I once against went perfect on Thanksgiving. I then hit on a bunch of early games, but the late games nearly ruined a good week. I hit on some moneylines and was super stoked about picking the Broncos moneyline against New England. It was a nail-biter, but I’ll take it.
I went 10-6 last week against the spread. I’ve had three-straight strong weeks and have made up for me bouncing around .500 in college football this year.
There are a lot of division games this weekend. Which ones will end up being upsets?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2015 NFL season.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions
It’s been awhile since one team played in back-to-back Thursday games…both of these teams played on Thanksgiving. Detroit looked great against Philly last week, but I’m not taking a lot away from the game. Philly’s defense struggles against big, physical receivers. Green Bay has looked flat since Eddie Lacy decided to eat his way out of a job. Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting much help from the running game. I think this game will be tight, so I’m taking the points. I like Detroit as a possible moneyline play.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+9.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland officially named Austin Davis as their starting quarterback. This line was pulled from many sports books earlier in the week with the hope of Johnny Manziel starting the game. I don’t have much faith in Davis as the starter. He had his moments with the Rams in the past, but Cincinnati is an elite team. The Bengals will cover this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee and Jacksonville just played a sloppy Thursday night game two weeks ago. Jacksonville had to come back in the 4th quarter to win 19-13. Tennessee is an awful home team. They get little to no advantage playing at home. I think the outcome will be similar to the previous game. I’m taking the points.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-4) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
Baltimore won a bat shit crazy game at Cleveland on Monday night. It was a very ‘Cleveland’ way to lose a game. Matt Schaub did a pretty decent job subbing for the injured Joe Flacco. Cleveland’s secondary is good, so it impressed me. I still fear Schaub will fall back into a his bad habit of throwing slow swing passes that get picked off (and most likely run back for touchdowns). The Ravens are still a bad team and I believe Miami is less bad. Ryan Tannehill needs to step up. I’m taking Miami to cover at home.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-7) – My pick is Chicago Bears
As much as Blaine Gabbert has been the butt of many jokes on this site, he has been so much better than Colin Kaepernick. He also has little to no running game helping him out. Bad officiating ruined their shot at beating Arizona last week. The Niners are improving, but so have the Bears. They beat Green Bay on Thanksgiving and nearly beat Denver just a few days before that. They are getting some injured players back at the right time. Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery are what Jay Cutler needs to be successful. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.
New York Jets at New York Giants (+2) – My pick is New York Jets
At this point, Eli Manning and Odell Beckham are the Giants offense. They don’t get much on the ground and Victor Cruz is out for the season. The Jets have been really good at limiting the opposing team’s best offensive weapon. OBJ will still end up having a few highlight catches, but I think the Jets will pressure Eli enough in this game to make him throw a few bad passes. I’m taking the Jets to cover.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+6) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Rams played like garbage against the Bengals last week. Case Keenum couldn’t play due to the head injury he suffered against Baltimore. Keenum is currently questionable for this game. Arizona is currently on a five-game winning streak (2-3 ATS). St. Louis beat Arizona 24-22 in early October. Nick Foles was playing much better at that time. I think Arizona will right that wrong and cover on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay didn’t have a great day against Indy last week. They would move the ball, but then fail to convert on third down. It’s not too alarming since it’s a common issue young NFL teams have. As long as they keep doing what they have been doing, they should convert third downs more regularly. The Falcons have been horrible against the run and Tampa Bay has found out how to effectively utilize Doug Martin. I’m taking the Bucs at home to cover.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
Houston is on one hell of a run against the spread. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Their defense has finally stepped up and playing up to expectation. Their offense is still a house of cards. Their only consistent player is wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The Bills offense has multiple weapons and the Texans will struggle to stop Sammy Watkins. I’m taking the hometown in this content and picking the Bills to cover.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+1) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
Seattle didn’t ‘win’ last week’s game against Pittsburgh…Pittsburgh ‘lost’ the game. The Steelers made a bunch of bonehead mistakes and had questionable play-calling. Seattle will now be without tight end Jimmy Graham for the rest of the season. Russell Wilson will have his work cut out for him at Minnesota. The Vikings defense is young and fast. I’m taking the Vikings at home.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have just been running the ball down the throats of their opponents. It doesn’t matter which running back they start. I could probably average at least three yards per carry for Kansas City (okay, maybe not). The Chiefs have won five straight games against the spread. I usually shy away from a streak this long, since Vegas usually figures out a team by now…but I’m still picking Kansas City.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Denver played great against New England last week. Brock Osweiler played like he was ready to step into Peyton Manning’s shoes. San Diego is horrible at home and they appear to already be packing it in. I’m taking Denver to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-9.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have played like trash the last few weeks, but the Patriots are losing guys week after week. Tom Brady is running out of options and he’s now passing to guys he doesn’t trust as much as Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. The Eagles are getting Sam Bradford back this week, so the offense should get a small jolt. The Patriots are too banged up for me to pick them to cover a near-double-digit spread. I’m taking the points.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Houston stopped Drew Brees from throwing a touchdown last week. Carolina should have similar success against him. The Panthers have played outstanding and I doubt the Saints can stop them. I’m taking Carolina to cover at the Superdome.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I need to admit that I’ve been ‘off’ on the Colts all season. I’m a huge Colts fan, but I’m a bit too critical of the team, so I’ve been betting against them a lot. Matt Hasselbeck has brought stability to the team after Andrew Luck’s injury. The Steelers are a different team when Big Ben plays (he was cleared to practice this week). I believe Antonio Brown will have a big game and the Steelers will cover at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-4.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
Tony Romo re-broke his collarbone on Thanksgiving and now the Dallas will have to once again trot out Matt Cassel as their starting quarterback. Washington has been playing a lot better recently, but you need to throw out a lot of information when picking NFC East games, weird stuff usually happens. Cowboys/Redskins games tend to be close and the underdog has won against the spread in many recent bouts. I think this game will be close, so I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 99-66-6
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob