I went 13-12 against the spread in Week 3 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
We have two big marquee games this weekend. USC travels to Michigan to start their Big Ten conference schedule, and Tennessee travels to Oklahoma for the start of the Sooners era in the SEC.
How will the teams fare in their new conferences this season?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 4 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (September 21st, 2024).
Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks +2.5
The Kansas Jayhawks (1-2, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a bad 23-20 home loss to UNLV, which was far from the point spread as the favorite. It’s been a rough year for the Jayhawks through Week 3. The duo of QB Jalon Daniels and & RB Devin Neal needs a few more superheroes on their team. Their defense couldn’t get off the field on third-down against the Rebels.
The West Virginia Mountaineers (1-2, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 38-34 loss at Pittsburgh, which didn’t cover the spread as the favorite. WVU didn’t have an answer for Pitt QB Eli Holstein, as he was able to throw three touchdowns and 300+ yards, with another 59 yards on the ground. The Mountaineers were trying to run the ball (4.18 ypc), but it’s hard to continue long drives if you struggle to throw the ball on third-downs.
If Kansas can come in with a similar gameplan as Pitt, they should win against the spread, and possible win outright. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is a great athlete, and if West Virginia couldn’t stop Pitt’s Holstein, they will have trouble with Daniels. I’m taking the points in this game.
USC at Michigan (+6.5) – My pick is USC Trojans -4.5
The USC Trojans (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 48-0 home win over Utah State, which covered the 31-point spread. USC QB Miller Moss looks like a prototypical, pro-style ‘USC Quarterback’ with all the arm talent in the world. There’s not much someone can take away from their win versus Utah State, but if you watched the previous win over LSU, you know what I’m talking about. On defense, they are much better than their previous two squads which gave up too many fast drives.
The Michigan Wolverines (2-1, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-18 home win over Arkansas State. Michigan lost a ton of talent with the NFL Draft and coaching talent when former head coach Jim Harbaugh took them to Los Angeles. It’s clear that the new staff’s decision to start QB David Warren over backup QB Alex Orji was a mistake. They announced that Orji will be the new starter going forward. Also, RB Donovan Edwards hasn’t been as advertised this year.
In a perfect world, Michigan wouldn’t have wanted their first Big Ten opponent to be USC, especially in a transition year. I’m sure the Wolverines will be pumped for this contest, but Michigan’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. Is Orji the magic pill they need? I don’t think so, but it’s a move in the right direction. I have to take the Trojans to cover in the Big House.
Arkansas at Auburn (-2.5) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 37-27 home win over UAB, which was 12 points shy of the point spread. It was looking like a disastrous day against UAB, as they were down 17-3 in the second quarter. They were methodical and didn’t stray from their gameplan of running the ball. They chipped away at the lead and took control of the game in the fourth quarter. The Razorbacks are best when they can keep feeding their backfield.
The Auburn Tigers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-19 home win over New Mexico, which was a few points over the betting line for a win. It was a nice game to get the bad taste out of their mouths after an outright upset home loss to Cal the week before. It was a competitive game at halftime, but Auburn’s depth wore down the Lobos in the second-half. They were gaining huge chunks of yards on the ground at that point.
The Razorbacks come into this game underrated after falling down against UAB. They put a scare in bettors and the betting line reflects that. I think they should be able to run the ball, and stop the run, against Auburn. I’m taking the points in this game.
Utah at Oklahoma State (-2.5) – My pick is Utah Utes +2.5
The Utah Utes (3-0, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-21 road win over Utah State, which fell a field goal short of the point spread. They were without QB Cam Rising in the win, which no doubt affecting the betting outcome. I don’t want to bash backup QB Isaac Wilson, but he’s just not in the same league as a healthy Rising. You could see if after Rising was injured against Baylor.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-10 road win over Tulsa, which easily covered the spread. OSU got out to a huge lead and they rested QB Alan Bowman for a large chunk of the second-half. It was a nice change as the Cowboys struggled early in their overtime win over Arkansas.
I’m going into this game thinking Rising will be able to play, even if he’s 70%, it’s an upgrade over his replacement. Oklahoma State’s defense is still rather bad against the pass. If Rising plays near his normal level, I’m taking the points, and an outright win isn’t out of the question.
Tennessee at Oklahoma (+6.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers -6.5
The Tennessee Volunteers (3-0, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 71-0 home win over Kent State, which easily covered the 49.5-point spread. Tennessee has played low-level talent thus far, but none of their large betting lines have been close. They aren’t playing down to their opponent’s level, which is what you want to see from a top program.
The Oklahoma Sooners (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-19 home win over Tulane, which covered the spread by a few points. Dual threat QB Jackson Arnold has been great playmaker so far, but I worry how he will perform against a great defense. I expected better overall numbers in his last two outings against lower talent.
This game should be fun to watch, but I think Tennessee has the edge with most position match-ups. I’m not sold on OU QB Arnold’s throwing ability against the Vols defense. That is the thing that tilts my pick towards Tennessee.
Baylor at Colorado (-1.5) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes -1.5
The Baylor Bears (2-1, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 31-3 home win over Air Force, which easily covered the 17-point spread. It was a nice bounce-back from their 23-12 loss at Utah the week before. They are a better overall team than last year, but it could be a long season for them against above-average Big 12 teams.
The Colorado Buffaloes (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 28-9 road win over Colorado State, which covered the 7-5 point spread. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders had his best game of the season throwing by 310 yards and four touchdown passes. He spammed the ball to start WR/CB Travis Hunter, who caught 13 passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns (and an interception). Their defense played pretty good, but Colorado State is not a good team, at all, so lower the temperature on the win.
I expect a high-scoring game in Boulder, CO on Saturday. I do believe Baylor is a better overall team this season, but their pass defense is not very good. Colorado can exploit that by having Sanders, their biggest asset, extend an early lead and cover at home.
Iowa at Minnesota (+2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Golden Gophers +2.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-21 home win over Troy, which fell short of the 24-point spread. The fact that the Trojans scored 21 points (even if one was a kickoff return), shocked me. It’s a clue that Iowa’s defense many not be as strong as in previous years. The Hawkeyes needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to secure the win.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 2-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-0 home win over Nevada which covered the point-spread by double-digits. It was their second shutout in-a-row since their opening week 19-17 loss to North Carolina. It’s hard to know what to take from those shutouts, since they were against Nevada and Rhode Island. I have liked what I saw from their defense, even in their loss against North Carolina.
I don’t see either of these teams competing for a Big Ten title, but they should both should end up in bowl games this year. Iowa’s offense still isn’t up to the same level as nearly every other Big Ten school, and I don’t see their defense being good enough to win games by themselves. This game could be a bit ugly, so I’m taking the points.
Northwestern at Washington (-10.5) – My pick is Washington Huskies -10.5
The Northwestern Wildcats (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 home win over Eastern Illinois, which was a couple points shy of covering the spread. Northwestern’s offense isn’t going to be pretty this year. They will need to win low-scoring games, because their calling card is their defense. They need to feed the ball to RB Cam Porter, because QB Mike Wright isn’t good enough to compete in a shootout.
The Washington Huskies (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 24-19 loss against Washington State. They just had too many drives end in field goals in the second-half. QB Will Rogers didn’t have a bad game, but he needs to do better on third-down. Their defense isn’t great enough to overcome the offense ending drives with field goals.
The Huskies know they left too many points on the table last week, so they will be smarter against Northwestern. I have faith they have worked on plays they plan to use on their side of the field. If Washington puts up 30+ points, they should cover this spread at home.
Georgia Tech at Louisville (-10.5) – My pick is Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 59-7 home win over VMI, which covered the large point spread. It was a nice bounce-back from the previous game’s loss to Syracuse. QB Haynes Kings is super talented and Georgia Tech should be among the better teams in the ACC this year.
The Louisville Cardinals (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming of a 49-14 home win against Jacksonville State, which easily covered the spread. They are now playing after a week of rest. The Cardinals haven’t played anyone of note, so I am extra curious about how they will fare against the meat of their schedule. QB Tyler Shough, who is in his sixth season, has a great arm and should do well in head coach Jeff Brohm’s system.
I believe Louisville is coming into this game a little overrated. They haven’t played anyone of note, but people are still not sold on Georgia Tech. There are too many unknowns in this contest, so I’m taking the points.
Northern Iowa at Hawai’i (-7.5) – My pick is Northern Iowa Panthers +7.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Northern Iowa Panthers (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-3 road loss against Nebraska, which was shy of the point spread. They weren’t up to the task to face a Power 4 team as good as Nebraska. QB Aidan Dunne should have a good season in the FCS, but his team was too outmatched in the loss.
The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-13 road loss to Sam Houston State, which wasn’t close to the point spread. I don’t know if QB Brayden Schager is an accurate enough quarterback to play in such a pass-heavy offense. You can’t complete 50% of your passes and throw as many interceptions as touchdowns in Hawai’i’s offense.
This pick is solely based on the quarterback talent of each team, and I think NIU QB Aidan Dunne is better than any quarterback on Hawai’i’s depth chart. The Rainbow Warriors may eek out an outright win, but I think the Panthers will keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Charlotte at Indiana (-28.5) – My pick is Indiana
Fresno State at New Mexico (+13.5) – My pick is Fresno State
Purdue at Oregon State (-4.5) – My pick is Oregon State
Tulane at Louisiana (+2.5) – My pick is Tulane
Florida at Mississippi State (+6.5) – My pick is Mississippi State
Virginia at Coastal Carolina (+3.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Kent State at Penn State (-49.5) – My pick is Kent State
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (-3.5) – My pick is Rutgers
East Carolina at Liberty (-6.5) – My pick is Liberty
Bowling Green at Texas A&M (-22.5) – My pick is Bowling Green
BONUS PICKS!
FAU at UConn (-1.5) – My pick is Florida Atlantic
Illinois at Nebraska (-7.5) – My pick is Nebraska
Houston at Cincinnati (-3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati
Rice at Army (-6.5) – My pick is Army
Arkansas State at Iowa State (-21.5) – My pick is Arkansas State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 40-34-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob