Last week, I went 13-12 against the spread during Week 10 of the college football season.
I’ve had a few near-.500 weeks in a row, but I’m feeling pretty damn good about this week’s slate of games.
This week lacks a huge marquee game, but there are still solid games on the schedule. I’m looking forward to TCU/Texas and Florida State/Syracuse.
Can Alabama rebound after last week’s tough loss and cover against Ole Miss?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (November 12th, 2022).
Missouri at Tennessee (-20.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
The Missouri Tigers are 4-5 outright and 5-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 21-17 home loss to Kentucky. Missouri was favored by a point, but their offense was flat until the fourth quarter. They will need their running game to show up more going forward.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 8-1 outright and 7-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 loss to Georgia. Tennessee couldn’t run the ball against Georgia and QB Hendon Hooker fell flat for most of the game. Georgia was a tall task, but I would have liked to have seen them keep it closer than two touchdowns.
Tennessee’s offense is potent and will put up crooked numbers against all but a few teams in the nation. The Volunteers will rebound and take care of business at home against Missouri, so I’ll take Tennessee to cover.
Purdue at Illinois (-6.5) – My pick is Illinois Fighting Illini
The Purdue Boilermakers are 5-4 outright and 3-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-3 home loss to Iowa. We all knew that Iowa’s defense is legit, but I thought Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell would be able to move the ball better. He failed to complete 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions.
The Illinois Fighting Illini is 7-2 outright and 6-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-15 home loss to Michigan State. It was an odd game as Illinois didn’t struggle putting up yards, but they stalled on too many drives. It was a disappointing outcome, but QB Tommy Devito impressed me a lot.
In 2021, Purdue was able to win close Big Ten games and show up as an underdog to win games against the spread. The Boilermakers don’t have the receiving talent on this team and that handcuffs O’Connell. I think Illinois will rebound and cover in Champaign.
LSU at Arkansas (+3) – My pick is LSU Tigers
The LSU Tigers are 7-2 outright and 6-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 32-31 overtime win over Alabama. It was a bold move to go for two in overtime and it paid off. LSU QB Jayden Daniels is turning into a star and this performance put him on the map with casual fans.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are 5-4 outright and 4-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 21-19 home loss to Liberty. The Razorbacks were caught overlooking Liberty and they suffered an outright loss. QB K.J. Jefferson can only do so much and his backfield failed him in that game.
I’m a big fan of what LSU is doing right now. It’s hard to bet against Jayden Daniels, even though I would love to bet against head coach Brian Kelly, but that would just be a spite bet. I’m taking LSU to cover on the road.
Alabama at Ole Miss (+11.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama Crimson Tide are 7-2 outright and 5-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 32-21 overtime road loss against LSU. They were out-coached by Brian Kelly, who gambled on a two-point conversion to win the game. Alabama’s run defense is usually consistent as hell, but they bent a little too much last Saturday.
The Ole Miss Rebels are 8-1 outright and 3-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, they beat Texas A&M 31-28. RB Quinshon Judkins had the best game of his young career, as he rushed for 205 yards on a whopping 34 carries for the Rebels.
I like both of these teams, but Alabama should rebound after losing two of their last three games. I’m taking Alabama to cover on the road.
Louisville at Clemson (-7) – My pick is Louisville Cardinals
The Louisville Cardinals are 6-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 34-10 home win over James Madison. They started the year off losing three of their first five games, but are now on a four-game winning streak (4-0 ATS). Louisville’s defense is a huge part of this turnaround.
The Clemson Tigers are 8-1 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-14 road loss to Notre Dame. Early in the first quarter, the Irish sucked the life out of the stadium when they blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown. Clemson’s offense didn’t wake up until the fourth quarter. It was a bad game and I think QB D.J. Uiagalelei could end up transferring away after this season.
I’m loving Louisville right now and Clemson is way too inconsistent for me. The Cardinals defense should be a big problem for Uiagalelei on Saturday. I’m taking the points.
UCF at Tulane (-1.5) – My pick is UCF Knights
The UCF Knights are 7-2 outright and 6-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-28 road win at Memphis. QB John Rhys Plumlee (undisclosed injury) was a game-time decision, but wasn’t healthy enough to suit up. UCF was able to take care of business with backup QB Mikey Keene. They cranked up their running game to help pick up the slack.
The Tulane Green Wave are 8-1 outright and have the same impressive record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 road win over Tulsa. They’ve been easily covering games this season. They have a good (not great) offense and their defense is among the best in the conference. Vegas keeps raising the point spreads, but Tulane has been able to cover all but one this season.
Tulane has been a nice story, but I don’t think they can hang with UCF. It looks like Plumlee will most likely play in this game. It will take a huge effort from Tulane’s defense to stymy UCF. I’m taking UCF to cover on Saturday.
Iowa State at Oklahoma State (+1.5) – My pick is Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State Cyclones are 4-5 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-14 home win over West Virginia. It was their first outright win since September 17th. They’ve played a crazy schedule that saw them play the best teams in the Big 12, all in a row. Iowa State is a better team than their record.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 6-3 outright and 5-4 against the spread. They’ve had a pair of awful games since beating Texas. They were shutout by Kansas State, and last week, they were beaten 37-16 by Kansas. True freshman QB Garrett Rangel started for injured Spencer Sanders. It’s unknown who will be the quarterback for this week’s game.
Oklahoma State has been a horrid team the last two weeks. They have question marks at quarterback and Iowa State is an underrated team. I have to take the Cyclones in this game.
Georgia at Mississippi State (+16.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs are 9-0 outright and 5-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 home win over Tennessee. I thought the Vols had a shot of the upset win, but Georgia just showed why they are the absolute best team in the nation.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 6-3 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 39-33 overtime win over Auburn. I’m sure you’re tired of me slobbering over QB Will Rogers, but he’s very good for Mike Leach’s offense. He struggled against the better teams in the SEC, and this week he faces the best of them all.
Georgia continues to impress me. I can’t say enough good words about the entire squad. I don’t see this spread being a huge problem for Georgia, so I’m taking them to cover.
TCU at Texas (-7.5) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU Horned Frogs are 9-0 outright and 7-1-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-24 home win over Texas Tech. TCU’s balanced offense can be tricky to defend. QB Max Duggan isn’t the most accurate passer, but he can lean on RB Kendre Miller when he’s struggling during the drive.
The Texas Longhorns are 6-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 34-27 road win over Kansas State. KSU QB Adrian Martinez tried to complete the comeback, but ran out of time. The Longhorns’ pass defense is among the worst in the nation and they nearly allowed Martinez to come back from 21 points.
The key to this game will be if Texas can stop Duggan’s arm. This could be a shoot-out and I like TCU in those games, so I’m taking the points.
North Texas at UAB (-5.5) – My pick is North Texas Mean Green
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The North Texas Mean Green are 6-4 outright and 7-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 52-14 home win over Florida International. They’ve been able to put up points this season, but their defense is pretty damn bad. North Texas will run the ball straight down their opponents throats and QB Austin Aune has a big arm.
The UAB Blazers are 4-5 outright and 3-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 44-38 overtime loss to Texas-San Antonio. There were very little defense playing in that game. This game had a chance to still be going on had UAB scored in the second overtime.
This game should have some unreal numbers on the scoreboard. North Texas is better than you think and their offense should keep pace with UAB. I’m taking the points in this game.
QUICK HITS
Liberty at UConn (+14.5) – My pick is Liberty
Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech (-1.5) – My pick is Miami (FL)
Florida State at Syracuse (+7) – My pick is Florida State
Pitt at Virginia (+3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh
Notre Dame vs Navy (+15.5) – My pick is Navy
Oklahoma at West Virginia (+7.5) – My pick is Oklahoma
East Carolina at Cincinnati (-5.5) – My pick is East Carolina
Washington at Oregon (-13.5) – My pick is Oregon
Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears
Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina (-4) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
BONUS PICKS!
UL Monroe at Georgia State (-13.5) – My pick is Georgia State
James Madison at Old Dominion(+7.5) – My pick is James Madison
Texas State at South Alabama (-16.5) – My pick is South Alabama
Wyoming at Colorado State (+9) – My pick is Wyoming
Florida Atlantic at Florida International (+15.5) – My pick is FIU
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 137-110-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.