Your boy had a really rough week. I missed on a couple embarrassing blowouts, injuries hurt two games and weather was a huge factor. I thought weather would miss some of these games, but nope, the middle of the country was just pounded by rain and poor playing conditions.
It’s officially rivalry week. The country’s biggest programs face their rivals this week. These games have a reputation for being closer than normal games, but it’s not an ‘end all, be all’ rule one must obey. Good teams still blow out their rivals on a consistent basis. There is always at least one big upset to keep the attitude of ‘throw the record books out when these two teams meet’ alive.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 30 college football games against the spread in Week 13 of the NCAA Football season (November 25th, 2017). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Navy at Houston (-4.5) – My pick is Navy Midshipmen
Navy played Notre Dame up until the final drive. They came up short, but they impressed a lot of people. If you read this site for any length, I tend to favor teams that run the triple-option, especially if the opposing team doesn’t play that offense much. Navy and Houston has played each other the last two years and they are split 1-1. Houston had a pretty damn good team two years ago and they owned Navy. The Midshipmen ran all over the Cougars last year and won. I don’t like this line and think Navy could win this came outright, so I’ll take the points.
Florida State at Florida (-+5) – My pick is Florida State Seminoles
I can’t remember the last time these two faced each other and BOTH teams are under .500. Injuries and just blatant ineffectiveness have derailed both programs this season. Florida beat the one-dimensional UAB team and FSU destroyed Delaware State by nearly 70 points. You can’t glean anything from those games. I just know that every time Florida has faced an FBS team this season, I have not liked their chances. The Seminoles still have some NFL-bound talent on defense. They should do enough to keep them from scoring much in this game. I’m taking the Seminoles to cover.
Ohio State at Michigan (+11.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes have bounced back in a big way since losing at Iowa. They have outscored their opponents 100-17 in their last two games. Their defense is better and OSU QB J.T. Barrett is taking care of the ball. The Wolverines still have a very good defense and I do worry Barrett will end up coughing up a pick or two, but this game is so crucial for Ohio State. They need this win (and a few losses from other teams), to get into the College Football Playoff. If they cover at Michigan, it would go a long way if there are a few upsets above them in the polls. I have to take Ohio State to cover.
Georgia at Georgia Tech (+11) – My pick is Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech are 5-1 at home and 0-4 on the road…a weird split. Three of those road games were against probably bowl teams, so I guess it’s just unfortunate scheduling. The Yellow Jackets are still 7-2-1 ATS and are always a tough opponent. Georgia bounced back from their upset loss at Auburn with a 42-13 win at home over Kentucky. They for their running game back on track. The Bulldogs face the Yellow Jackets every season, so they are all too familiar with the triple-option…but they still have issues covering against Tech. The Yellow Jackets won at Georgia just last year. Georgia may win this game outright, but I have to take the points knowing that the pesky Yellow Jackets are a tough cover.
Alabama at Auburn (+4.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
This is a tough one. Alabama is just beyond stacked with NFL talent and are so damn impressive. Auburn doesn’t have as much NFL talent, but are still loaded and their upset win over Georgia is still fresh in my memory. I also love me some Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham. I do worry about his ability to succeed if a team gameplan’s to stop him. He only completed 9 of 26 passes in their loss to LSU and had just 79 passing yards against Clemson early this season. I know it’s hard to translate what’s happening now to things early in the season, but those are two strikingly bad performances against really good defenses. Alabama has arguably the best defense in college football, so it’s hard to throw any jellybeans at Auburn after watching those two performances. Does the upset win over Georgia cancel those out? I don’t think so. The Bulldogs had a young quarterback and struggled against Auburn’s defense. I have to take the Tide to cover in the Iron Bowl.
Clemson at South Carolina (+14) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
The Gamecocks have struggled this season when facing the top teams in the SEC. Clemson isn’t in their conference, but they would match up well with just about every team in the SEC. When the Gamecocks face a team that runs the ball, they can’t keep up. Clemson does that AND they can air it out if it’s given to them. Clemson will win this game and the cover will be cutting it close, but I have faith in a cover on the road.
