I ‘sacked’ Vegas last week and finished with a 12-1-1 record. It was my best finish of the year and hope to carry the momentum forward. I also hit on two nice moneylines last week. I would have had a blemish-free week if it wasn’t for the Eagles.
There are a few weird lines this weekend. Those questionable lines surround average teams being favored by six points or greater. It’s just odd seeing these kinds of odds this early in this year. A few lines appear more like Week 17 lines.
NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3) – My pick is Denver Broncos
You have to applaud how San Diego has played so far this season after losing so many key players on offense and defense. They come into this game with even more injuries and I think the uncertainty of the offensive line will be the demise of the Chargers in this game. Broncos QB Trevor Siemian will play on Thursday after sitting out last week’s game with a sprained AC joint. I’m taking the Broncos to cover on the road.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3) – My pick is New York Giants
I’ve been talking trash about Baltimore since before they even lost a game. They finally fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. The former ‘quarterback guru’ didn’t improve QB Joe Flacco at all. The Giants are currently 2-3, but other than the game against the Vikings, have been in every game late. Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. needs a game to get everything ‘right’ and this could be that game. I’m taking the Giants to cover.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
Oh man…I hate this line. On one hand, the Browns are really bad, but do you trust a 2-3 team to cover a touchdown point spread? I love what Tennessee is doing right now. They’ve learned that they have to feed RB DeMarco Murray the ball early to get him warmed up. He does best when he gets 20+ carries. The Titans are also pretty good against the run on defense. I don’t think Browns QB Cody Kessler (or one of the other injured quarterbacks) can keep this close without good game from RB Isaiah Crowell. I’m taking the Titans to cover.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton is cleared to play and Carolina will be excited to have their leader back. I do worry about the Saints offense, but think Carolina will be able to stop them on a few key drives to lock up this cover. I’m taking Carolina to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3) – My pick is Washington Redskins
The Eagles looked great the first three weeks of the season. They looked rusty in their loss at Detroit after having a bye week. Philly QB Carson Wentz threw his first interception of his pro career. Washington come into this game the winners of three straight games. They haven’t gotten good results from their running backs this season. RB Matt Jones needs a good game or RBs Chris Thompson and Robert Kelley could start eating into his workload. I think the Redskins will keep this close and could squeak out a win, so I’m taking the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-8) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
I hate this line, but I understand why it’s this high. Buffalo has won three straight games since firing their offensive coordinator and San Francisco is giving QB Colin Kaepernick the keys to the offense. Here’s the thing, I want to take the Niners, but they have just been horrible against the run. Buffalo will run the ball nonstop against their defense. Kaepernick will probably be a little better than QB Blaine Gabbert…but I have to take the Bills to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags played pretty well against Indy and won their game in London two weeks ago. They are coming off a bye and think they fixed a few of their issues. RB Chris Ivory isn’t even listed on their injury report, which is a great sign. Bears QB Brian Hoyer played great in their loss to Indy last week. I was also impressed with rookie RB Jordan Howard. The Jags need this win to keep their hopes alive in the AFC South. I think they keep this one close. I’m taking the points.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Lions are coming off a late-minute win over the Eagles. They were efficient, but were still outgained by over 100 yards in that game. The Rams are coming off a double-digit loss at home to Buffalo. QB Case Keenum needs a strong game to keep his job. I think the Rams will feed RB Todd Gurley this game. The Lions have been outgained on the ground in their last four games. Gurley should have some success on Sunday. I’m taking the points.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9) – My pick is New England Patriots
I hope Cincinnati keeps this one close, but as a bettor, I know better. Pats head coach Bill Belichick loves to take away his opponent’s best offensive weapon. Cincy’s best weapon is WR A.J. Green, which QB Andy Dalton desperately needs. He is already without TE Tyler Eifert again due to a back injury. Dalton found WR Brandon LaFell a few more times than usual last game, so he will need LaFell to show up this weekend. I just don’t like Cincinnati in this game. I’m taking New England to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I really hate that extra half-point…but the Steelers offense has really been clicking since getting shutdown by Philly in late-September. The Dolphins are struggling and now fans are questioning the abilities of starting QB Ryan Tannehill. I think we are just witnessing a talented young quarterback having trouble picking up his new coach’s offense. I’m taking the Steelers to cover…and if for some reason this falls to +7, hit it hard.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland RB Latavius Murray missed last week’s game against San Diego with turf toe. They barely came out of that game with a win. They are a different team without Murray. They don’t have another running back that can carry the workload. The Chiefs are coming off a bye week, so hopefully RB Jamaal Charles will get some more carries along with Spencer Ware. I think these teams are pretty even in the talent department, but have a feeling KC QB Alex Smith should be able to nickel and dime Oakland’s secondary down the field. I’m taking the points in this game.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
I understand Seattle is a difficult place to play and the Seahawks are still a top team in the league, but this betting line seems a little ridiculous. The Falcons’ offense is currently on fire. Atlanta WR Julio Jones will have issues against ‘The Legion of Boom’ secondary, but I think he should still have a solid game for the Dirty Birds. Seattle’s offense hasn’t really shown they can keep up with Atlanta. I just don’t think they can cover a point spread this high against an explosive offense. I’m taking the points.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers fixed some of their issues from early in the season. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers still doesn’t seem like he’s 100% for some reason after missing WR Jordy Nelson a few too many times last game. I do like Dallas and think they are a vastly improved team with some of their rookies on offense, but think the Packers will be just a little too much for the Cowboys. I’m taking Green Bay to cover.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3) – My pick is Houston Texans
The Colts have owned the Texans since the creation of the AFC South, but Houston is a much better overall team this season. I worry for Indy QB Andrew Luck’s life on Sunday night. The Colts offensive line is horrible and will be eaten up by Houston’s front-seven. I’m taking Houston to cover.
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Arizona QB Carson Palmer has been cleared to play after suffering a concussion in Week 4’s game. They managed to win last week without him thanks to RB David Johnson’s monster game. Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick managed to not throw an interception last week in their 31-13 loss to Pittsburgh. I don’t think he will escape this game without at least one pick. Arizona’s secondary is filled with ballhawks. Once again, I hate the extra point, but I have to take Arizona to cover.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 42-31-4
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob