I went 15-10 against the spread in Week 3 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
The game of the week is the Georgia Bulldogs travelling to Alabama to play the Tide. It’s the first big game for the Tide without former head coach Nick Saban.
Can USC rebound from last week’s loss at Michigan and cover a double-digit point spread versus Wisconsin?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 5 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (September 28th, 2024).
Washington at Rutgers (-2.5) – My pick is Washington Huskies +2.5
The Washington Huskies (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bad 24-5 home win over Northwestern, which covered the twelve-point spread. The Huskies were never in trouble the entire game. Northwestern’s passing attack was putrid and Washington QB Will Rogers was fantastic in the lopsided win.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 road win over Virginia Tech, which covered as the underdog. Rutgers rushing attack is impressive, and should do well in Big Ten play. Their defense showed signs of weakness since Va Tech was able to amass yards on the ground as well.
I’m expecting Washington’s first big Big Ten road trip to be a close contest. Rutgers are no longer a doormat in the Big Ten with head coach Greg Schiano resurrecting the program again. Washington still has too many weapons left from last year’s elite squad. I am expecting Washington to possibly win this game outright, so I’m taking the points.
Maryland at Indiana (-7) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -7
The Maryland Terrapins (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-20 home win over Villanova, which was a few points short of a cover. Maryland QB Billy Edwards Jr. has shown promise in the Terrapins pass-heavy offense. He was near-perfect against ‘Nova and I’m curious to see how he will fare against some tough Big Ten defenses.
The Indiana Hoosiers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 52-14 home win over Charlotte, which covered the -28.5 point spread. It’s clear that new head coach Curt Cignetti will not let off the gas, no matter the opponent. The Hoosiers haven’t put up crooked numbers in many years, so he has instantly made a difference. The game was close at halftime, but the Hoosiers wore them down with a non-stop rushing attack.
I don’t see this game being that close. I just trust Cignetti’s offense, as they stay on the field and score touchdowns. I think they will do well against some of the top teams in the conference this year. I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover at home.
Kentucky at Ole Miss (-17.5) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats +17.5
The Kentucky Wildcats (2-2, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-6 home win over Ohio, which easily covered the -21.5 spread. QB Brock Vandagriff was smart with the ball, but the backfield and defense scored all the points. There’s not much to gather from the win other than the outcome was what it should have been.
The Mississippi Rebels (4-0, 4-0 ATS) are 52-13 home win over Georgia Southern, which barely covered the -35.5 point spread. It was the first time Ole Miss gave up double-digit points, but the game was in control soon after kickoff. QB Jaxson Dart has been fantastic so far against low-level talent.
I think Mississippi is one of the best teams in the country, but Kentucky has held their own against the top teams in the SEC in recent years. I don’t think Kentucky will be close to winning this game, but I’m betting on a garbage time touchdown to get within the spread, so give me the points.
Louisville at Notre Dame (-6) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6
The Louisville Cardinals (3-0, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 31-19 home win over Georgia Tech, which covered the -9.5 spread. QB Tyler Shough should continue to put up solid numbers as he gets more snaps in this pass-heavy offense. He’s already being smart with the ball as he has thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions through three games. I do worry about their defense as Georgia Tech was able to throw on them (312 yards).
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 28-3 home win over Miami (OH), which failed to cover the -27 point spread. I don’t think the outcome is surprising as Miami (OH) has a good defense, but the non-cover looks bad since they are 0-3 against decent competition. QB Riley Leonard showed off some dual threat skills by busting out a 50-yard touchdown run. On defense, they were great across the board.
I was on the fence with this pick, but I think this game will be won and lost in the air. Louisville’s pass defense looked beatable against Georgia Tech, so Leonard may be in line for another big game. The Cardinals still need another year to get the athletes to best run the new offense, and will be dangerous once that happens. I’m taking Notre Dame to cover at home.
Georgia at Alabama (+2.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5
The Georgia Bulldogs (3-0, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week and failed to cover in their most recent game against Kentucky. The 13-12 win over Kentucky was due to the Wildcats playing great defense, and it was a little bit of a trap game for the Bulldogs. Georgia fans have been disappointed in transfer RB Trevor Etienne, who has yet to eclipse 100 yards in a game.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are also coming off a bye, and covered against Wisconsin in their most recent game. The Kalen DeBoer Era has gotten off to a great start so far, but this is his first true test. QB Jalen Milroe is being smart with the ball and his numbers have been fantastic.
I expect this game to be fun to watch, and Alabama comes in underrated. I can’t unsee how milquetoast Georgia’s offense looked against Kentucky. I loved what DeBoer did in Washington and he could come out of his first big game with an outright win, so I’m taking the points.
Wisconsin at USC (-16) – My pick is USC Trojans -16
The Wisconsin Badgers (2-1, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and failed to cover against the spread against Alabama in their most recent game. The Badgers lost starting QB Tyler Van Dyke (knee) for the season, so they will rely on QB Braedyn Locke going forward. He had some success in limited time last season. I didn’t love Van Dyke, but his big arm made defenses respect the pass.
The USC Trojans (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road loss to Michigan, which failed to cover the spread as the favorite. The Wolverines came after them with an impressive rushing attack after switching to QB Alex Orji. USC QB Miller Moss may have racked up yards, but you won’t be able to beat Michigan if you only complete 28 passes on 51 attempts.
The Trojans ran into a gimmicky running game that they clearly weren’t ready for last week. Michigan may have lost defensive talent to the NFL Draft, but they still had enough left to cause Moss issues. I don’t see him having the same trouble against Wisconsin. I also worry about Wisconsin’s ability to put up points, so I’m taking USC to cover.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M (-4.5) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-14 road win over Auburn, which covered against the spread as the underdog. The Razorbacks are an improved squad and wore down the Tigers. They didn’t break any big runs, but their two-headed rushing attack (QB Taylen Green & RB Ja’Quinden Jackson) managed to extend drives and convert on third down.
The Texas A&M (3-1, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 26-20 home win over Bowling Green, which failed to cover the -21 spread. It was an underwhelming outcome for the Aggies. I realize Bowling Green may be one of the better MAC teams, but A&M should have covered in that game. Their one cover on the year was at Florida, but I’m not sold on the Gators being good right now.
Arkansas comes into this game underrated and should be able to run against the Aggies. A&M needs another recruiting class to help new head coach Mike Elko’s vision for the team. I’m taking the points in this neutral site game.
Oklahoma at Auburn (+1) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners -1
The Oklahoma Sooners (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 25-15 home loss to Tennessee, which was a few points shy versus the spread, The one big negative was the play of QB Jackson Arnold, which caused him to be benched. Backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. made the final score respectable. They also struggled on the ground only gaining 36 yards on 34 attempts…yikes.
The Auburn Tigers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-14 home loss to Arkansas, which failed to cover the spread as the favorite. They have now lost to both Power Four teams they’ve faced this year. They are dealing with their own quarterback situation as they benched QB Payton Thorne in the loss. It also appears that the starting job is more fluid and possible timeshare going forward.
There is a lot going on in Auburn and head coach Hugh Freeze’s tenure could be a short one. I’m more comfortable with Oklahoma’s coaching situation, and their quarterback situation isn’t as messy. I’m taking Oklahoma to cover on the road.
Ohio State at Michigan State (+23.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes -23.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 49-14 home win against Marshall, which failed to cover the bloated 40-point spread. Transfer QB Will Howard has been as advertised and is being smart with the ball. I’ve been impressed with his backfield and think they will have success against Big Ten talent.
The Michigan State Spartans (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 23-19 road loss against Boston College, which barely won against the spread. You can point the finger at QB Aidan Chiles, who threw three interceptions, no touchdowns and completed less than 50% of his attempts. He appears to not be ready to face above-average teams.
I lived in Columbus, Ohio for a handful of years, so I’m aware of the Michigan State lore. It doesn’t matter how good or bad Michigan State is, they’ve historically played Ohio State tough. I was initially scared of the large point spread, but Chiles is going to have so much trouble against the Buckeyes. I’m taking Ohio State to cover on the road.
Old Dominion at Bowling Green (-8.5) – My pick is Bowling Green Falcons -8.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Old Dominion Monarchs (0-3, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 37-17 home loss to Virginia Tech, which barely failed to cover against the spread. They’ve been playing solid talent as they recently had a closer loss against South Carolina. The biggest issue for Old Dominion is their offensive efficiency. They are near the worst teams in the league only averaging 295 total yards per game.
The Bowling Green Falcons (1-2, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 26-20 road loss to Texas A&M, which easily covered the +21 point spread. They’ve played a tough schedule with games against the Aggies and Penn State so far this year. They are one of the better MAC teams and should compete for the championship. QB Connor Bazelak seems like he’s in his tenth year in college, as the Falcons are his third school.
Both of these teams didn’t go the easy route with their non-conference schedule, but Bowling Green was much more impressive against solid Power Four schools. Bowling Green’s defense should be able to handle the inept Old Dominion offense, so I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
*Nebraska at Purdue (+10) – My pick is Nebraska -10
*Navy at UAB (+3.5) – My pick is Navy -3.5
*Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-5) – My pick is Oklahoma State +5
*Arizona at Utah (-11) – My pick is Arizona +11
*Air Force at Wyoming (+4) – My pick is Air Force -4
*Washington State at Boise State (-8) – My pick is Washington State +8
*Louisiana at Wake Forest (-3.5) – My pick is Wake Forest -3.5
*Minnesota at Michigan (-9) – My pick is Michigan -9
*Colorado at UCF (-14) – My pick is Colorado +14
*Cincinnati at Texas Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati +2.5
BONUS PICKS!
*Buffalo at UConn (-6.5) – My pick is Buffalo +6.5
*Ball State at James Madison (-20.5) – My pick is JMU -20.5
*Western Michigan at Marshall (-3) – My pick is Marshall -3
*Liberty at Appalachian State (+3.5) – My pick is Liberty -3.5
*Louisiana Monroe at Troy (-7) – My pick is Troy -7
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 55-44-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob