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2012 Big Ten Preview: Michigan State Spartans

Joe Pasquali, our resident college football analyst, is back with some more of Big Ten team previews. We are about halfway through the conference and the best is yet to come. Can head coach Mark Dantonio lead Michigan State to another double-digit win season?

Back-to-back 11 win seasons have made the football world take notice of the happenings in East Lansing, a school that for a long time played little brother to their state rivals in Ann Arbor. There are expectations for the Spartans to get to the next level, but I don’t see it happening this season. A tough schedule and key losses on both sides of the ball make me think they will just fall short of the Big Ten title game. The battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy (UM v MSU) should decide the Legends division.

Offense (B)

Kirk Cousins was one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and a great leader, replacing him will be the biggest obstacle in 2012 for Michigan State. Andrew Maxwell will take the reins for the Spartans, a junior who has had two years to study under Cousins. With only 57 career passes it doesn’t get much greener, but luckily he has a decent supporting cast. The offensive line was injury riddled last year, which means lots of younger players got experience. The line this year will be veteran and tough, a staple of Michigan State football. The star on offense will be running back LeVeon Bell who is primed for a huge year. The wide receiver core is absent of anyone who has caught a collegiate football before and could be a concern if defenses stock up against the rushing attack.

Defense (A)

The story for Michigan State last year was their stellar defense. The unit was ranked 6th nationally in yards allowed and recorded 44 sacks (7th in the nation). A key loss up front will be 2nd round draft pick Jerel Worthy who was a force up front at defensive tackle. William Gholston (DE) is a freak and my pick for Big Ten defensive player of the year. Behind him are two of the nation’s best linebackers in Denicos Allen and Chris Norman, both pre-season all conference picks. The secondary has three returning starters with the lone new player at free safety in Kurtis Drummond.

Special Teams (A-)

Dan Conroy enters his third year as kicker for Michigan State after putting together two solid seasons. He ranks first all time at Michigan State in field goal percentage, making 82% of his career kicks (32-39). Mike Sadler returns to do the punting duties for the second year. As a redshirt freshman he averaged a very respectable 41.1 yards per punt.

Coaching (A)

Mike Dantonio is coming off of two great years at Michigan State and is bringing in some of the best defensive talent they have seen in East Lansing. This season will depend on offensive coordinator Dan Roushar and if he can get new QB Andrew Maxwell to lead his team to another Big Ten title game.

2012 Win/Loss Prediction: 9-3 (2nd in Legends)

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2010 NCAA Football – Week 3 Betting Picks

I went 9-3 last week against the spread and I’m feeling pretty good about Week 3. There are a lot of dud games out there, but there are some with good value that you should look at. It’s looking like a week where a lot of favorites may not cover. Which teams did I pick? Check out this my NCAA football picks against the spread for Week 3 of the 2010 season.

Northern Illinois (+8) at Illinois (-8) – My pick is Illinois

Neither of these teams look very good so far this year, but I will take a tested Illini team over Northern Illinois. Illinois did get beat in their first game against Missouri, but came back with a strong effort against Southern Illinois. Northern Illinois lost for a weak Iowa State team in Week 1 and came back to win a close game against North Dakota, a team they should have smoked.

Iowa State (+4) at Kansas State (-4) – My pick is Kansas State

The game is listed as a “neutral site,” but it is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, it’s basically a home game for Kansas State. KSU already has a home win over UCLA, though a bit ugly, they still pulled it out. Iowa State’s victory came against Northern Illinois and followed that by getting smoked by Iowa. Bill Snyder is back going KSU, the team will improve as the season goes on.

Arkansas (+2.5) at Georgia (-2.5) – My pick is Arkansas

Arkansas has yet to be tested this year…and they will get their test on Saturday at Georgia. Ryan Mallett will need a big game to keep his stock high, I believe he does that over the Bulldogs.

Hawaii (+11) at Colorado (-11) – My pick is Hawaii

Hawaii is coming off a weak win over Army and Colorado limps into this contest by losing to Cal 52-7. Hawaii held their own against USC for most of the game and proved that they can compete on the mainland. The Rainbow Warriors are 2-0 against the spread so far this season and will win against it again this week.

Nebraska (-3.5) at Washington (+3.5) – My pick is Nebraska

This will be a very far away game for Nebraska to play, but I’m sure Cornhusker fans will still make it there. Sportsbook.com has Nebraska projected 10 point favorites, so this line seems quite low, so expect this to get higher as the week progresses. Nebraska looked good against small programs so far this year and Washington comes in 1-1 with a win against Syracuse and a loss at BYU. Nebraska will cover, but if line gets close to 6, stay away, it will still be a contest.

