Last week, I went 13-11-1 against the spread during Week 12 of the college football season.
We have some big rivalry games this week. The Michigan vs Ohio State game will get all the oxygen this week, but there are some big games over Friday and Saturday this week.
Will Texas A&M sneak up on LSU on Saturday?
Will Bo Nix ruin my weekend (again)?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 13 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (November 26th, 2022).
Michigan at Ohio State (-8) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan Wolverines are 11-0 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-17 home win over Illinois. They nearly fell in a quintessential trap game. The Illini aren’t a bad team and the Wolverines got caught overlooking them. They needed three field goals in the fourth quarter to seal the win. Michigan’s defense held their own late in the game, but I was surprised that Illinois RB Chase Brown racked up 140 yards on the ground.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are 11-0 outright and 5-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 43-30 road win over Maryland. OSU also needed a big fourth quarter to secure the win. Maryland had a chance to win with the ball in the final minute, but the Buckeyes were able to force a fumble and scored a defensive touchdown with no time left on the clock.
Both of these perfect teams survived tests last week and survived. Ohio State’s defense will be tested in this game. It’s by far their biggest flaw the last couple year. They will need their offense to racked up a sizeable amount of points against Michigan’s top-rated defense. Weird stuff usually happens when Ohio State and Michigan meet, so anything is possible. Ohio State may squeak out a win, but I don’t see that margin being over a touchdown, so I’m taking the points.
Oregon at Oregon State (+3) – My pick is Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks are 9-2 outright and 8-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 home win over Utah. It was an entertaining game to watch, but Utah QB Cameron Rising was the reason Oregon got the win. He threw three picks and and the offense didn’t score a touchdown (their lone touchdown was a defensive fumble touchdown). QB Bo Nix had a good first-half, but he whiffed at multiple chances to pull away in final half.
The Oregon State Beavers are 8-3 outright and 9-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-7 road win over Arizona State. It was their second-straight blowout win against a lower-tier conference foe. The Beavers have been able to take care of business against the basement dwellers of the Pac 12 and have a five-game winning streak against the spread.
I feel like I need to give a warning about my pick. I’ve been absolutely awful when picking a game with Bo Nix at quarterback. I would bet on him at Auburn and would shit the bed in those games…and on the flipside, he would play like Tom Brady in games I would bet against him. I think Oregon will cover on the road, but please, bet with caution.
LSU at Texas A&M (+10) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
The LSU Tigers are 9-2 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-10 home win over UAB. Most SEC teams schedule a gimme opponent before their rivalry game and the Blazers were that team for LSU. QB Jayden Daniels had a big game and he keeps getting better this year.
The Texas A&M Aggies are 4-7 outright and 3-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-3 home win over UMass. It was a far cry from the -33 point spread. They haven’t covered a game since October 8th against Alabama. A&M was a trendy team going into this season since they had such a big recruiting year, but it hasn’t translated to the field.
Next week, LSU faces Georgia in the SEC Championship game. This game is meaningless when it comes to the conference game, but they need this win if they hope to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. I think Texas A&M is good enough to sneak up on LSU if they overlook the Aggies. LSU will most likely get the win, but I’m going out on a limb and taking the points.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+13.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
The Tennessee Volunteers are 9-2 outright and 8-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 63-38 road loss to South Carolina. It killed all hopes of a College Football Playoff berth and starting QB Hendon Hooker tore his ACL during a non-contact event. We will see how the Volunteers will respond to that reality this week.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 5-6 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 31-24 home win over Florida. Vandy are on a little bit of a run after back-to-back SEC wins over Kentucky and Florida. Their defense is playing better, but have been awful against the better teams in the SEC.
Tennessee will turn to QB Joe Milton III, who has a huge arm. He was once a highly-touted recruit due to his size and throwing power. He had opportunities are Michigan and Tennessee to win the starting job, but he failed in both of those attempts. Vanderbilt’s pass defense is bad and Milton could have a big game to close out their regular season, so I’m taking the Vols to cover.
Notre Dame at USC (-4.5) – My pick is USC Trojans
The Notre Dame Fighting irish are 8-3 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 44-0 shutout home win over Boston College. The Irish got out to a big lead early in the win and just coasted in the second-half. Notre Dame’s offense struggled when QB Tyler Buchner first went down with a season-ending shoulder injury, but they’ve made adjustments and have improved over the last month.
The USC Trojans are 10-1 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-45 road win over UCLA. QB Caleb Williams threw for 470 yards and scored three total touchdowns in the win. WR Jordan Addison hasn’t been able to repeat the numbers he had in Pitt’s offense last season, but had an outstanding game (11 receptions for 178 yards) against the Bruins.
Notre Dame did beat Clemson earlier this month, but they’ve mostly just beat up on some low-level teams. I don’t think they have the talent on defense to deal with some studs on USC. I’m taking USC to cover at home.