Notre Dame at Stanford (+2) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
I’m taking an Irish cover on the road, but for the record, Stanford RB Bryce Love scares the hell out of me. He’s a stud and it seems like whenever Stanford has a stud running back, he ends up having a career day against the Irish. Love is dealing with an injury, but is expected to play. On the flipside, Irish RB Josh Adams should scare the Cardinal. His ability to bust a long run is unmatched in college football. This game should be really close and even though Notre Dame have lost three-straight covers, I still have to take the Irish to cover.
Washington State at Washington (-10) – My pick is Washington Huskies
I’ve avoid Pac 12 games the last two weeks, but I feel like I have a better feel for handicapping the conference again. Washington State is a bad road team and hasn’t been the same since their 37-3 loss at Cal. They have struggled to cover games and their once-prolific offense is just a tick above average. Washington is also going through some issues, but was able to bounce back from their 30-22 loss at Stanford with a 33-30 win at home against Utah. I do worry that they didn’t cover the large spread in that game, but the Huskies have been drubbing the Cougars nearly every year. This isn’t really a rivalry right now since Washington has destroyed them the last three year and covered each of those games. I’ll take the Huskies to cover the Apple Cup thanks to Washington QB Jake Browning.
Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh (+13.5) – My pick is Pitt Panthers
Miami is perfect on the season and this game scares me a little. The Hurricanes aren’t strong on the road and have only played three road games all season. They are 2-1 ATS, but in hindsight, they should have beaten a couple of those teams by way more than they did. I thought they would steamroll Virginia last week, but Miami QB Malik Rosier only had an average game. Also, their Miami secondary let UVA QB Kurt Benkert throw for 384 yards and four touchdowns. Pitt is a mid-tier ACC team, but have held their own at home. Pitt has also had a pretty hard schedule with non-conference games against Penn State and Oklahoma State. They are better than their record suggests. I’ll take the points.
Ohio at Buffalo (+4) – My pick is Ohio Bobcats
Buffalo has had two cupcake games in back-to-back weeks. They barely covered at home against Bowling Green and failed to cover at Ball State, a team that nearly every other MAC team has demolished. Ohio is one of the better MAC teams, but are coming off a 37-34 loss at Akron. The Bobcats are the better team and Buffalo struggles against good running teams, so I’ll take Ohio to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Indiana at Purdue (-2.5) – My pick is Indiana
West Virginia at Oklahoma (-22.5) – My pick is Oklahoma
North Carolina at NC State (-16.5) – My pick is North Carolina
Boise State at Fresno State (+7) – My pick is Boise State
Iowa State at Kansas State (-3) – My pick is Iowa State
Wisconsin at Minnesota (+17) – My pick is Wisconsin
Boston College at Syracuse (+3.5) – My pick is Boston College
Louisville at Kentucky (+10) – My pick is Louisville
Iowa at Nebraska (+3.5) – My pick is Iowa
South Florida at Central Florida (-10.5) – My pick is Central Florida
BONUS PICKS!
Idaho at New Mexico State (-8) – My pick is New Mexico State
Southern Miss at Marshall (-2.5) – My pick is Marshall
Florida Atlantic at Charlotte (+21.5) – My pick is FAU
Baylor at TCU (-24.5) – My pick is TCU
Western Michigan at Toledo (-13.5) – My pick is Western Michigan
OVERTIME!
Mississippi at Mississippi State (-16) – My pick is Ole Miss
Utah Stat at Air Force (-2) – My pick is Utah State
Colorado at Utah (-10.5) – My pick is Colorado
Texas A&M at LSU (-10.5) – My pick is LSU
Texas-San Antonio at Louisiana Tech (+4) – My pick is UT-San Antonio
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 159-140-11
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.