Toledo (+4.5) at Western Michigan (-4.5) – My pick is Western Michigan

Western Michgan beat Toledo last season 58-26 with a balanced offensive attack. Both teams come into this contest with 1-1 records, both losing to a major program. Toledo’s offense hasn’t looked good this season and their defense is even worse. Western Michigan has used their passing attack this season and is only averaging 100 yards on the ground. WMU will win this game and cover easily.

Notre Dame (13.5) at Michigan State (-3.5) – My pick is Notre Dame

Notre Dame was an injury to Dayne Crist away from beating Michigan last week. If Crist didn’t miss a substantial portion of that game, the Irish could be sitting at 2-0. Michigan State hasn’t played any elite talent yet and Notre Dame has already played two other Big Ten teams this season. The Spartans are weak against the pass and that is what Notre Dame has excelled at this season. The Irish will win against the spread AND win the game in East Lansing.

Boise State (-24) at Wyoming (+24) – My pick is Wyoming

Let me start by saying that Wyoming has very little hope in winning this game. Boise State will come into this game with something to prove, but Wyoming’s defense is stout and will cause them problems. I rode Wyoming all season last year and they did very well against the spread, you can get good value with them. BSU will win, but not by 24 points.

Iowa (-2) at Arizona (+2) – My pick is Iowa

This line has a possibility of moving towards Arizona, since the game is at home and Iowa has trouble on the road at times. Both teams have played very well this season, but Iowa has played better competition. The Big Ten is stronger than the Pac-10 this season and I’ll go with Iowa to cover and win outright.

Utah (-23.5) at New Mexico (+23.5) – My pick is Utah

New Mexico has been outscore 124-17 in their first two games. Utah has a win against, then top-25 ranked Pitt. Utah will win this game…BIG.

Texas (-3) at Texas Tech (+3) – My pick is Texas

The Longhorns and Red Raiders are more equal this year than ever. Texas lost a lot of talent in the draft and the Red Raiders are playing more balanced football, since Mike Leach is no longer there. Tech hasn’t played much talent this season and UT has played an improved Rice & Wyoming teams. Even though the game is in Lubbock, the Longhorns will come out winners and cover the spread. (Michael Crabtree isn’t walking through that door)

Middle Tennessee State (-6) at Memphis (+6) – My pick is MTSU

MTSU went 10-3 last season and even beat Souther Miss in a bowl game. Memphis has been a weak football school and only won two games last year. MTSU has looked strong early this season with a close loss against Minnesota and a routing of Austin Peay. Memphis has been routed by Mississippi State and East Carolina so far and should get routed again, this time by MTSU of the Sun Belt Conference.

These picks are for entertainment purposes.

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Big Ten Preview: Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State has been very streaky the last few seasons and that did not change last year. They started great, but then hit a wall. Mark Dantonio has a tough task ahead, have they found pieces to replace Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer on offense? Joe Pasquali is here to breakdown Michigan State in this part of the Big Ten Preview.

Finishing T-#4 in the Big Ten
Michigan State Spartans (Predicted finish 8-4)

Summary– It’s a somewhat put up or shut up year for the Spartans, and I think they will put up. I know that sounds weird since I am predicting them for 8 wins, but they will have to earn ALL nine of them. Games at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Illinois, along with welcoming Iowa and Penn State to East Lansing should make a tough year for MSU. It is nice they have so many returning starters, but anytime you got a new QB at the helm a projected 8-4 year can easily become a 6-6 one.

Offense (B-)– Brian Hoyer was no Drew Stanton, but it was nice he knew the offense and managed games fairly well. Handing the ball off to Javon Ringer was mainly his job last season, and he did that pretty well. Ringer will be THE most missed offensive player in the Big Ten this season. He carried MSU on his back last year, rushing for 1637 yards and 22 touchdowns. Should be more of a running back by committee year for the Spartans, which is not always a bad thing.

Defense (A-)– This will be the best Michigan State defense the country has seen in a LONG time. Not usually known for a dominating D, MSU should surprise plenty of fans but few coaches this year. Greg Jones will be a finalist for Big Ten defensive player of the year and should strike fear into opposing offenses. Along with him, Michigan State 8 starters from a defense that ranked in the top half of the nation last year.

Special Teams (A)– Brett Swenson and Aaron Bates are the best kicker/punter tandem in the conference. Swenson was 22-28 on field goals last year, including 6-7 between 40-49 yards.

Coaching (B)– Mark Dantonio is one of the up and coming coaches in the conference and seems to have the Spartans heading in the right direction. I would have given him a higher grade, but 2009 should be tough. We’ll see how he handles it.

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