Kansas at Kansas State (-11.5) – My pick is Kansas State Wildcats
The Kansas Jayhawks are 6-5 outright and 7-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 55-14 home loss to Texas. Texas RB Bijan Robinson averaged nearly ten points per carry on his way to a 243-yard, four touchdown game. The Jayhawks may have made some strides on offense, but their defense just doesn’t have the talent to stop Big 12 teams.
The Kansas State Wildcats are 8-3 outright and 7-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-31 road win over West Virginia. QB Will Howard has stepped in for often-injured QB Adrian Martinez and the offense even improved in his relief. I also want to give K-State’s defense some credit.
Kansas was such a great story during the first-half of the season, but they just don’t have the talent to deal with bowl-eligible Big 12 teams. Kansas State is the better overall team and should put up some crooked numbers on the Jayhawks, so I’m taking them to cover at home.
NC State at North Carolina (-6) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
The NC State Wolfpack are 7-4 outright and 3-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-10 road loss to Louisville. Their offense has taken a hit after QB Devin Leary went down with a season-ending pec injury. They have some talent on defense that has kept them in a lot of games. They even racked up wins against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest in the last month.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 9-2 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 21-17 home loss to Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels were 22-point favorites and were caught neglecting the Yellow Jackets. QB Drake Maye had his worst game of the season. He only connected on 16 of 30 passes for 202 yards and an interception.
I want to chalk up Maye’s poor performance as an aberration. NC State’s pass defense is their weakest attribute. The Wolfpack’s offense is not very good right now. They’re so average that the Tar Heel’s subpar defense should be able to fare well. I’m taking North Carolina to cover at home.
South Carolina at Clemson (-14.5) – My pick is South Carolina Gamecocks
The South Carolina Gamecocks are 7-4 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 63-38 home win over Tennessee. I’ve bashed QB Spencer Rattler a lot on this site and he made me eat my words against the Vols. He threw for 438 yards and six touchdowns. It was his best collegiate game, by far! He nearly doubled his season touchdown total in the win.
The Clemson Tigers are 10-1 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 40-10 home win over Miami (FL). QB D.J. Uiagalelei keeps coming back from the dead and putting up some solid games. I wrote him off after the Notre Dame loss, but he’s making smarter decisions than he was early this year. He’s not afraid to tuck it if no one is open.
I’ve been awful at picking games with Rattler and Uiagalelei in them. The three-headed monster of them and Nix keeps me up at night. I don’t think Clemson is two touchdowns better than South Carolina. I don’t see the Gamecocks repeating the numbers they put up against Tennessee, but they should keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Purdue at Indiana (+10.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-4 outright and 4-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-9 home win over Northwestern. I was expecting a better performance from Purdue’s passing game. QB Aidan O’Connell only had 159 yards through the air. I was a big fan of him last year and he hasn’t been the same since an early season injury. The accuracy hasn’t been there and he doesn’t have the same talent level at wide receiver.
The Indiana Hoosiers are 4-7 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 39-31 overtime road win over Michigan State. They went run-heavy as they only attempt seven passing attempts in the win. I was surprised that they had that much success with the run. They struggled to run the ball in all but a couple games this year. It was a bold move and it paid off.
Indiana’s run-heavy offensive gameplan could have success against Purdue. The Boilermakers have allowed some big games on the ground, but I don’t think they have the talent on defense to deal with Purdue. I think Purdue will cover in Bloomington.
Coastal Carolina at James Madison (-14.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 9-1 outright and 4-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 26-23 home win over Southern Miss. They lost starting QB Grayson McCall early this month and their offense took a big hit. McCall is accurate and has a career TD/Int ratio of 68 touchdowns to just six interceptions. It’s impossible to replace that kind of skills at quarterback.
The James Madison Dukes are 7-3 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 42-40 home win over Georgia State. James Madison were down 34-14 thanks to a pair of fumbles that were both taken back for defensive touchdowns. They started the second-half with 28 unanswered points, thanks to a failed two-point conversion, the Dukes secured the outright win.
The reason the Dukes are favored by 14.5 points is due to the injury to McCall. Backup QB Jarrett Guest is a huge step down in talent, but they have a good offensive line and I like their backfield. James Madison has been an underrated team this season, but the point spread is quite bloated in this game, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Illinois at Northwestern (+14.5) – My pick is Illinois
Utah at Colorado (+28.5) – My pick is Utah
Iowa State at TCU (-10) – My pick is Iowa State
Air Force at San Diego State (+1.5) – My pick is Air Force
Washington at Washington State (+1.5) – My pick is Washington
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (+1.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Tulane at Cincinnati (-1.5) – My pick is Tulane
Arkansas at Missouri (+3) – My pick is Arkansas
UCLA at California (+10) – My pick is UCLA
Old Dominion at South Alabama (-15.5) – My pick is Old Dominion
BONUS PICKS!
New Mexico State at Liberty (-24.5) – My pick is New Mexico State
Rutgers at Maryland (+14.5) – My pick is Rutgers
Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic (+7.5) – My pick is Western Kentucky
Rice at North Texas (-14) – My pick is North Texas
Kent State at Buffalo (-3.5) – My pick is Buffalo
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 162-133-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.