I rarely do Week 1 college football gambling picks, but I feel like I’ve done so much research, it’s time I do it this year.

The reason I rarely do Week 1 college football picks is because I like a little more information. I can see how teams do and a lot of college coaches like to wait until the last minute to officially name a starting QB (I’m looking at you UCLA & Alabama). Teams can vary so much in college that there’s a lot of risk in Week 1…but on the other hand, if you’re prepared, there’s also a lot of value in betting heavy in the first two weeks of the season.

There are some big games this week as Notre Dame, Florida State, Auburn, Washington and Michigan all face tough opponents to start the season.

We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 1 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (September 1st, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.

Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-35.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers

I have to admit, that half-point scares me a little and wish I had gotten to it when it opened at -34. There is a slight chance it could dip back down to -35 before kickoff, so it could be wise to wait. I’m taking Wisconsin here because RB Johnathan Taylor is arguably the best running back in the country and Western Kentucky had to replace nearly their entire front-seven. The Hilltoppers have a good secondary, but the Badgers outclass them in every area. They are one of the best teams in the country and think they will start off very strong with a cover.

Cincinnati at UCLA (-15) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats

Chip Kelly took over the job at UCLA and the hype train is in full force. It may take Kelly a year or two to get the right personnel to turn the Bruins into Pac-12 contenders. Kelly has been coy about who will start at QB for his team. They narrowed it down to sophomore Devon Modster, freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Michigan-transfer Wilton Speight. My guess is that Kelly will play a combination of at least two of them, as there is no front-runner. Speight didn’t have much success at Michigan, so my hopes aren’t high he will start playing well at UCLA this season. Cincinnati has done a good job recruiting the last two seasons and Luke Fickell is building a foundation in Cincinnati. I’m taking the Bearcats because I feel the Bruins will be overrated early this season. This line is a few points too high and think the Bearcats keep it within two touchdowns.

Louisville vs Alabama (+24.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide

This game is in Orlando at Camping World Stadium. I’m quite bullish on Alabama this season. We all know they bring it on defense and always do enough on offense to win by a nice margin (at least during the first three months of the season). Head coach Nick Saban hasn’t announced the starting quarterback and could use both Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa in different packages. My guess is that Tagovailoa will get the overwhelming advantage in snaps. He’s the best quarterback and even though his role isn’t defined, he’s currently the co-favorite to win the Heisman. Louisville has a tough task of replacing arguably the best quarterback in Louisville history (Lamar Jackson). Head coach Bobby Petrino can never be counted out on offense, but their defense could be bad. I’m taking the Tide to push the pace on Louisville’s poor defense and cover.

BYU at Arizona (-11.5) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats

Kevin Sumlin was hired to take over the job of turning the Arizona Wildcats into a top-tier Pac-12 team. The anticipation is huge due to dual-threat QB Khalil Tate. Sumlin was able to lead Johnny Manziel to the Heisman, who had similar skills as Tate. The Wildcats improvements really live and die by Tate’s performance. They may need to out-gun a lot of teams as their defense might be a year away from being competent. BYU started last year pretty bad and didn’t look like any BYU squad in recent memory. They couldn’t pass the ball, but was finally able to move the ball through the air by late-October. Their defense may be their best squad, which is again, atypical for BYU. This line moved a few points as BYU was hit heavy when it opened. They are a fairly public team and I like where this line has landed for Arizona.

Virginia Tech at Florida State (-7.5) – My pick is Florida State Seminoles

Willie Taggart is back in Florida after a year away in Oregon. He has a lot of success recruiting in the state as the head coach of South Florida. Jimbo Fisher didn’t leave him with a bare cabinet, so he may just need to re-tool in Tallahassee. He named QB Deondre Francois as his starter and I feel it was a wise choice. Francois had success his freshman year, but went down with a season-ending injury early last year. It was the first blow to the Seminoles who had a forgettable 2017 season. Virginia Tech is probably a year or two away from being a contender in the ACC. Their defense is young and I’m not a fan of sophomore QB Josh Jackson. I’m taking the Seminoles to open the year with a cover.

Michigan at Notre Dame (-1.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines

The Fighting Irish were young last year and they overachieved. I would point to their top-tier offensive line as the reason, and they lost the Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey to the NFL (both were top-10 draft picks this year). They have some young blue chippers taking their spots, but they won’t be on the same level. They will also miss RB Josh Adams, who broke many long runs playing behind that line. QB Brandon Wimbush isn’t an accomplished passer and I fear they could be too one-dimensional. Michigan was able to snag Ole Miss-transfer QB Shea Patterson and successfully petitioned to play to avoid sitting out a year. He is BY FAR the best quarterback head coach Jim Harbaugh has had in Ann Arbor. Their offense should be better and won’t have to rely as much on their solid defense, but will. Safety Khaleke Hudson will be a household name by the season end. This game should be close and I have to give the nod to Michigan, as I think their defense will be key to the cover.

Tennessee vs West Virginia (-10) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers

This game is at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Mountaineers relied heavily on QB Will Grier last season. When he broke a finger while diving for a touchdown against Texas, and he missed the rest of the regular season, the Mountaineers went 0-3 without their star quarterback. They will struggle with depth again, but as long as Grier is healthy, they should be in every game this season. Tennessee is rebuilding with new head coach Jeremy Pruitt. He has great SEC pedigree as he was an assistant at Georgia under Mark Richt and recently an assistant under Nick Saban at Alabama. The Volunteers fan base is flat about the hire as they didn’t get any of the marquee names out there during the coaching carousel this offseason. It could be a lengthy rebuild in Knoxville as they play a tough schedule and may not appear competitive enough to land top recruits. This could be a tight contest, but I think Grier’s arm should pull them to a double-digit win late in the game.

Washington vs Auburn (-2.5) – My pick is Washington Huskies

This game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. This might be the best game of the week. You have Washington QB Jake Browning facing off against Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham…that’s a lot of quarterback talent in one game. Browning couldn’t match his 2016 numbers last season, but he was efficient. That’s all the Huskies really need this season as their defense is reloaded after losing nearly their entire secondary in the 2016 NFL Draft. Auburn is a talented team, but I worry about Stidham’s performance against Washington’s defense. He struggled against Clemson, Georgia and LSU last season and didn’t throw for more than 165 yards in any of those games. Many forget those performances due to Auburn’s upset win over Alabama. This is a tough road game for Washington as this is an extreme travel game to play in Atlanta. I still think they show up and make things very difficult for Auburn’s offense. I’m taking the points in this game.

Oregon State at Ohio State (-38.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes

I rarely pick the favorite when two ‘BCS’ schools face each other with large of a point spread. I’m making an exception here because Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country and Oregon State might be the worst team in the Power Five conferences. The Buckeyes will be without head coach Urban Meyer in thsi game due to being suspended for the first three game for his handling of the alleged Zach Smith domestic violence situation. I don’t think it will matter against Oregon. QB Dwayne Haskins won the quarterback competition in Columbus and will take over for the graduated J.T. Barrett. He has huge shoes to fill, but he showed his mettle when he took over for an injured Barrett against Michigan last season. I really don’t need to mention much about Oregon State other than new head coach Jonathan Smith has his hands full. 

UMass at Boston College (-18) – My pick is Boston College Eagles

This is where we usually pick a game with smaller conference teams, but most smaller conference teams are facing Power Five schools this week. Boston College was without any semblance of offense for a couple seasons, but they really turned things around late last year. They relied heavily on youth and things started to click. I have the Eagles as a potential darkhorse to make some noise in the ACC this season. UMass is slowing improving, but they had to replace some key defenders in the front-seven. The Minutemen will struggle against the Eagles ground game, so I’m taking BC to cover at home.

QUICK HITS

Syracuse at Western Michigan (+5) – My pick is Syracuse

Wake Forest at Tulane (+6) – My pick is Wake Forest

Northwestern at Purdue (-1.5) – My pick is Purdue

UCF at UConn (+24) – My pick is UCF

Ole Miss vs Texas Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Ole Miss

Houston at Rice (+25.5) – My pick is Houston

Texas vs Maryland (+13.5) – My pick is Texas

Central Michigan at Kentucky (-17) – My pick is Central Michigan

Marshall at Miami (OH) (+2.5) – My pick is Miami (OH)

Washington State at Wyoming (+1) – My pick is Wyoming

BONUS PICKS!

UNLV at USC (-26.5) – My pick is USC

Old Dominion at Liberty (+6.5) – My pick is Old Dominion

Boise State at Troy (+10) – My pick is Boise State

Indiana at FIU (+9.5) – My pick is FIU

Navy at Hawaii (+10) – My pick is Navy

Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:

2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 0-0-0

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.