Taylor last week. Also, don’t sleep on Cleveland’s defense. They are pretty darn good. The Raiders are 0-3 in the Jon Gruden era 2.0. I can’t say that QB Derek Carr impressed me this season either. I thought Gruden would fix his few problems, but Carr now looks like a very problematic quarterback. I’m taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5) – My pick is New York Giants

I worry about the Saints defense. They were such a huge reason for their turnaround last season, but they just haven’t been making plays. They are 2-1 (1-2 ATS) this season, but could easy be 0-3 if a kick or two went the other direction. The Giants are coming off a 27-22 win over the Texans. Giants QB Eli Manning is doing what he can do keep the Giants in games. He is targeting WR Odell Beckham Jr. and finding ways to get the ball in rookie RB Saquon Barkley’s hands. As long he keeps doing that, I think the Giants will be in just about every game this year. I am not sold on the Saints stopping either of those guys, so I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball. I wish DE Joey Bosa was healthy, but they are trying their best to get at the quarterback without him. The Chargers are only 1-2 (1-2 ATS), but I still think they are in the top-sixteen in the league power rankings. The Niners come into this game knowing that their star QB Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL and will be out for the year. QB C.J. Beathard got some experience last year, but he did not look very good. I hate that half-point, but I’m taking the Chargers to cover.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers and Ravens always seem to play in close games. They know each other so well that you know going into it that it will be a chess game. The Steelers have more pieces on the chess board. They just have more playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Ravens will keep it close, but Pittsburgh need a big statement win to win the locker room back. I’m taking the Steelers to cover at Heinz Field.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has been crazy good this season. QB Patrick Mahomes has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has a huge arm and the Chiefs are unleashing it on their opponents. This will be their third road game of the year and if they can come out with a win, they have a very favorable path to a AFC West title. It may be a bit too early for that, but if you win three road games in your first four games, that’s a huge accomplishment. The Broncos have some things to hang their hat on this season too. They are 2-1 (0-2-1 ATS) and have relied on a pair of rookie running backs to help new QB Case Keenum to lead the offense. This could very well be a shootout with both quarterbacks amassing huge amount of yards. I have to go with the Chiefs in a shootout, so I’m taking them to cover.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 23-23-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob