I’m happy to report that there are only a couple double-digit point spreads this week. There were seven in the previous two week’s combined.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. Let’s hope my win percentage is near that this season.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2014 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
If Branden Albert didn’t suffer a horrible knee injury, I would bet the house on Miami. I still think they will cover, but Buffalo’s pass rush is a real threat. It will take a lot of effort to keep Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes off Ryan Tannehill’s back. On the other side of the ball, Miami has their own defensive weapons. Cameron Wake and Brent Grimes should be able to cause Kyle Orton to turn the ball over a few times.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was wrong about Josh McCown last week. I thought switching from Mike Glennon to him was a downgrade. I had no reason to think otherwise. He wasn’t productive early in the season. He appears to now have a chemistry with Mike Evans. Every quarterback should hope to have chemistry with a player like him. Tampa’s rushing attack is broke right now, so McCown will need to use the passing attack as an extension. I expect Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be targeted more. Also, I don’t have any faith in Robert Griffin III, so I’m taking the points.
Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (+10) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Picking Denver seems pretty automatic, but remember how St. Louis loves trick plays. They use trick plays to make up for their lack of talent on offense. This is just a bad matchup. Denver will carve up the Rams.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
You can’t forget how bad Cincinnati got spanked by Cleveland at home last Thursday…and the Bengals are a great home team. They have struggled on the road and this is the wrong time to be traveling to New Orleans. The Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS since their bye week. Give me the Saints to cover.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
I thought the Giants had a shot to hang with Seattle. I was dead wrong. Marshawn Lynch, Christine Michael and Russell Wilson just beat them down on the ground. I expect a lot of the same this weekend. Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and Colin Kaepernick will use the same blueprint Seattle used to beat New York. The Niners will cover on the road.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The madness must end at some point, right? Chicago has given up 106 points in the last two games. That’s insane! Green Bay and New England are two of the three best offenses in the NFL, but nearly 80% of those points were scored in the first-half of those games. I expect Chicago to play if safe and take what Minnesota’s offense gives them. Cutler will have the handcuffs on. The Bears will bounce back and barely cover at home.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – My pick is Houston Texans
Cleveland has been underrated all year. They are 5-2-2 ATS and are coming off a big win in Cincinnati. It’s really hard to not pick them, but I believe in Ryan Mallett. He will start in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was benched after the loss to Philly. He had the bye week to get his feet wet. He has a big arm and should be able to get the passing game going. I expect a lot of fight out of Houston, so I’m taking the points.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Yuck. I would rather watch Andy Reid shave his back than watch this game. Carolina and Atlanta have both been underwhelming and frustrating. You see the talent, but it doesn’t translate on the field. I’m passing on Cam Newton and going with Matt Ryan at the Falcons.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS and face one of the most over-hyped, poor road teams. Seattle appeared to get a lot of things right against the Giants last week, but Kansas City’s run defense isn’t as poor. Seattle will need to move the ball in the air to beat Kansas City. I don’t see them being that productive. Weird things happen in Arrowhead and I smell a cover.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
I feel bad for Oakland fans. The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football and half the Raiders appears to have quit (I’m looking at you, Darren McFadden). San Diego is coming off a bye and will be prepared. I’m picking a double-digit point spread cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-6) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is red hot. They 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They had dominating victories against a few playoff teams from a season ago. Green Bay’s defense will have issues with Philly’s pace of play, but it’s supposed to be a bit chilly at Lambeau. It could slow it down a tick. I’m not a fan of Mark Sanchez when the temperature is under 40 degrees.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals were dealt a huge blow when Carson Palmer tore his ACL last week. Drew Stanton will start in his place and Arizona shouldn’t miss a beat. He started a few games earlier this season with success. I’m excited to watch this game. Any game that has Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald sharing a field, I’m watching that damn game! I’m curious to see how the Honey Badger and Patrick Peterson handle Megatron. They did a great job on Dez Bryant two weeks ago. I’m picking Arizona to cover at home.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Colts have been great this year. Andrew Luck has cemented his status as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. I want to pick them, but I don’t think they have anyone to stop Rob Gronkowski. LaRon Landry is back from suspension, but Sergio Brown may have taken the starting job from him while he was out. Tom Brady seems to win games like this against the Colts. I think he’ll do it again late Sunday night.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m sure Tennessee fans will be excited to have Monday Night Football in town, but they won’t like the outcome. Rookie Zach Mettenberger will be overwhelmed by Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers to teach the rookie a lesson. They will cover on the road.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob